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Trading Made Simple

  • #55,801
  • Apr 12, 2015 2:06pm Apr 12, 2015 2:06pm
2015 Week 15 - Trade Summary:

2 trades in total:
- 1 win
- 1 BE
- 0 Losses

I'm posting this later than normal as I spent the weekend surfing with friends. A really quiet week for me last week, but after a couple of PMs I've put a summary together. There was some really nice movement on EA H1 which I know a few traders have posted already (Phx62 and Pervis).

Anyway, only two trades this week and I finished on +4% so still a good week on the whole. However, some of my trading decisions were not the best and the potential was there to take a lot more. The LO candle set the high or low of the London session all five days last week giving great opportunities to trade away from it.

Monday: With Monday being bank holiday across most of Europe I didn't expect much movement and as a result had already decided not to trade it. The LO candle set the low for the session with a nice pin bar. From here price trended up but with the low volatility it would have been tricky to get 50 pips out of the move which lasted around six hours.

Tuesday: I have learnt from previous losses that it is generally better to avoid the London session on this pair following a large move in the Asian session. The recent AUD Cash Rate and RBA Rate Statement have given large moves and this month's releases were no different. London and NY moved mostly sideways and, had I entered at London on a break below the news candles it would have resulted in a break even trade.

Wednesday: I opened my charts at the end of the Frankfurt candle to see that FO hadn't quite dropped below Tuesday's low. I waited to see how LO reacted to this level. It wasn't until the last few minutes of the LO candle that it dropped below this level so I waited for confirmation from the next candle. I was still slightly hesitant since it was now the 7th red candle and the TDI had crossed some time ago. Price eventually dropped and hit my TP after stalling for several hours. (+50, +4%)

Thursday: I got to my charts at LO to look for a possible entry. The LO candle was the 7th consecutive red candle and with no obvious PA confirmation that I could see, I wasn't confident enough to take entry short. I ended up sat on the sidelines for what turned out to be the best London session of the week. In all price continued to complete a streak of 18 red candles with an LO entry being good for around 140 pips.

Friday: I took a TMS entry once the LO candle broke below FO. Price moved well in the first hour but then stalled and I moved SL to BE once price had moved to +30. Price moved to within a pip of my TP only to see it draw back and take me out at BE . The rest of London and NY moved sideways with little volatility apparent for the last few hours of the week.

These past few months, all of my trades have been on a demo account but I've been seeing some fairly good growth on the account, so I thought it was about time to setup a small live account. After a few problems with my FX-Open demo broker I took a broker recommendation from Vladbold and setup a live micro account with XM Markets. Looking forward to the next challenge of live trading
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Focus on the process and the profits will follow
  • #55,802
  • Apr 12, 2015 2:49pm Apr 12, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting Ballistical
2015 Week 15 - Trade Summary: 2 trades in total: - 1 win - 1 BE - 0 Losses
Great Summary again Ballistical.
  • #55,803
  • Apr 12, 2015 3:01pm Apr 12, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting Ballistical
2015 Week 15 - Trade Summary: 2 trades in total: - 1 win - 1 BE - 0 Losses I'm posting this later than normal as I spent the weekend surfing with friends. A really quiet week for me last week, but after a couple of PMs I've put a summary together. There was some really nice movement on EA H1 which I know a few traders have posted already (Phx62 and Pervis). Anyway, only two trades this week and I finished on +4% so still a good week on the whole. However, some of my trading decisions were not the best and the potential was there to take...

Great summery of the week. Always a pleasure to read your indepth tour of the week :-) Happy trading next week!

M
MY SITTING, NEVER MY THINKING!
  • #55,804
  • Apr 12, 2015 6:44pm Apr 12, 2015 6:44pm
Quoting Axiom
{quote} Thanks for your response emmanuel. I had disregarded candle A as a WRB because the next candle had extended beyond its range (low). I see i should not have too rigid rules for defining PA. Candle A could very almost be deemed to be a MC if not for that next candle. That WRB on 17 March was caused by FOMC news. Some questions: - How much importance should one attach to the WRB that was set 13 days before? - Depending on answer to above, I suppose as long as price was ranging within that WRB then take only LTF trades as you have mentioned?...

Hi,

The WRB range is set by the price bar/candle high-low. That would be the range and use that as our support and resistance levels. The following candle(s) must close either above or below the WRB High-Low to be consider a the breakout bar/candle.

The D1 candle on the FOMC 18 Mar set the high -low range (~465pips) and is still valid is the intermediate support and resistance. We can trade H4 within this range.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,805
  • Apr 12, 2015 6:53pm Apr 12, 2015 6:53pm
Quoting Axiom
{quote} Hi emmanuel The values vary depending on the period selected. If you don't mind, would you share what period you use and why your selection? Rgds Axiom
Hi,

For H1 intraday trading, I look at the recent 12 weeks data, which is about the past 3 months. It is important to know the average number of pips a H1 candle moves during the different time of the day, to know its volatility behaviour.
There will be days, for example AU moved has reached or exceeded its Day range in the Asian session in reaction to news event, then we must not expect it to move beyond its Day range in the next market session like London session.
Similarly, when trading the London session, observing the day's high - low is important as it run into the NY session.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,806
  • Apr 12, 2015 7:07pm Apr 12, 2015 7:07pm
Quoting Ballistical
2015 Week 15 - Trade Summary: 2 trades in total: - 1 win - 1 BE - 0 Losses I'm posting this later than normal as I spent the weekend surfing with friends. A really quiet week for me last week, but after a couple of PMs I've put a summary together. There was some really nice movement on EA H1 which I know a few traders have posted already (Phx62 and Pervis). Anyway, only two trades this week and I finished on +4% so still a good week on the whole. However, some of my trading decisions were not the best and the potential was there to take...

Hi,

You missed Thursday' PA - the FO candle was an Inside Bar and the LO candle was the breakout candle.
Also... the 7th H1 candle is within the 2nd H4 candle in the running series.

Not sure what you think about this:
- to also look at the Asian session range traded and the candle size of the H1 before the FO, this sometimes give the setup for LO trading.
- consider both the FO and LO candles as PA and use the range for trading during the London session.
Friday was an example which we see often happens.


regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,807
  • Apr 12, 2015 9:00pm Apr 12, 2015 9:00pm
Quoting ZeF
For some time now I've been seeing the same questions being asked to the same people, over and over again, but in different ways and with different vocabulary. Most of those questions have to do with the TDI indicator and how good it works or how bad it sucks. TMS entries result in SL's being hit when the setups are followed blindly and PRICE ACTION is ignored. Big E in many of his posts did talk about the TDI and made it clear how it works and he was also clear on PRICE ACTION and how the TDI is the core of the method but linked with PA. He did...

There is a lot more to these .... to make trading profitable.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,808
  • Apr 12, 2015 9:47pm Apr 12, 2015 9:47pm
Quoting ZeF
For some time now I've been seeing the same questions being asked to the same people, over and over again, but in different ways and with different vocabulary. Most of those questions have to do with the TDI indicator and how good it works or how bad it sucks. TMS entries result in SL's being hit when the setups are followed blindly and PRICE ACTION is ignored. Big E in many of his posts did talk about the TDI and made it clear how it works and he was also clear on PRICE ACTION and how the TDI is the core of the method but linked with PA. He did...
Thanks ZeF for the reads. I will read deeper into it today.

I was following GN quite closely, and have made about 150+ pips. I realised I was getting close to the strategy by following the day trends, and finding a good entry in M30/H1. But the major part of my trading work/business is in the money management and discipline itself. I have blown my profits on being too greedy and going against rules by placing too much lots and it resulted more $$$ loss in just 1 losing trade.

How do the senior traders here manage their money and sometimes when I trade on $1/pip, I really got too impatient in seeing the returns. And then when I tried on a bigger lot, the trade just went against me....

Apart from the MM, GN seems to be on a support level. Its in mid month, and I really hope I could earn back my losses in April

Btw, anyone is watching EA too?
  • #55,809
  • Apr 12, 2015 10:04pm Apr 12, 2015 10:04pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi, I draw the month OHLC manually on my chart to see the previous month's OHLC onto the current month for trading. This way, I will not clutter my charts with lines going back into history. You can use the platform tool to draw horizontal segment lines and drop them on the MN candle OHLC. This way, you will never have to rely on MT4. But for the purpose do visual back-testing in history, I have an indicator which will plot the MN OHLC in history chart. This indicator will only show the previous MN OHLC on D1, H4, H1 chart timeframes for...
thanks a lot!
  • #55,810
  • Apr 13, 2015 12:20am Apr 13, 2015 12:20am
Quoting birdnest
{quote} Thanks ZeF for the reads. I will read deeper into it today. I was following GN quite closely, and have made about 150+ pips. I realised I was getting close to the strategy by following the day trends, and finding a good entry in M30/H1. But the major part of my trading work/business is in the money management and discipline itself. I have blown my profits on being too greedy and going against rules by placing too much lots and it resulted more $$$ loss in just 1 losing trade. How do the senior traders here manage their money and sometimes...

GA, GN, EA, EN...

did you follow the TMS 5-Method Basic Rules ... Post#53,842
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #55,811
  • Apr 13, 2015 12:32am Apr 13, 2015 12:32am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} There is a lot more to these .... to make trading profitable.
For sure it is and a lot of that you and other seniors already wrote here more than once. I just feel that PA is an essential missing tool and knowledge on it is needed in order to even understand how this system performs or other issues on trading itself.
Best regards, Zef
  • #55,812
  • Apr 13, 2015 2:20am Apr 13, 2015 2:20am
Hello buddies,

I'm new to forex and i discovered this great system. I decided to study it, reading tons of these kind of posts.
I am a price action trader so i hope this strategy will support my decisions.

As newbie, i have not understood yet how DAILY OPEN signal affects my trade decisions. I read several posts about DO, especially from SJ.

Thanks to senior members job and to their teaching enthusiasm.
  • #55,813
  • Apr 13, 2015 2:56am Apr 13, 2015 2:56am
Quoting Next4467
{quote} Great Summary again Ballistical.
Quoting merrygold
{quote} Great summery of the week. Always a pleasure to read your indepth tour of the week :-) Happy trading next week! M
Thanks for the kind words. Good luck to both of you in the coming week!

Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi, You missed Thursday' PA - the FO candle was an Inside Bar and the LO candle was the breakout candle. Also... the 7th H1 candle is within the 2nd H4 candle in the running series. Not sure what you think about this: - to also look at the Asian session range traded and the candle size of the H1 before the FO, this sometimes give the setup for LO trading. - consider both the FO and LO candles as PA and use the range for trading during the London session. Friday was an example which we see often happens. regards,
Hi Emmanuel,

You're absolutely right. I completely missed the fact that Thursday's FO candle was an inside bar. Thanks for pointing it out.

Something you wrote last week keeps echoing with me...

Post #55,733:"To trade H1, we must rely more on the Price Action and the use of Support and Resistance. The TDI is only a confirmation of the price momentum which supports the Price Action. TDI is always lagging the PA."

Big E would never have entered on candle 7 or 8 without a clear TDI bounce. I believe even on bounce trades he used to prefer a candle colour change. However, he traded H4. Phx62 has stated many times that on H1, TDI is used for confirmation, as you said in your post. PA is key! I need to pay more attention to this in my H1 trading.

As for using the Asian range, that's a tough one. Certainly, in my experience a very tight Asian range can often lead to big moves during London and NY. I'm a lot less confident trading London if there have been big moves just beforehand. Combining the FO and LO candles to give a signal could keep you out of a lot of the early London moves but would equally save you from a lot of fakeouts since you'd have a better idea of the direction. Certainly something to back-test though.

Regards

Ballistical
Focus on the process and the profits will follow
  • #55,814
  • Apr 13, 2015 5:26am Apr 13, 2015 5:26am
E/a, m15 trade following a h1 triple top.
+42 pips, profit taken at 200 EMA.

And 2 losses which i won't post cause they're just too retarded.

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  • #55,815
  • Apr 13, 2015 5:37am Apr 13, 2015 5:37am
GJ on the break of FO pullback candle , closed with 51 pips
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I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #55,816
  • Apr 13, 2015 5:38am Apr 13, 2015 5:38am
hello guys i want to ask about today fake candle on E/U and the reason why we shouldnt take it please correct me if im wrong about how to handle this fake FO candle and any other opinion on how to handle this fake candle is very welcome
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  • #55,817
  • Apr 13, 2015 5:47am Apr 13, 2015 5:47am
Quoting Vladbold
E/a, m15 trade following a h1 triple top. +42 pips, profit taken at 200 EMA. And 2 losses which i won't post cause they're just too retarded. {image}
... good one there - it sounds so familiar - I think a retarded trade now and then keeps our egos in line

I took this trade and have take most of my profit off the table already - I liked the fact that the candle had such good momentum with the TDI bounce signal.
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Never give up !!!
  • #55,818
  • Apr 13, 2015 5:57am Apr 13, 2015 5:57am
Quoting theunis
{quote} ... good one there - it sounds so familiar - I think a retarded trade now and then keeps our egos in line I took this trade and have take most of my profit off the table already - I liked the fact that the candle had such good momentum with the TDI bounce signal. {image}
Haha, very true.

I would gladly take 1 retarded trade every 5 good ones - that would keep my ego in line.
Sadly i've taken about 2 retarded ones every good one these days.
  • #55,819
  • Apr 13, 2015 6:06am Apr 13, 2015 6:06am
Quoting vayzardos
hello guys i want to ask about today fake candle on E/U and the reason why we shouldnt take it please correct me if im wrong about how to handle this fake FO candle and any other opinion on how to handle this fake candle is very welcome {image}
My opinion is that the support just had to be breached by a good candle BEFORE the trade can be taken.
Sure ... there is more risk because it is then the 3rd candle but still the PA (fake candle) supports the fact that there is enough momentum for a good move.
If I do take a trade like that (which I did), I just manage it very tight in case it turns.
Never give up !!!
  • #55,820
  • Apr 13, 2015 6:12am Apr 13, 2015 6:12am
Quoting vayzardos
hello guys i want to ask about today fake candle on E/U and the reason why we shouldnt take it please correct me if im wrong about how to handle this fake FO candle and any other opinion on how to handle this fake candle is very welcome {image}
Not a senior, but i can give my 2 cents on that.

1. We all very rarely trade FO. Phx62 has a lot of great studies where he repeatadly tells us that FO is a fake-out candle more often than not. It has almost become synonymous with TMS.
2. More often than not, price will re-test the opening of each week (very well pointed out by you as the asian high), before continuing with the previous bias (short in this case)
3. The big, big daily trend that you mentioned.

Hope my comment was useful.
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