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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #10,141
  • Apr 9, 2015 11:21pm Apr 9, 2015 11:21pm
Quoting Talzus
Hi All, Here is my crude technical analysis. Please feel free to offer advice. I have broken this down to two screen shots, I will explain the reasoning for both. D1 Chart. Wedge forming providing bullish pressure however, there are a number of Doji forming over the last few days and a hammer. This could point to bearish sentiment. This is further more followed by an engulfing candle again signaling more bearish sentiment. {image} Second chart D1 Shows EMA 50 and SMA 200 meeting up. {image} What I take from this.. At the moment price action is making...
no dude....that's right down the middle perfect.....can you execute as is....or would ya mess with it in the middle of the action....
  • #10,142
  • Edited 12:30am Apr 10, 2015 12:08am | Edited 12:30am
Quoting raiders
ive got a sell stop out on EC target of 1.333
canceling this as its drifted away from entrance.

thats said, currently looking at cadchf short to about .763 but not sure if im gonna take a shot just yet

edit: want to be below .773 before jumping in


will probably just try to play it safe and take the gj or gu short if i can get a good entrance
  • #10,143
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:01am Apr 10, 2015 1:01am
wow. just got in GU at 1.4718 looking for 1.636 anything more is just icing
  • #10,144
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:14am Apr 10, 2015 1:14am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Speaking of rundowns, I'm shorting the gbp/usd again, this time from 1.47168. Targetting 1.4630/00. Hard SL at 1.47550, soft SL is manual like always. I'm at a bit of a loss on this one; 1.4630 is essentially the full circle retracement from the entire FOMC conference spike (1.4730-ish~1.5150-ish) in March, but dropping only 80 pips or so during Tokyo/London makes me think that a hefty bounce back up might be in place once we complete the 100% retracement. I'd like to say we'll scrape the 1.4600 area, but 100% retracement of significant...

Added another automatic short on 1.4700; we have now just confirmed the start of the leg down to complete 1.4630/00.

BEAUTIFUL market reaction right here; as soon as London Session began, price tanks right from around my initial selling price of 1.47168.
  • #10,145
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:26am Apr 10, 2015 1:26am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Added another automatic short on 1.4700; we have now just confirmed the start of the leg down to complete 1.4630/00. BEAUTIFUL market reaction right here; as soon as London Session began, price tanks right from around my initial selling price of 1.47168.
love it when kicks off in my direction like that. i got a bit lucky with my entrance. almost held out fot 472 but decided not to get greedy
  • #10,146
  • Edited 2:10am Apr 10, 2015 1:59am | Edited 2:10am
Quoting raiders
{quote} love it when kicks off in my direction like that. i got a bit lucky with my entrance. almost held out fot 472 but decided not to get greedy
Yes; about that, I really don't like how the market keeps bouncing around 1.4690/85. I don't mind the bounce, since I always plan for sudden unexplained false spikes, but the chart on 1min. seems to imply the predictable case of retailers trying to buy the gbp/usd at the "low point" of yesterday, thinking it'll have to go up. It just reminds me of the classic herd mentality of newcomers to any investing/speculative market. It's somewhat disconcerting, knowing that there are people running off in a fool's errand, but that's the way the markets are. I also need these retailers to provide volatility & chart information to fill my orders as well.

In my country's native tongue, we call them "ants", on account of them being the bottom of the market food chain and being predictable in movements from people who tower above them.

It's probably not going to go back up for retracement right now. Not based on the price correlation with other USD pairs. I could be wrong, but I trade the ongoing intraday trend, and really, the notion of being "overbought" or "oversold" tends to be relative in terms of day-by-day trading cases.
  • #10,147
  • Apr 10, 2015 2:09am Apr 10, 2015 2:09am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You should, pay attention to the close, if you do it right thats the only thing you need imho.
Moin Fx-Ray.

First of all thanks for this thread. It is very informative and valuable.
Why should the close of the day are of particular importance. For example, different brokers have different close of the day. At the close of the week, it makes sense to me, but daily? Please give me a tip.
thx
  • #10,148
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:00am Apr 10, 2015 3:00am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} no dude....that's right down the middle perfect.....can you execute as is....or would ya mess with it in the middle of the action....

Great thanks!

Could I have done anymore for confirmation?

I wont play around in the middle. It doesnt fit my plan and I'm fairly new to this pair. If I see some big movement I may scalp it but other than that, I am happy with the setup. If it doesnt hit my pending orders by close of market, I will reassess on Monday.

Thanks for the reply.
  • #10,149
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:25am Apr 10, 2015 3:25am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Yes; about that, I really don't like how the market keeps bouncing around 1.4690/85. I don't mind the bounce, since I always plan for sudden unexplained false spikes, but the chart on 1min. seems to imply the predictable case of retailers trying to buy the gbp/usd at the "low point" of yesterday, thinking it'll have to go up. It just reminds me of the classic herd mentality of newcomers to any investing/speculative market. It's somewhat disconcerting, knowing that there are people running off in a fool's errand, but that's the way the markets...
right here is the area that im most worried about 4675 because of where the gj is. at this level, a crab formation has been completed on the gj and thus is due for a bounce.just hoping the usd is strong enough to keep it down just a bit longer. def not waiting around though. 1st sight of 463ish and im looking to bailout
  • #10,150
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:48am Apr 10, 2015 3:48am
went long 3/4 to the dp.....175.80
  • #10,151
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:51am Apr 10, 2015 3:51am
Look at the sterling; we're have a very good chance of hitting 175.70/50 today.

Definitely trying a long around that part.

Now, the only question is, will the gbp/jpy have enough strength to go for 175.50? Or will she taper off at 175.70?
  • #10,152
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:53am Apr 10, 2015 3:53am
and im out
  • #10,153
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:53am Apr 10, 2015 3:53am
Quoting romu
{quote} Moin Fx-Ray. First of all thanks for this thread. It is very informative and valuable. Why should the close of the day are of particular importance. For example, different brokers have different close of the day. At the close of the week, it makes sense to me, but daily? Please give me a tip. thx
NY Close, thats the only one I use.
  • #10,154
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:54am Apr 10, 2015 3:54am
We had a nice run off 179.00, waiting for a test of DP 175.80/70. Im still in
  • #10,155
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:00am Apr 10, 2015 4:00am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
went long 3/4 to the dp.....175.80
175.80? Never printed
  • #10,156
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:05am Apr 10, 2015 4:05am
Quoting FX-Ray
We had a nice run off 179.00, waiting for a test of DP 175.80/70. Im still in
still working on my patience. your'e the man ray
  • #10,157
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:09am Apr 10, 2015 4:09am
There is one scenario I have in mind:

If DP 175.80/70 is resistance and DP 175.00/4.90 gets printed and is support we could see a start of a correction or reversal. If you remember the 31th October'15 as BOJ announced 50 Trillion JPY QE, we had a 500 pip day to the upside (I was long 168 at that time). So this level has a fundamental value + its a DP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,158
  • Edited 4:34am Apr 10, 2015 4:12am | Edited 4:34am
Quoting raiders
{quote} still working on my patience. your'e the man ray
I stayed in because daily closed 40 pips below DP 177.90/80; I expected a test of DP 177.90/80. Didnt happen, weakness. After the break of 1/2 we are close to DP 175.80/70. Look at my prior post, if DP 175.00/74.90 is support I'll take profits there and reverse my position.

Add: The most important single thing: patience.
  • #10,159
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:12am Apr 10, 2015 4:12am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} 175.80? Never printed
Ry, wouldn't you say that scraping 175.50 is somewhat possible/likely? What does your DP graph say?
  • #10,160
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:16am Apr 10, 2015 4:16am
Quoting FX-Ray
There is one scenario I have in mind: If DP 175.80/70 is resistance and DP 175.00/4.90 gets printed and is support we could see a start of a correction or reversal. If you remember the 31th October'15 as BOJ announced 50 Trillion JPY QE, we had a 500 pip day to the upside (I was long 168 at that time). So this level has a fundamental value + its a DP. {image}
Wow, did you take the week off?
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