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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #421
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:05am Apr 15, 2015 9:05am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #422
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:08am Apr 15, 2015 9:08am
Thursday
4:30
04/16/15
AU Number of employed
(AU Employment Change), Australia, AUDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
04/16/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
40% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #423
  • Apr 15, 2015 12:47pm Apr 15, 2015 12:47pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

The attack on Mario Draghi during a press conference on April 15.

As expected, the main event of the medium began publishing the interest rates of the ECB and the Bank of Canada, or rather, not even the fact, and their accompanying protocols and comments. Despite the peaceful application Mario Draghi, the event was his press conference had enough restless.
Bank of Canada until the "hawk"
Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged, according to expectations, but more hawkish protocols and higher oil prices have fallen off the US dollar in the pair USDCAD.
According to the minutes Markets concluded that the Bank of Canada is in no hurry to cut rates: inflation risks are balanced; expectations of growth in the economy for 2015 have been reduced from 2.1% to 1.9%, expectations for 2016 increased from 2.4% to 2.5%; GDP will begin to strengthen in the second quarter, and while "zero" growth. The overall forecast for the consumer price index increased. Bank of Canada shows no sign of easing monetary policy in the near future, the markets stopped at 8% chance of rate cut before the end of 2015.
Bullard (Fed): Monetary policy Fed remains soft and will depend on economic statistics. Expects higher inflation to the target level of 2%.
"The end of the dictatorship of the ECB"
German Finance Minister said that no one expects solutions Greek issue on April 24 Eurogroup. S & P lowered the sovereign rating of Greece from B- to CCC +, with which we congratulate her.
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged:
Main Refinancing Rate 0,05%
Deposit Facility Rate -0,2%
Marginal Lending Facility 0,3%
At a press conference, Mario Draghi in addition to being given a dose of adrenaline from attacks protesting, shouting, "The End of the dictatorship of the ECB", was quite calm in terms of their applications, in fact, as his statements were "completely calm" in terms of reaction from the EUR. Volatility was of course, but this is normal for this type of events, nothing wrong.
- Exit prospects and exit the QE program is still too early to discuss
- The economic recovery is gaining momentum
- The issue of Greece is not affected in its entirety, on the face of neglect, as a small problem for the ECB, or the establishment of such an impression

FEMEN attack with confetti on Mario Draghi, as it was
http://coub.com/view/5y5nh
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #424
  • Apr 15, 2015 1:20pm Apr 15, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting vvFish
Thursday 4:30 04/16/15 AU Number of employed (AU Employment Change), Australia, AUDUSD Average response when triggered flip-flops 45.00 points in the first minute after the release. 35% probability trades. Thursday 17:30 04/16/15 US natural gas reserves GOOD (US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release. 40% probability trades.
@vvFish what is your standard deviation for the #NG and #OIL reserve? I am planning to look in to them ... such a nice beauty to ride the movement.
Risk Less Gain More, Trade Less Make More
  • #425
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:36am Apr 16, 2015 9:36am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #426
  • Apr 16, 2015 9:44am Apr 16, 2015 9:44am
Friday
11:30
04/17/15
GB The number of unemployed
(GB Claimant Count Change), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Friday
15:30
04/17/15
CA The core consumer price index
(CA Core CPI), Canada, EURCAD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.

Friday
15:30
04/17/15
CA The core retail sales
(CA Core Retail Sales), Canada, EURCAD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.
Friday
15:30
04/17/15
The core US consumer price index
(US Core CPI), the United States, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.

Friday
15:30
04/17/15
The core US consumer price index
(US Core CPI), the United States, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #427
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:56pm Apr 16, 2015 10:56pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Markets are now talking about 56% probability of a rate cut at the RBA

Reserve Bank of Australia seems to gets a pair of aces in their hands and likely to reduce the interest rate is reduced from 70% to 56%. Published data of the labor market rather optimistic.
AU Employment Change 37.7K vs. 15K
AU Labor Force Participation Rate 64.8% against 64.6%
AU Unemployment Rate 6.1% vs. 6.3%
At the time of publication AUD rose 70 points and ends the day on the rise.
RBA Edwards: Australia's GDP is too weak to have the ability to reduce unemployment.
Lacker (Fed) wants to raise rates in June.
Stanley Fischer (Fed): The first quarter was a mild economic recovery that will increase in the second quarter.
In the wake of the German counterpart, the French Minister of Finance also notes the low probability of an agreement on the Greek question April 24 meeting of the Eurogroup.
Riksbank, also known as the Central Bank of Sweden, following the low inflation, and ready to take action if necessary, and we'll already know how it is.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #428
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:08am Apr 17, 2015 2:08am
Quoting vvFish
Thoughts on "smart traders" Markets are now talking about 56% probability of a rate cut at the RBA Reserve Bank of Australia seems to gets a pair of aces in their hands and likely to reduce the interest rate is reduced from 70% to 56%. Published data of the labor market rather optimistic. AU Employment Change 37.7K vs. 15K AU Labor Force Participation Rate 64.8% against 64.6% AU Unemployment Rate 6.1% vs. 6.3% At the time of publication AUD rose 70 points and ends the day on the rise. RBA Edwards: Australia's GDP is too weak to have the ability...
Good morning vvFish,

Could you tell us where do you find information about forecasts of different analysts for the different news?

Thank you in advance and good luck!
  • #429
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:38am Apr 17, 2015 2:38am
Quoting sEit89
{quote} Good morning vvFish, Could you tell us where do you find information about forecasts of different analysts for the different news? Thank you in advance and good luck!
Here: http://www.fxnewskiller.com/dashboard

Use the in-built Google Web-page Translator in Chrome/Firefox (if you don't speak Russian)
  • #430
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:50am Apr 17, 2015 2:50am
Quoting Lizardman
{quote} Here: http://www.fxnewskiller.com/dashboard Use the in-built Google Web-page Translator in Chrome/Firefox (if you don't speak Russian)
That's very nice, thank you Lizardman.

Good luck!
  • #431
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:12am Apr 17, 2015 3:12am
At 8:30 am EST the US will release Core CPI and Canada will release Core CPI and Core Retail Sales. Because of the potencial conflict i suggest to skip them.

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #432
  • Apr 17, 2015 7:37am Apr 17, 2015 7:37am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #433
  • Apr 17, 2015 9:07am Apr 17, 2015 9:07am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #434
  • Apr 17, 2015 10:53am Apr 17, 2015 10:53am
Monday
1:45
20/04/15
NZ Consumer Price Index HOT!
(NZ CPI), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
40% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #435
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:46pm Apr 19, 2015 2:46pm
NZ Consumer Price Index
NZ CPI

Forecasts for the indicator rather interesting - analysts expect capital of New Zealand's annual inflation approaching the turn of inflation / deflation: the forecast of 0.2% and -0.2% in quarterly terms.
If data will be indeed so close to the 0% mark, it would be logical to observe an increase in speculation about a rate cut after the RBNZ. The slightest decline in fact the news from the forecast in this case will be more profitable for us in terms of trade news.
Please note that publication time for us not quite traditional, and liquidity of the market at this time will remain low, against the background of increased likelihood of delays oceanic publication should cause you extra stomach cramps.

In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to varying degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
NZ Consumer Price Index
date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast
Reaction trading pairs in paragraphs
Comments
20/01/2015 -0.2 Fall 38 pairs
23/10/2014 -0.2 Fall 25 pairs
07/16/2014 -0.1 30 Fall couple
04/16/2014 35 0.2 Fall couple
01/20/2014 42 0.2 Growth couples
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #436
  • Apr 19, 2015 11:02pm Apr 19, 2015 11:02pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

While the Fed doubts Canada closes doors.

Strong Statistics Canada last week casts market expectations. Inflation United States is trying to blow up the coals fire solutions raising interest rates. Marie Draghi gets his share of confetti. Expectations are moved to Australia.
Annual inflation in SSCHA close to the target
Since the beginning of the week US statistics upset markets weak retail sales data: 0.4% versus 0.7% for the benchmark, against the background of the completion of the quarterly reporting period (April data for March) may indicate a weaker result, first quarter GDP.
However, Friday's inflation data somewhat smoothed pessimistic view of the prospects for monetary policy the US Federal Reserve, the monthly Core CPI remained in the neutral zone (actual 0.2%, forecast 0.2%), but the annualized index gained weight to 1 8% in fact. As a result, this figure is closer to the inflation target of 2% of the Fed, also in March was the second month in a row, which showed growth of CPI.
Questions to US statistics remains more questions than answers.
Canada closes the door
In January the Bank of Canada also left the door to further interest rate cut open, then after this week, we can assume that the door was "almost closed".
The first blow was the minutes of the meeting of BC, published on Wednesday - in them there was not a hint of plans for further monetary easing.
The second blow was the publication of statistics parallel increase in retail sales and the level of Canadian inflation:
a. CPI significantly higher than forecast (Core CPI 0,6% against 0.3%)
b. Retail sales have shown excellent growth (Core Retail Sales 2,0% vs. 0.7%)
Undoubtedly, Canada helps and "stabilization" of oil prices and the growth of Brent over the past week and does become a good crutch for the loonie.
Dim the ECB press conference could not be diluted
While Greek negotiations reach an impasse, Mario Draghi was pleased with the overall situation around the QE and a common European statistics over the last reading.
It seems no one is beyond doubt that the Eurogroup meeting April 24 will not work in the Greek question. This position was taken as representatives of the German and the French government.
Despite confetti at a press conference by Mario Draghi, holiday volatility of this event has not been sown: the basic position remains unchanged - the program will run until September 2016, the conclusions of its effectiveness upon to do early, but "perspective" can already be considered positive.
Uncertain sterling
UK inflation remained balanced on a tightrope: 0% per annum based on the results of March (the second month in a row).
Pound remains in "limbo", even after the publication of labor market statistics, which did not clarify the future prospects of the monetary policy of the Bank of England:
Average Earnings Index 1,7% vs. 1.8%
Claimant Count Change -20,7K against -29,5K
Sterling will continue to watch their statistics, the nearest of which - the minutes of the Central Bank, retail sales and the final chord in the form of preliminary first quarter GDP data.
A strong labor market in Australia rejects expectations
If at the beginning of the week the markets laid the 70% probability of chance the RBA interest rate cut, after the publication of the data of the labor market, this figure dropped to 56%.
The reason for that was the strong profile data packet indicator:
Employment Change 37,7K vs. 15K forecast
Reducing unemployment rate to 6.1% (previous 6.3%).
The next blow quotes AUD will be done on Wednesday at the time of publication of quarterly changes in the rate of inflation CPI.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #437
  • Apr 20, 2015 8:41am Apr 20, 2015 8:41am
Wednesday
4:30
04/22/15
AU Consumer Price Index GOOD
(AU CPI), Australia, AUDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
40% probability trades.

Wednesday
11:30
04/22/15
GB Minutes of the meeting of BA
(GB MPC Official Bank Rate Votes), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 40.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #438
  • Apr 21, 2015 2:46am Apr 21, 2015 2:46am
Tuesday April 21, 2015

At 5:00 am EST Germany will release ZEW Economic Sentiment. Expected at 55.6 after a prior of 54.8.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #439
  • Apr 21, 2015 4:09am Apr 21, 2015 4:09am
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_7.png Size: 147 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #440
  • Apr 22, 2015 11:59am Apr 22, 2015 11:59am
Thursday
4:45
04/23/15
CN manufacturing PMI index
(CN HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI), China, AUDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
10:30
04/23/15
EU manufacturing PMI index Germany
(EU German Flash Manufacturing PMI), the EU, EURUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
11:30
04/23/15
GB Retail Sales HOT!
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
04/23/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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