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  • #979,981
  • Apr 10, 2015 2:57pm Apr 10, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting Abdul2012
EUR/USD moving down following the strong bearish trend the whole week and fell 467 pip, and i think it is heading to the 1.05 support level next week.
Why, please?
  • #979,982
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:00pm Apr 10, 2015 3:00pm
Randomness?

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Thanks again Tyrant for helping me trade longer-term. Waiting, it's not so bad after all.
  • #979,983
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:01pm Apr 10, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 0611 was reached.. on these i normally try to wait then reload after 0832 as mentioned 2 weeks back. in this case another may even be 0882.. those numbers w/o a hh. closer to high the better r/r. then target below 1.0400... in this case i have kept my trade because of larger numbers with closes to back them.. right or wrong, i am risking my floating green against norm. with the chance of getting it back in the full norm move. the reason is the larger #s may not allow 0832.. so 0640 is a small first step to 0832. no small step, no norm
You looking for 1.035?? Seems like a real possibility, but I wouldn't expect any lower...
  • #979,984
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:03pm Apr 10, 2015 4:03pm
0596 close, probably not bullish. it was below 0610
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #979,985
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:10pm Apr 10, 2015 4:10pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} You looking for 1.035?? Seems like a real possibility, but I wouldn't expect any lower...
i dont expect nothing. my stops are in place. expectations are a fools game. its more bearish to me now, then it was last time at 0461. the problem will be to get a entry 400+ pips lower now, than when first posted. the evidence is the closes on larger tf.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #979,986
  • Edited 4:34pm Apr 10, 2015 4:16pm | Edited 4:34pm
For the past two days I spent huge amount of time reading so many economic reports, articles, and news trying to find any cause behind the latest euro move lower for almost 500 pips. And I must say that I have not traded this move as I was just setting aside and not regretting it because it is against my strategy to chase price blindly without having any bias on the price based on something. Still could not figure out the trigger behind this move.
Analysts have mentioned many factors like yield difference, negative interest rate, money flowing outside euro zone, digesting fomc minutes, the double top and rejecting near 1.1, and Greece near crises. But what bothers me is that none of these factors are new in a way to justify that move especially that the market has pushed rate hike later this year and to add to this puzzle more, the usdjpy was almost stable, stock market shot higher and oil so volatile.
Was it just speculators positioning, or a panic from hedge fund, but a panic over what?
Somthing is mesterious and untill I have a real bias to this pair, I decided to stay aside.
  • #979,987
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:43pm Apr 10, 2015 4:43pm
if your trades are going up say 100 pips why dont you take part profit say half of your stake and let the other hailf go and move your sl to where you feel it should be i always bring my sl to my entry and it works for me hope this helps you
  • #979,988
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:51pm Apr 10, 2015 4:51pm
Quoting teddybomber
{quote} Good day for me too.. {image}
, Nice gains!
Trade smart, not hard
  • #979,989
  • Apr 10, 2015 5:01pm Apr 10, 2015 5:01pm
Quoting TataFara
For the past two days I spent huge amount of time reading so many economic reports, articles, and news trying to find any cause behind the latest euro move lower for almost 500 pips. And I must say that I have not traded this move as I was just setting aside and not regretting it because it is against my strategy to chase price blindly without having any bias on the price based on something. Still could not figure out the trigger behind this move. Analysts have mentioned many factors like yield difference, negative interest rate, money flowing outside...
what's so complicated? why overthink? take out the fed raise.. still the ecb prints 60 B per month. the eu trend is down since 2008. the dax is up since 2008. fundi and techs on the same page. u dont need 0 hedge to tell u its raining or why.

we just has a -600 pip bounce with a dt.. near 1.105 was a ray charles trade. what was the cost of being wrong? 40 pips.. and what was the benefit of being right? still unknown but 400+ in trend direction atm.. hindsight now, but at the time these same reasons were given. along with the +- ... now people fall over themselves trying to make a story curvefit the move.. classic

heads up,, ecb plans in printing 16 months more.. the fed may raise or not raise.. either way. euro is set up for dilution
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #979,990
  • Apr 10, 2015 5:04pm Apr 10, 2015 5:04pm
Quoting TataFara
For the past two days I spent huge amount of time reading so many economic reports, articles, and news trying to find any cause behind the latest euro move lower for almost 500 pips. And I must say that I have not traded this move as I was just setting aside and not regretting it because it is against my strategy to chase price blindly without having any bias on the price based on something. Still could not figure out the trigger behind this move. Analysts have mentioned many factors like yield difference, negative interest rate, money flowing outside...
You're over analysing, and no, money does not flow outside EZ. Easing - QE - Printing devaluates Euro, it's bargain time in EU, money is being pumped into EU stock markets and it's gonna stay that way for a while.
  • #979,991
  • Apr 10, 2015 7:21pm Apr 10, 2015 7:21pm
Quoting rehorst
Randomness? {image} {image} Thanks again Tyrant for helping me trade longer-term. Waiting, it's not so bad after all.
I see you're enjoying gains for last few months following my trades. Enjoy and always remember, even an inaccurate entry can make you money if the direction you trade is right, direction has never changed on the eurousd.
For eurusd to suddenly turn bullish it needs FED to go back into QE and ECB back into austerity, which is not gona happen in the next 3-5 years
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #979,992
  • Apr 10, 2015 8:03pm Apr 10, 2015 8:03pm
Okay, what's up with the size of the spreads at the close? I'm assuming this is pretty unusual... or at least I don't recall ever seeing them this big. Yeah, they always increase, but wow. I'm showing EUR/USD with a 60 pip spread, USD/JPY with 78, and AUD/USD with 94! And there are huge red candles for the final minute in each of those. (These are the only pairs I've checked... may be others.)

So yeah, isn't this out of the ordinary?... or have I just not been paying enough attention? Also, in a situation like this, where does price tend to open on Sunday.... I mean near the top of the spread, near the bottom, or somewhere in the middle? (Of course just ignoring any news that might happen over the weekend to cause a shift.)
  • #979,993
  • Apr 10, 2015 8:34pm Apr 10, 2015 8:34pm
Quoting Ratmach
Okay, what's up with the size of the spreads at the close? I'm assuming this is pretty unusual... or at least I don't recall ever seeing them this big. Yeah, they always increase, but wow. I'm showing EUR/USD with a 60 pip spread, USD/JPY with 78, and AUD/USD with 94! And there are huge red candles for the final minute in each of those. (These are the only pairs I've checked... may be others.) So yeah, isn't this out of the ordinary?... or have I just not been paying enough attention? Also, in a situation like this, where does price tend to open...
probably bad info from broker.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #979,994
  • Apr 10, 2015 8:56pm Apr 10, 2015 8:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} probably bad info from broker.
Yeah, I was wondering if everyone was seeing that, or if it was just me. Using MB Trading, and never had issues like that before.
  • #979,995
  • Apr 10, 2015 9:23pm Apr 10, 2015 9:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i dont expect nothing. my stops are in place. expectations are a fools game. its more bearish to me now, then it was last time at 0461. the problem will be to get a entry 400+ pips lower now, than when first posted. the evidence is the closes on larger tf.
What is your outlook next week ? I mean bear and bull levels.
Intraday only.
  • #979,996
  • Apr 10, 2015 10:08pm Apr 10, 2015 10:08pm
Quoting future2008
{quote} I think u sound sense.....it seems like ur analysis was correct.....can u please brif this analysis on the chart...plz
I use both fundamental and technical analyses. Especially line support and resistance level. Keeping it simple with many years of experience.
  • #979,997
  • Apr 10, 2015 10:42pm Apr 10, 2015 10:42pm
Quoting palinco
{quote} I use both fundamental and technical analyses. Especially line support and resistance level.
"Especially line support and resistance level:" those are NOT fundis.
  • #979,998
  • Apr 10, 2015 10:52pm Apr 10, 2015 10:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i dont expect nothing. my stops are in place. expectations are a fools game. its more bearish to me now, then it was last time at 0461. the problem will be to get a entry 400+ pips lower now, than when first posted. the evidence is the closes on larger tf.
At these levels, for me, even the daily chart is noise. I'm taking a more long term (Monthly chart) approach to what we're seeing now. Perhaps a retouch of this monthly TL is coming, which would make perfect sense, and possibly another LL toward 1.034 area..... I'm gonna be a fool and say we're very, very close to a LT bottom, if it hasn't been made already.
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  • #979,999
  • Apr 10, 2015 11:15pm Apr 10, 2015 11:15pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} At these levels, for me, even the daily chart is noise. I'm taking a more long term (Monthly chart) approach to what we're seeing now. Perhaps a retouch of this monthly TL is coming, which would make perfect sense, and possibly another LL toward 1.034 area..... I'm gonna be a fool and say we're very, very close to a LT bottom, if it hasn't been made already. {image}
Nice analysis +1
I am NOT an expert. I post to learn from others.
  • #980,000
  • Apr 10, 2015 11:16pm Apr 10, 2015 11:16pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} I see you're enjoying gains for last few months following my trades. Enjoy and always remember, even an inaccurate entry can make you money if the direction you trade is right, direction has never changed on the eurousd. For eurusd to suddenly turn bullish it needs FED to go back into QE and ECB back into austerity, which is not gona happen in the next 3-5 years
Thanks for your 3-5 year fundamental forecast and advice to randomly short. Any charts? Any idea, on average, how far the currency market tends to discount interest rate differentials? Any idea how fundamentals have affected long term charts? Nope.
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