Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

With big hope that you are right

1/2 176.85/75

Add:
Be careful with buying, I recommend you to wait until monday, if DP 175.80/70 still holds you may go long there but I still think DP 175.80/70 may get a retest.

Just dodged a bullet. GU came within 2-3 pips of hitting hard SL



Currently watching pound sterling movements. Might move hard SL 10 pips just in case of 2nd retest.

175.5 is shaping up to be quite the support zone and 179 is becoming a formidable resistance. Might be ranging next few weeks until UK elections between 179-175.5. I will be longing from 175.8/175.5 area and shorting anything around 179/179.2 until a decesive break of either zones before reversing my positions and taking opposite trades at both prices with SL's above/below.

Thanks mate))

if anyones feeling super risky take a huge leveraged long 10 minutes before close today with TP 176.3 SL of like 5 pips bank on the short covers for the weekend

someone do itttt you wont...

Talzus,
Just had a look at your order.

Assuming you set the order yesterday I have a couple of observations. (chart is H1 with Rays levels on it)

1. Price would have been around point 'A' on the chart below (~177.3 ish). In order to trigger your sell order price would have had to drop approx 200 pips today, and to profit from it pice would have had to drop even further. GPY/JPY 'usually' (I use the word usually very loosly) has a daily range of about 100-200 pips.
   1. This means you were trading at the extremes of the range and therefore hoping for an unusual day. The odds of that happening, by definition, are not huge.
   2. If you were sure price was going to drop from 177.3 to 175.3 today, why wouldn't you trade the gap? If it was caution, I would suggest you were very over cautious there.

   
   
   
   
   
   

2. Your SL is over 100 pips away from your entry. In my opinion that is enormous, I usually trade with a SL of max 30pips (aiming for a max of 20pips more often than not) otherwise the risk return ratio probably won't be high enough to make it worth the trouble.
   1. Risk return ratios (RR for short) are key to profitable trading. Everyone has their own figure but I always aim for atleast 1:2 ratio, sometimes 1:3. This means with a SL of 30 pips I am hoping for a return of atleast 60 pips, maybe 90. If for what ever reason I believe the trade I am thinking about taking requires a SL of 30pips and I don't believe it will make atleast 60pips I don't take it. Wait for a better opportunity.
   2. With your SL of ~130 pips you would have needed the market to move 260 pips (on top of the 200 it had already moved to trigger your order) to satisfy my RR rules. 560 pips would have been an exceptional day, especially without any huge economic events. You need to come up with your own RR figure, I know 1:1.5 is quite common.
   3. Have a look at Rays trades when he posts them. His SLs are quite tight. I bet the initial SL on his 300pip profit in 48 hours was less than 20. An enormous RR.
   4. The only reason I can see for a SL of 100pips is if you intend on holding a position for weeks.

   
   
   
   
   
   

3. I personally always set a TP. Its heart breaking to watch the market move past your TP for what could have been a bigger profit, but I find it more heart breaking to watch the market come with 5 pips of a TP then turn against me.
   1. The only time I don't trade with a TP is when I am sat in front of my PC watching the chart. Otherwise a TP is set, especially for orders that I am holding overnight.
   2. There is a regular here called 'thegmann' who seems to post often that he wakes up to a trade he set overnight having TPed for +30pips or something similiar. Imagine starting the day off with that high.
   3. Your TP should be a minimum of your RR*SL
   4. There is nothing stopping you closing a trade early if it turns sour, There is nothing stopping you (re)moving a TP if the trade is going well.
   5. Even if you don't set a TP with your trade, atleast have one in the back of your mind. Hopping for 'as big as possible' won't get you anywhere.

   
   
   
   
   
   

4. Did you set your order using the daily chart scale that you posted yesterday? If so then you need to zoom in to set orders and trades.
   1. It is absolutely the right thing to use the large timeframes for as part of your analysis; it adds context to what you see in a day and don't forget that, but use the small timeframes as well. I prefer 15M, Ray uses 1M, others have different preferences.

   
   
   
   
   
   

5. I'm guessing that you saw the previous low on the daily timeframe at 175.7 and used that as a guide for your short?
   1. Previous highs and lows are the right thing to be using to enter and exits trades...support and resistance.
   2. The low at 175.7 on the daily is a huge/strong resistance level. Going through that today after price had moved from yesterday's 177.3 would not have happened without some kind of reaction from the market, either a pullback or price would have just gone down like a brick. This is why many of us were preparing to buy somehwere between 176 and 175.

   
   
   
   
   
   

Thats a long post I'm afraid and its just my opinion so treat it as such (I have very limited experience myself). Don't feel afraid to ask more questions, no one will get shitty here as Ray will just ban them.

Have a good weekend and make sure you check out Rays DPs on Sunday/Monday.

People are welcome of course to post observations on my observations.

Excellent post here, well done

Along what anima999 said 175.5 area is going to see a good deal of buying pressure/short covering. None of us can for sure say price isn't going to break through there and continue downwards but we are nearing very big daily/weekly support zones on GJ. These levels don't go easily and are areas where larger players scale in and out of positions they have been holding for a few days/weeks. This can cause quick reversals and spikes. Taking shorts around where you are could be a bit risky. I would say wait and see how price reacts around 175.5/175 before pulling the trigger. A break and hold below 175 opens up alot of downward pressure. A bounce and you could see your SL hit relatively quickly. We are nearing pre QE levels and fundamentals will start to come into play too. A large portion of this move is based off uncertainty regarding UK elections, a bit to do with $ strength and of course Yen resilience. Things may start to get choppy and we may go range bound again in the coming weeks as uncertainty builds and elections approach. Anyways trade safe and have a good weekend!

Wish all a nice weekend



(max Volume and bass)

Those who did actually won

oooh and 176.3 hit I was going to hold this for a few days but I think we will get another retest of 175.7 come Monday rejection off 175.7 wasn't much to my liking and I should get shot at a reload here before push up towards 179. Done for the weekend.

Thought there would be much more short covering but guess they're gunning for 175.5/175

Anima - Thank you for putting the time and effort into that replay. I will re-read it again when I get home. There is a lot of insight there that I want to make sure I understand fully.

However, I see your point about the unrealistic move. I am coming from a position where I normally over trade so I am trying to be more objective than just "chasing the red bar down" which normally ends in it slowly returning over an hr or so and taking what small profit I made. I am assuming this is a common mistake for a new trader.

never the less, I don't think when I was planning my short order I really considered much where I was placing it other than I wanted to catch a breakout if it dropped below that support. Now that you've kindly pointed out that it was more than a 200 pip drop (which I learnt the hard way today) I can see that makes little sense. A little more thought will be applied next time.

The exercise was to get the technical aspect of it correct, I realised very early this morning the mistake I'd made. In an exercise of discipline I refused to open a trade even when I could see it was going to drop as it didn't fit the plan I created yesterday (plus I'm at work, I don't like trading on a mobile).

That being said, Thank you again for the response. This was the first time I've put together any form of technical analysis. If you have no objections, I will try again next week and see what you think?

if there is a better place for me to do this, please feel free to point me in the right direction. I don't want to spam a thread where you're all busy following trades.

Have a great weekend

T

Usually I set a SL of 10 to 30 pips.. But profit depends actually. I mean I can easily set SL 30 pips, and go out with 10 in profit. I think you have to be ready to give more, than you think you will make Max what I lose is 30 pips, and maximum what I ever did on one trade was 100. I better to go out with trade with 10 pips or nothing than risking 100. Usually I close positions with 20-50 pips. So when you guys are talking about 300-500 pips on one trade that's sounds like something fantastic to me

RAY!!! Just woke up to this glorious news thanks for getting me back in

Maybe be because of leverage we are using..))

didnt take it but looks like that AU target hit also.

NU to .73 next week still looking ok

keep posting those dustbins, I'm getting into the euro scalping nowadays!!

MPT called it correctly a week before it happened. I thought there would be a resumption of the uptrend on GBP/JPY but the downtrend indeed resumed. Next stop 174?