{quote} Thanks Neio for this thread. This below (pics) is my contribution to statistical analysis. In one point I disagree with you: it's not 95% of times price moves away from the open. It's less. I considered O-C <= 0.5 pips and more or less only 85% of times price moves above or below the open.(at least for this pair). Anyway thanks {image}
Hi Sym,
Nice work. But I have one question - is your data for the hourly candle? The data may differ for the daily candle.
Nice work. But I have one question - is your data for the hourly candle? The data may differ for the daily candle.
{quote} Thanks Neio for this thread. This below (pics) is my contribution to statistical analysis. In one point I disagree with you: it's not 95% of times price moves away from the open. It's less. I considered O-C <= 0.5 pips and more or less only 85% of times price moves above or below the open.
- #123
- Edited 5:12pm Apr 11, 2015 9:43am | Edited 5:12pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
{quote} Ha..it's not my gift either. I'm hopeless Kinspk! Graphic below expresses my previous post visually. The graphic is raw. Other static points like bids/offers, handles/halfs, session highs/lows etc need to be used. By doing so, you'll get a running/continuous stream of feedback on EU performance. By omitting historical price prints, i cut through the bullshit and pick up almost instantly on 'right side' of trade. regards {image}
This is awesome. Price repeats with time. Waves happen. perhaps a better starting reference point can be discovered. Perhaps we can let price tell us where to start. Just an idea for discussion, Let's ask ourselves these questions, with all sincerity. Do we really want to start in the MIDDLE of nowhere? Perhaps the middle isn't the middle of nowhere after all. price told us where the middle of somewhere was, didn't it? price does reveal all. where is the beginning of a wave and where is the end? is 1 wave enough to predict a next move or at least make it trade able with good accuracy? I'm working on this myself. ah if only i could code. good discussion. Thanks for your contributions.
PS attached is a chart from another thread, someone posted, i can't recall who, that i saved. That can make for some better discussions.
PSS if price falls in a forest it DOES make a sound!
- #126
- Edited 11:30am Apr 11, 2015 11:09am | Edited 11:30am
{quote} Thanks Neio for this thread. This below (pics) is my contribution to statistical analysis. In one point I disagree with you: it's not 95% of times price moves away from the open. It's less. I considered O-C <= 0.5 pips and more or less only 85% of times price moves above or below the open.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
- #127
- Edited 2:48pm Apr 11, 2015 2:34pm | Edited 2:48pm
{quote} Interesting work. Funny how people interpret the same words differently. Never thought the stat of 95 percent in the quote by Crucialpoint should be taken literally as an exact number, more as an arbitrary figure to emphasise a point of view. I interpreted that it meant that price virtually "always" moves away from the open. Could have been 90 percent, 96.5 or 94.999999, does it really matter? The quote says closes above or below the open but doesn't state how far. To me this means it moves/trends away from a reference point, regardless...
what is 10%??? Nothing...
Numbers are numbers!!!! Not opinion.
--- nothing to say ---
{quote} Hi kinspk I think I have just shared a lot of my work on this forum and many times I didn't get a "thank you" as a reward. I can't share anything I do, because I'm a coder (and trader) and I work for money. I didn't tell in this thread I would have shared anything, so my answer is no. Sorry and hope you understand! Sym
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
- #131
- Edited 8:01pm Apr 11, 2015 5:34pm | Edited 8:01pm
{quote} So let say I'll cut your salary of 10%... what is 10%??? Nothing...
Your analysis based on the sample used come up with a figure of 85 percent based on a single currency pair. Taking CP's figure literally, his analysis resulted in an estimate of 95 percent. We now have two estimates based on some form of analysis, 85 percent and 95 percent. What is the actual number for all pairs across all timeframes? We will never know but at least we have two figures based on some form of analysis that gives us a guide. I still stand by my comment that the actual figure is largely irrelevant, just that it is large enough that we can draw some inference from.
BTW, I actually like your analysis but more from the perspective of trend analysis, how big is a move. So thank you!
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
- #132
- Apr 12, 2015 12:08am Apr 12, 2015 12:08am
- Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Membership Terminated | 4,544 Posts
{quote} Thanks Neio for this thread. This below (pics) is my contribution to statistical analysis. In one point I disagree with you: it's not 95% of times price moves away from the open. It's less. I considered O-C <= 0.5 pips and more or less only 85% of times price moves above or below the open.
Many thanks sym for your time and effort and thanks to Neio for such an informative thread 
- #133
- Apr 12, 2015 2:11am Apr 12, 2015 2:11am
{quote} BTW, I actually like your analysis but more from the perspective of trend analysis, how big is a move. So thank you!
first of all DON'T TAKE my screenshot as "GOLD" because I need to check it out. Values could be shifted of 1 hour. Let me work on it.
I don't know where CP statement came from. To say 95% of times price moves away from Open, implies to have gathered stats on any TF (1, 5, 15, 30, 60m and 4H, 1D 1W) and for how long? 1 year? 2 years? 5 years?
For the small part of stats I had seen, 95% is NOT ACCURATE.
But I don't pretend to be right, for sure CP knows the market better than me.
--- nothing to say ---
{quote} This is awesome. Price repeats with time. Waves happen. perhaps a better starting reference point can be discovered. Perhaps we can let price tell us where to start. Just an idea for discussion, Let's ask ourselves these questions, with all sincerity. Do we really want to start in the MIDDLE of nowhere? Perhaps the middle isn't the middle of nowhere after all. price told us where the middle of somewhere was, didn't it? price does reveal all. where is the beginning of a wave and where is the end? is 1 wave enough to predict a next move or...
Arbitrary reference points are just that, arbitrary.Who is interested in random/arbitrary reference points?
When the NY bell rings and you're an equity trader, what tends to get stuck in your mind? When the NY bell closes, what tends to get stuck in your mind?
What are we trading above?
We are trading the performance of the British Pound against the US dollar and we are doing this short-term.
#1 We see when London comes online, there is an initial push downwards which is also from the late Tokyo offer.
Interestingly, they reject downside trade. i'll say that again...they reject downside trade. If they reject downside trade, then we either move into neutral sentiment or we go bid.
Obviously, if we cannot break above the London open and crack Tokyo offer i'm neutral.
By breaking out above the London open and trading on top of the Tokyo offer it is confirmation of sellers failing to run it downside. I then expect the British Pound to outperform the US dollar while we trade on top of these static reference points.
#2 1 hour later after testing topside trade the Pound trades lower and now tests the London open, Tokyo offer and 1.46 handle.
Notice what happens? We crack the bid/buyer fails to hold trade at the handle. What happens when a buyer fails to hold bid? We go neutral to offer.
Market now uses 1.46/London open/Tokyo-London pivot to work downside from. That is a starting point for working the offers and it is lowest risk price on the short side of trade.
You think i'm the only one looking at these points of reference? There are bigger fish than myself trading around these points. I can assure it's not me flipping the market from buy side to sell side lolol
I let the market tell me which side to work and i throw all other shit aside. He doesn't care what indicators i have, and he doesn't care what chart patterns i think are important. He doesn't give two shits about a bias i have or what i want it to do.
I just listen. He wants me to flip, i'll flip.
Regards
Hi skfx, very good point. I am a bit confused about your terminology though. When you say bid/offer, I think of the dynamic path of price through time. The only what I can think of bid/offer being static is if large clumps of orders get filled at a certain price and push price. i.e. supply/demand. Can you clarify how you use the term? {quote}
Quite simply it shows bids/offers in terms of actual data and not just a graphic, like a chart.
If you are shorting the market or working offers after dropping London open and trading through big Globex bids then you are a very smart trader.
You are very smart trader getting paid.
By dropping these static reference points, the market is telling you to get short. The market is telling you that the 10's are under performing in terms of pricing or that yields are currently rising.
The premise is the same as my previous post. If a buyer cannot hold a bid and it's dropped, then it really isn't the best sign for long side trade.
And as a seller if you're working off the back of these broken buyers, you'll get paid.
Hope this helps.
Regards.
