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  • #980,061
  • Apr 11, 2015 1:11pm Apr 11, 2015 1:11pm
Quoting Bones
I appreciate it ,least I knew not to be long there ,but I was looking to trade through which never came and I doubt v much this month ,I'm not a pattern expert ,but is there literature, something that says 50% it becomes double top ? {quote}
u just got the most in depth literature available anywhere. i use 50% +. u can take it or make one fit u. like 75% or 25% or even a fib of choice. the more reliable are the deeper.. but in a strong move the shallow may be all u get. one of the reasons i didnt close my short and wait to reload at 0832 or more.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #980,062
  • Apr 11, 2015 1:15pm Apr 11, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i wasn't real popular here either
What anyone else thinks of your opinion/analysis doesn't matter.... trading well and making money all that matters
We all know ECB has announced QE, the real question, when it comes to the fundamentals.... is how much of this has already been priced in. The market is a price discounting mechanism. So just because ECB is now printing billions of Euro, doesn't necessarily mean that EU downtrend needs to continue..
  • #980,063
  • Apr 11, 2015 1:25pm Apr 11, 2015 1:25pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} What anyone else of your opinion/analysis thinks doesn't matter.... trading well and making money all that matters We all know ECB has announced QE, the real question, when it comes to the fundamentals.... is how much of this has already been priced in. The market is a price discounting mechanism. So just because ECB is now printing billions of Euro, doesn't necessarily mean that EU downtrend needs to continue..
correct on both accounts (with a few exceptions, some earn respect over the years ). i have no problem with a mans right to lose money, or make it. i dont mind going long at times either.. i had a pending long at 0709 before the last rise and missed entry.. because pa had a 0880 target. when i posted 0880 it was much lower.. i wasn't popular then either. i post where bulls/bears are likely to be and what they need. its not always right.. but i give a risk where i may want to close red.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #980,064
  • Apr 11, 2015 1:37pm Apr 11, 2015 1:37pm
bb
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #980,065
  • Apr 11, 2015 1:56pm Apr 11, 2015 1:56pm
ok right ,bearish view , to me the low wont go off bat either ,then bulls might say double bottom ,at least at its at a bottom ,lets see

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} u just got the most in depth literature available anywhere. i use 50% +. u can take it or make one fit u. like 75% or 25% or even a fib of choice. the more reliable are the deeper.. but in a strong move the shallow may be all u get. one of the reasons i didnt close my short and wait to reload at 0832 or more.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #980,066
  • Apr 11, 2015 2:17pm Apr 11, 2015 2:17pm
Quoting Bones
ok right ,bearish view , to me the low wont go off bat either ,then bulls might say double bottom ,at least at its at a bottom ,lets see {quote} {image}
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  • #980,067
  • Apr 11, 2015 2:22pm Apr 11, 2015 2:22pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i still dont know why people are trying to enlighten me.....
Nor do I!

Sure...when you already knew-it-all in your teens...what's left for your 20's, 30's and beyond?

That was a rhetorical question, BTW. I'm not fishing for sass-mouth.
  • #980,068
  • Edited 2:54pm Apr 11, 2015 2:22pm | Edited 2:54pm
this I would call mocking ,you wont find a post like this from me ,besides this has nothing to do with actually knowing bit more about how you work ,I'm not interested in your balance if its that or after the fact unexplained trades ,means nothing


Quoting Ken A
{quote} Here ....... {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #980,069
  • Apr 11, 2015 3:01pm Apr 11, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} huh correlations dont always last, and the word "temporary" is also subject to different interpretation so no. if you were a teacher i would laugh at the teacher for wasting his time. i would ask the teacher why waste time teaching if he/she is so intelligent about something... thats why Doctors with PHD in economic theory dont last very long in the "real"world. but then again "real is again another subjective topic. so no i dont need enlightenment. i only need profit. thx for the posts though... interesting read... dunno how i would use...

sorry, it was you preaching to follow the differentials

I showed both sides of the medal


but frankly: since you claim to be a fundamental trader I have to say, you do not know much of what you are talking about


so we only have to wait for the next roller-coaster trade, havn't we?
  • #980,070
  • Apr 11, 2015 3:08pm Apr 11, 2015 3:08pm
Any resemblance to a person asking nowadays beginners to simply copy trades without asking question is coincidental. Trend is your friend scammers friend.


Quoting jacko
{quote} As long as I have the major trend direction correct, I cannot lose money. If I make a mistake in the short term, because of a minor retracement, then I know that I will get ALL those losses back when the market resumes its primary, dominant direction. The ONLY way to get hurt is to be wwwwwwrong on the primary trend. As a result, I have become VERY confident in my trading. .
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #980,071
  • Apr 11, 2015 4:29pm Apr 11, 2015 4:29pm
TL's under a lot of pressure after the break and retest of most recent channel
Let's see if the dreamers can pull something off

I don't trade the Euro myself but enjoy the analysis.
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #980,072
  • Apr 11, 2015 4:35pm Apr 11, 2015 4:35pm
Quoting maximinus
Any resemblance to a person asking nowadays beginners to simply copy trades without asking question is coincidental. Trend is your friend scammers friend. Quoting jacko {quote} As long as I have the major trend direction correct, I cannot lose money. If I make a mistake in the short term, because of a minor retracement, then I know that I will get ALL those losses back when the market resumes its primary, dominant direction. The ONLY way to get hurt is to be wwwwwwrong...
I actually use the same approach with my trading, using weekly charts for directional bias.

Should I be worried of being thrown into the Scammers Hall Of Shame ..................

lol..


Come with me if you want to live....
  • #980,073
  • Apr 11, 2015 5:29pm Apr 11, 2015 5:29pm
Quoting maximinus
Any resemblance to a person asking nowadays beginners to simply copy trades without asking question is coincidental. Trend is your friend scammers friend. Quoting jacko {quote} As long as I have the major trend direction correct, I cannot lose money. If I make a mistake in the short term, because of a minor retracement, then I know that I will get ALL those losses back when the market resumes its primary, dominant direction. The ONLY way to get hurt is to be wwwwwwrong...
That's a great quote. I doubt, it will wake up just a single soul. The opposite will be true, because some are fake, and some (the silent ones mostly) want to get skinned at one point.

If you reached a single person with that, you'd have a winner.
  • #980,074
  • Edited 6:38pm Apr 11, 2015 5:55pm | Edited 6:38pm
you got it h1 chart posted with parity targets are dreamers ,even if their , right ,sometimes dreams come true
its not mocking its helpfull
Quoting Ill-b-back
TL's under a lot of pressure after the break and retest of most recent channel Let's see if the dreamers can pull something off I don't trade the Euro myself but enjoy the analysis. {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #980,075
  • Apr 11, 2015 7:20pm Apr 11, 2015 7:20pm
Taking a small piece of the pie:
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  • #980,076
  • Apr 11, 2015 8:02pm Apr 11, 2015 8:02pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} sorry, it was you preaching to follow the differentials I showed both sides of the medal but frankly: since you claim to be a fundamental trader I have to say, you do not know much of what you are talking about so we only have to wait for the next roller-coaster trade, havn't we?
like i said the differentials you showed me on both sides of the medal is way too long term for market to take that into consideration.
market is always in the "Now" mode. what does rate hike or rate drop do to the market in the immediate effect.

short term rate hike strengthens the currency on reduction of supply.
long term, rate hike however affects the demand side of the currency as it because more expensive to borrow... so overall it causes an off-setting effect

but as we see time and time again. long term doesnt come in play immediately. very often they come in cycles in years......

Anyways you can call me whatever you want, you can call me dumb or a fool of not knowing what im talking about.
All i care is the money i make in the trading.

Also about the roller-coaster trading style. drawdown on a trade is part of the game, and not having Stop loss is risky if ur trading a currency pair as manipulated as the CHF. (the peg was a stupid idea).
but a pair like EURUSD. harder to manipulate. when in draw-down the matter comes down to how well you manage a trade and turn a trade in draw-down to come off in profit.

all too often i see a lot of people trading here have a few flaws in their trading....
1. over trading ( they tend to feel like they got to be in the market 24/7, then they ended up entering multiple trades they cant manage without looking at them all the time that is incredible amount of pressure. George Soros doesnt look at the charts of GBP/Deutsche mark all that often and he still make billions out of that trade. only knowing that the pound was under pressure to depeg... george soros and the depeg trade was the ultimate success of a fundamentalist trader).

2. over leveraging (poor money management is the biggest cause of accounts going blown up..... a lot of traders here put say 500 usd and expect to double it in 1 month..... the probability of doing that is just the same as going bust on an account. just like a normal distribution you got on the plus side of being profitable on every trade and a negative side of losing on every trade. the key is how to place a trade without being killed and placing a trade with large enough space to endure volatile movements like i did on the EURUSD. EURUSD was never going to shoot to 1.2 on the fundamentals it was in.....

all n all, im still profitable and profit matters more to me.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #980,077
  • Apr 11, 2015 8:44pm Apr 11, 2015 8:44pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} like i said the differentials you showed me on both sides of the medal is way too long term for market to take that into consideration. market is always in the "Now" mode. what does rate hike or rate drop do to the market in the immediate effect. short term rate hike strengthens the currency on reduction of supply. long term, rate hike however affects the demand side of the currency as it because more expensive to borrow... so overall it causes an off-setting effect but as we see time and time again. long term doesnt...

No, FxTyrant, it is more vice versa. As Rogoff and Baxter found, it is more the here and now that is more or less unpredictable/bad correlated when it comes to rate differentials/currency correlation.

Only in the longer run one MAY see eventually usable correlation.


I urge you to read this stuff I posted, because it is important to avoid the wrong conclusions
  • #980,078
  • Apr 11, 2015 9:57pm Apr 11, 2015 9:57pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} No, FxTyrant, it is more vice versa. As Rogoff and Baxter found, it is more the here and now that is more or less unpredictable/bad correlated when it comes to rate differentials/currency correlation. Only in the longer run one MAY see eventually usable correlation. I urge you to read this stuff I posted, because it is important to avoid the wrong conclusions
Don't bother, I hinted at such.

Where is Long Beach?

Guess I speak in riddles.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #980,079
  • Apr 11, 2015 10:06pm Apr 11, 2015 10:06pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} No, FxTyrant, it is more vice versa. As Rogoff and Baxter found, it is more the here and now that is more or less unpredictable/bad correlated when it comes to rate differentials/currency correlation. Only in the longer run one MAY see eventually usable correlation. I urge you to read this stuff I posted, because it is important to avoid the wrong conclusions
im only trying to say that we live in the now. correlations they are great but they dont last. by the time a correlation is discovered its gone not too long later....
if market could be that easily interpreted, there wouldnt be a market and there wouldnt be arbitrage opportunity.

we live in the "now" and we try to make money now so as to prevent the time value of money being discounted for trading way too long period....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #980,080
  • Edited 11:33pm Apr 11, 2015 10:10pm | Edited 11:33pm
Quoting Bones
you got it h1 chart posted with parity targets are dreamers ,even if their , right ,sometimes dreams come true its not mocking its helpfull {quote}
A chart posted is not necessarily a persons full picture.
Not many post charts of higher TF here because it's full of day traders, but that doesn't mean a bigger picture is not in view.
Also, much fundamental analysis supporting a parity target has been posted in here.
How is calling someone a dreamer helpful when you don't know all their thoughts?
You called your bullish gbp piercing line analysis at 1.5550 helpful too.
To whom exactly??
My point being you can be quite presumptuous at times but not always helpful as you claim.
Come with me if you want to live....
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