Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

maybe.....that 175.49 is guarding the portal.....if that gets taken out even by one pip, the downtrend is on....immediately or a day later....

I can do that

I called it because it wasn't too hard - but I accept the last 30-40 pips of that correction had me wondering. However, here's where it does start to get hard.

I don't think that 175.4 has much magical value any more, but I will assume here that price will soon break under there towards next 'support' at about 174.7. Whether that occurs after a retest of 177/177.5 or not is somewhat immaterial. After 175, it is this coming week's top of the weekly cloud. But note that 177 was the weekly 50 simple, which price has never closed constructively below on a weekly TF since about 124. That in itself is mildly significant. As well, the weekly momentum oscillator has turned into negative territory for the first time since 124, although that could be an aberration. Additionally, the 178 rejection was the place where it finally decided it could no longer sustain over the daily 200 simple moving average, which, along with monthly support, held it up at 174.5/7 last time. Nevertheless, there's still monthly TECHNICAL support from here down to 174.5/7 ish.

With the continuing low momentum, it could well turn out to be just a very slow and determined attempt to get down, but it really would take a break and hold under 173 to confirm. You'll also note that the 175x area is the 61.8 correction of the move up from 168. Last time, price couldn't break under there, but GJ historically has always attempted to run down into the 76.4 corrective level, now at about 173. My concern, if you can call it that, is that price may still break down vigorously at the last moment into or at least towards that place, only to come flying back up. Such has happened when it broke down in September last year and again in mid October.

At that point, or somewhere between here and 174.5/7 it could yet break up either to confirm more range trade, or to restart the up trend. In either of those cases, it would need to get over 180. And 177 would still have to provide support in any fall back.

Conversely, a solid break down would suggest (a) that it's on the way down for a minor correction towards 162/3 - with a new high to come later (b) it will pursue a 50/61.8 correction into the 150's/140/s - again just a new phase of the up trend (c) it will enter partial or total reversal. The very simple fact that the move to 189.4 was pretty much exactly 1.618 times the length of the 118/163 move still leaves open the possibility that this entire move was a correction and, try as it may, there will be no new high.

And that's why I have repeatedly said that this area could be so damned significant. For the first time in many a month, there is less ambiguity than usual. Whilst there are always two basic options, from a weekly/monthly perspective one of those options is about to play out.

Anyway, enough words from here. I just thought it decent to present my views analysis in a semi logical manner rather than pop up and just say it's bullish or bearish.

Have fun

And kudos to Rebecca Black's marvellous track, which I think should be the official Friday theme. When it's going down.

Hey Mpt, yep that 175.49 shut the door on Friday.....

Oh, also....usually these long term levels are missed by 200 pips like shoulda gone back up at 177.55....so this one, too close for what usually happens....

Thanks for the detailed explanation - much appreciated.

I am waiting with a very simple Simon plan. If 168.10 holds, might see 200 levels soon after. If not: Goodbye uptrend.

Hello again Anima,

I think you raised some good points here. I am going to have another bash at it today / tomorrow.

From other peoples posts, it seems the market for this pair is at a key point. So I may wait for a move before I post up another chart. See what it looks like tonight when the market opens.

Your reply was most helpful, I will iron out the kinks so to speak

Thanks,

T

Not a problem at all.

It all depends on what type of trading you want to do on this pair; intraday or longer term?
Rays levels are used for intraday trading. Typically involves 1-3 trades per day and each position will usually only last a couple of hours to a day.
The stuff MPT and others are talking about is longer term stuff. The scenarios will take days, weeks, months to play out.

This pair is quite volatile so be prepared for the market to move against the trend, sometimes for a couple of days. Picking your entry then becomes important.

I look forward to learning from you all over the next few weeks.

NU going down the drain on Chinese news. Looking for a 2nd entrance .73 target

if it blows through that then .688 is what im looking for

Dragon Update from March 3rd .......................

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1425442847

and current.............Just using the weekly to help with market direction.............

Whats your target on the 3rd leg?

I can not project targets, but I can tell you when it gets there..........................

hoping for 1 more rejection from 176.1 in the next 30 min for my entry south.

so much for the waiting. my sell got triggered so im in for the ride. lets get paid

moved stop to break even at the bounce of 175.5

woke up to my order triggered 175.5 SL 174.8...

I don't think it will get back to 176.1 personally so looking for an entry.

Careful remember let the market come to you don't try to force the market to you. I would be weary loading short when all the retail traders start jumping on the "sure thing"...

All the "5 year low" OMG can it go any lower?!?! articles start popping up now. Just watch out for the bounce is all.

edit: my SL is BE now lets see where this can go beautiful rejection off 175.5

Well wasn't I far from right. Lol.

well that was short lived. might try to reload again if it gets up to 176.1 if not im waiting for 175.4 fuck this ping pong