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  • #55,921
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:38am Apr 15, 2015 9:38am
Quoting ZeF
{quote} A truly weird day during UK session. Got stopped at BE on GA after a +38pip move. I wonder if the EUR spike was because of Draghi being told he's a criminal by those protesters during his press conference. You should've seen his face, when the girl threw those papers at him. http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...P=share_btn_fb
Sad i'm not trying to understand PA
  • #55,922
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:46am Apr 15, 2015 9:46am
Quoting ZeF
{quote} A truly weird day during UK session. Got stopped at BE on GA after a +38pip move. I wonder if the EUR spike was because of Draghi being told he's a criminal by those protesters during his press conference. You should've seen his face, when the girl threw those papers at him. http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...P=share_btn_fb
Wow...

Maybe she lost a large position following one of Draghi's speeches?
Focus on the process and the profits will follow
  • #55,923
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:49am Apr 15, 2015 9:49am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Donquixote, First, you need to learn the basic 5-Method. This EURAUD H1 trade is a classic example of the 5-Method setup. It is Price Action at Support and Resistance PSAR, then let the TDI cross as confirmation of the PASR. what is the PA? where is the resistance (for sell)? {image} regards,

Hey Emmanuel,

Do you trust in the simple, clear APB PA or you go for a double check by Japanese candlestick bars before take any decision?

Thanks
  • #55,924
  • Apr 15, 2015 10:14am Apr 15, 2015 10:14am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Donquixote, First, you need to learn the basic 5-Method. This EURAUD H1 trade is a classic example of the 5-Method setup. It is Price Action at Support and Resistance PSAR, then let the TDI cross as confirmation of the PASR. what is the PA? where is the resistance (for sell)? {image} regards,
Hi emmanuel

Hoping you can provide me with some clarity.

Posting my trades so I (and others) can learn.

I took the same trade and exited at the 50 ema when price pulled back from the candle's low.

I re-entered on the next candle when it broke the prior candle's low. The next two candles concerned me a bit as the APB bodies were small. I decided to stay in the trade and set a SL about 40 pips away when i had to leave the computer. At the same time, the power went off, eish. The spike took out my SL. I realise I should never have entered the second trade as the logical stop should have been at the high of LO which was very far away.

Looking at W and D charts, the trend looks down, however price could be in the beginning stages of a wide range period.
Yesterday price closed up. Should the bias for trading today have been long?
In hindsight, should the shorts not have been taken?
Or, given the long bias, should I have expected smaller movements and obviously not taken the second trade?
Edit: Should have exited prior to news.

These conflicts tend to make my thinking unclear and invariably lead to failed trades.

Regards
Axiom

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,925
  • Apr 15, 2015 11:30am Apr 15, 2015 11:30am
Quoting Axiom
{quote} Hi emmanuel Hoping you can provide me with some clarity. Posting my trades so I (and others) can learn. I took the same trade and exited at the 50 ema when price pulled back from the candle's low. I re-entered on the next candle when it broke the prior candle's low. The next two candles concerned me a bit as the APB bodies were small. I decided to stay in the trade and set a SL about 40 pips away when i had to leave the computer. At the same time, the power went off, eish. The spike took out my SL. I realise I should never have entered the...
We're programmed by mother nature to be attracted by bright colors (anthocyanins, antioxidants, etc.).
I got into the same situation today as well. Got late at the office (about 1 hour into London) and entered on the second candle - price was going nowhere so I decided to exit, anticipating big moves due to Draghi's talk.
In hindsight, the daily was either long or about 150-200 pip sideways. Not a short situation anyway. Tonight I was wondering why did I take that trade when it was clearly a counter trade and it is one of my rules not to enter such situations. I guess that big red candle was just too irresistible.




Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EA BE.png Size: 50 KB
Best regards, Zef
  • #55,926
  • Apr 15, 2015 11:34am Apr 15, 2015 11:34am
Quoting Axiom
{quote} Hi emmanuel Hoping you can provide me with some clarity. Posting my trades so I (and others) can learn. I took the same trade and exited at the 50 ema when price pulled back from the candle's low. I re-entered on the next candle when it broke the prior candle's low. The next two candles concerned me a bit as the APB bodies were small. I decided to stay in the trade and set a SL about 40 pips away when i had to leave the computer. At the same time, the power went off, eish. The spike took out my SL. I realise I should never have entered the...

Hi Axiom,

Tough day for intraday H1 traders.
We use the 50EMA and 200EMA as dynamic support and resistance, and we must use them to see CONFLUENCE with other support and resistance. For H1 intraday, we use the Day OHLC as support and resistance too. These together with the price round number 00 and 50, are places where we see Pa for market reaction.

Do not use EMA alone for exit. Look for confluence with other support and resistance.

Weekly trend is bearish, and the Day is in retracement for 2 days. The Day bias for today Wed 15 Apr is not strong because Tues D candle did not close above Monday' High. See chart below.
Plus the 200EMA above with BRN 1.400 confluence will cause reaction but not necessary reversal. We don't know reversal until we see that happen with price action and confirmation in higher TF H4.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD 15 Apr H1 Axiom reply.png Size: 118 KB


Those 2 H1 long candle during Tokyo session must be given more attention. What we should do is always look higher TF H4 to see those 2 candles and what they show us. I saw a H4 reverse Hammer of some call hang-man which is a bearish sign.

I made a H4 chart earlier for another forum group but did not post it here.
See below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD 15 Apr H4 setup example.png Size: 74 KB


But to sum up, EURAUD is trading in a range seen on H4 with WRB. This makes trading TMS difficult until we see price breaks out of the range and start to trend again.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,927
  • Apr 15, 2015 11:40am Apr 15, 2015 11:40am
Quoting cr1982
{quote} Hey Emmanuel, Do you trust in the simple, clear APB PA or you go for a double check by Japanese candlestick bars before take any decision? Thanks

Hi,

I use the real price bar/Japanese candlesticks to see the Price Action not the APB.

I only look at the APB body size to see the strength of the average price. APB with small body and long wicks is early warning of potential phase change and this can be confirm with the price bar action.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,928
  • Apr 15, 2015 11:46am Apr 15, 2015 11:46am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Folks, after my post above, a few PMs asking me where should be target profit. Well, I don't know and i don't have a crystal ball to look at and see how much further it will fall to but I look at historical swing levels for long term position trading. Anyway, this week target should be quite close ... ard 1.3200. Then we look at the price action and protect and add-on pos. The two historical levels are shown in the chart below. {image} we manage the downside of all trades with proper volatility stops, and we let the market decide where...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1429087963

target 1.31179 hit today.
more downside tomorrow? maybe or maybe not.
a pause will be good.

time for me to get some sleep, it is almost 5am here and it has been a very long day.

talk again tomorrow when London open.

goodnight folks.... be good.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,929
  • Apr 15, 2015 11:50am Apr 15, 2015 11:50am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Axiom, Tough day for intraday H1 traders. We use the 50EMA and 200EMA as dynamic support and resistance, and we must use them to see CONFLUENCE with other support and resistance. For H1 intraday, we use the Day OHLC as support and resistance too. These together with the price round number 00 and 50, are places where we see Pa for market reaction. Do not use EMA alone for exit. Look for confluence with other support and resistance. Weekly trend is bearish, and the Day is in retracement for 2 days. The Day bias for today Wed 15 Apr is not...
Thanks for your detailed response. I appreciate it.

Yours too ZeF.

I need to pay more attention to PA.


Rgds
Axiom
  • #55,930
  • Apr 15, 2015 5:24pm Apr 15, 2015 5:24pm
Two trades this morning. Manually closed both due to high impact news ahead. EUR/AUD +47 pips and EUR/USD +18 pips.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #55,931
  • Apr 15, 2015 7:40pm Apr 15, 2015 7:40pm
Quoting hsn100
Hi! I have studied Bid E posts and i thought that he was in favor of trading H4 timeframe whereas most experienced traders like Emmanuel 7788, Omonisha trade H1 TF. i know the question sounds ridiculous to experienced traders but my purpose is just to learn. Regards,
Hi hsn,

Eelfranz started in his early days trading M15 and H1, he later progressed on to trade H4 which suits his lifestyle. Trading higher TF is less stressful and also over a loner term the results are much better.

I trade three different timeframes H1, H4 and D1 to suit my personal lifestyle and to help me achieve my financial goal spread over a longer period.

Read Post#52,347 using TMS 5-Method develop 3 systems... with SMART objectives.

Most traders like to trade lower TF like M15 and H1 becasue of the lure to make money fast everyday. But the rate of success is not high.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,932
  • Apr 15, 2015 8:24pm Apr 15, 2015 8:24pm
Quoting Saionbus
I read a research about 10000 hours practise can make you a expert on any field. Looking at myself as a beginner on forex, if I learn and practice 3 hours/day, it almost need 10 years. Oh my god. For a full time trader, 3 to 5 years should be ok. I remember Big E devoted thousands of hours on it. Now TMS may make that easier. May I poll on that? How many hours did you pay to get sustainable profiting abilities?

Hi Saionbus,

There 10,000 hours rule has its merits especially when it comes to developing skills to reach the level of an expert. It has a lot to do with the conditioning of both body and mind to that of en expert.
This not necessary apply to trading although trading in itself is s skill based activity. It requires a lot of different knowledge and skill sets to function on everyday basis as a trader. I do not believe that anyone can become an expert trader. I believe one can become a super trader through peak performance and it is an ongoing everyday work in progress to maintain being a super trader. It is like having the body and mind of a marathon runner, once he has trained and conditioned his body, his mind takes control and keep the race going. There will be period of fatigue when stamina reaches its threshold and requires rest. Then the run continues....

Eelfranz spent 6,000 hours Post#6 learning to be a trader after his retirement and he evolved as a trader over the years. He learn commercial trading systems he bought and went on developed two trading methods - 5-Method and 21/233 Method.

Question is: Do we need to spend 6,000 hours to learn how these two trading methods work?
Answer is NO. It depends on the basic trading knowledge of the person who wants to trade these methods. I think for someone who had traded for two years and knows the MT4 trading platform well enough, he/she does not need more than 100 hours to learn TMS , then setup his/her charts and start technical trading immediately.
To reach consistency in profitability over a long term requires a lot more time and work. This cannot be measured in term of hours alone. There are dynamics and many variables which are different in different individual.

Looking back 8 years to when I started out as a fulltime trader, I have clocked more than 12,000 hours. Most of these hours were spent learning things related to trading, studying other trading methods and systems, learning different money management strategies and testing them, etc. Of these 12,000 hours, I learned many things which I must not do trading and spend hours to unlearn these things.
The most recent 3000 hours were spent on reading, researching and working on psychological matters relating to trading, managing the emotions while trading, and practice, practice, practice everyday.
I know now that I have reached peak performance and my confidence level is high. It will be continuous work hours to maintain this.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,933
  • Apr 15, 2015 8:30pm Apr 15, 2015 8:30pm
Quoting okoso
{quote} I am new here, and still learning things. I read a lot the post and particularly those written by seniors like you, big Emm. i hope I will soon start contributing to this great thread by posting my trades, well bad ones and also good ones. Can you please explain a little bit what you mean by "the only support and resistance I trust on my charts are those where I see there is confluence of supp/res and price action." Thank you very much.

Hi okoso,

here is the most recent example using AUDUSD...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD D1 chart example CONFLUENCE SnR.png Size: 94 KB


we look for an area or zone on our charts to see price action around the confluence (meeting zone) of several common use support and resistance.
Support and resistance is not one price line. It should be a small area or zone for us to look at the price action. Often we draw a line and we see price overshoot that support or resistance line by 50 to 100 pips depends on the currency pair.



regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,934
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:34pm Apr 15, 2015 9:34pm
Hi Emm.

Thank you very much for the clear answer. I hope my question and your answer helped many others.

Regards,

Okoso
  • #55,935
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:41pm Apr 15, 2015 9:41pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Saionbus, There 10,000 hours rule has its merits especially when it comes to developing skills to reach the level of an expert. It has a lot to do with the conditioning of both body and mind to that of en expert. This not necessary apply to trading although trading in itself is s skill based activity. It requires a lot of different knowledge and skill sets to function on everyday basis as a trader. I do not believe that anyone can become an expert trader. I believe one can become a super trader through peak performance and it is an ongoing...
Appreciate for your response Emmanuel. You give me more hope to see the sunrise. I will do my best to go through the darkness.
Good luck for all.
  • #55,936
  • Apr 15, 2015 11:10pm Apr 15, 2015 11:10pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Axiom, Tough day for intraday H1 traders. We use the 50EMA and 200EMA as dynamic support and resistance, and we must use them to see CONFLUENCE with other support and resistance. For H1 intraday, we use the Day OHLC as support and resistance too. These together with the price round number 00 and 50, are places where we see Pa for market reaction. Do not use EMA alone for exit. Look for confluence with other support and resistance. Weekly trend is bearish, and the Day is in retracement for 2 days. The Day bias for today Wed 15 Apr is not...
Hi Emm, just a quick clarification

For a H1 intraday trader like me, it would be best I plot my S&R lines based on:

a) Previous month highest, lowest and opening price
b) Previous week highest, lowest and opening price
c) Previous day highest, lowest and opening price

with 10, 50, 200EMA and BRNs 00/50 as dynamic S&R

Hope I got that right
  • #55,937
  • Apr 15, 2015 11:21pm Apr 15, 2015 11:21pm
Quoting shay14
{quote} i use supdem indicator on 15min charts i trade tdi crosses above 50 for longs and under 50 for shorts for example tdi crosses here long, i didn't take it but it went through the resistance {image}
https://charts.mql5.com/7/553/eurtry...rities-llc.png
Hi,

You are looking at a very small portion of your chart. Since you are trading M15, keep that simple, zoom out look at the previous Day open High Low Close and use those lines as your support and resistance. There is no need for any of those Supply and Demand indicators like the Super_Dem II, its is useless when the price is in small range and consolidating.
You observe all currency pairs, the Asian range is usually narrow and the Asian channel right from the day open until the hour before the Frankfurt Open FO, the range is narrow. Market liquidity will increase after FO and LO on most days.
In your chart above, you will see the Asian session set the low and that low was tested by the FO and LO candles. the previous day was bullish close, the new day Open line is there for your support and trade away from that Day Open.

Set up you charts with the Synergy-pro-APB and Synergy_Pro TDI indciators. These are all you need and saved your chart template.
Forget about the matrix Stochastic because you want to see the price action on the charrts and not colourful matrix which is distraction.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,938
  • Apr 15, 2015 11:56pm Apr 15, 2015 11:56pm
Hello,

Previous Daily High broken + a pullback candle + MC Broken pushed me to entry in this trade. Made 35 pips. But it has been counter trend. TP Moved to 1.48780.

Has anyone of the seniors taken the same?

Feedback appreciated, thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade TMS.jpg Size: 323 KB
  • #55,939
  • Edited 12:34am Apr 16, 2015 12:12am | Edited 12:34am
Quoting arize
{quote} Hi Emm, just a quick clarification For a H1 intraday trader like me, it would be best I plot my S&R lines based on: a) Previous month highest, lowest and opening price b) Previous week highest, lowest and opening price c) Previous day highest, lowest and opening price with 10, 50, 200EMA and BRNs 00/50 as dynamic S&R Hope I got that right

Hi Arize,

It is always 4 prices - its Open, High, Low and Close of the MN, W1 and D1 candles and we use these price lines as natural support and resistance because they are always there in every candle.
You may see the close of the previous candle and the open of the next candle are the same. They are often not the case. This is important to know it now because when we later look at Wide Range Bar on our charts and use that to filter and to avoid trading those TDI cross setups which often fails, the gap between candle close and next candle open makes a lot of difference.

I suggest you use the Synergy-Pro_APB which has the Price Action Channel PAC build-in. This PAC is based on a 9EMA calibrated with high-low to create the channel. With this PAC, you dont need the 10EMA. You can use the PAC as a filter for picking the higher probability setups with TDI cross to trade.

For H1 intraday trading, the previous D1 and W1 OHLC are good enough, otherwise there will be too many horizontal lines on our charts and make it cluttered with lines. However, when you trade with a longer term perspective, then the previous MN OHLC which are in the proximity of the current price action is important. Look at NZDJPY H1 today. The H1 price action had broken last MN Open and re-tested that line and form a hammer. We see that is a continuation after the H4 reversal seen this week.

The use of 50 and 200 EMAs as dynamic support and resistance is good. We see how price reacts around these commonly use MAs especially when they are in confluence with the big round numbers '00'.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,940
  • Apr 16, 2015 12:15am Apr 16, 2015 12:15am
Quoting cr1982
Hello, Previous Daily High broken + a pullback candle + MC Broken pushed me to entry in this trade. Made 35 pips. But it has been counter trend. TP Moved to 1.48780. Has anyone of the seniors taken the same? Feedback appreciated, thanks {image}

Yes, I added 2nd pos today and target ~1.5000

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD week 16 D1 trades.png Size: 64 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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