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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #10,121
  • Apr 9, 2015 4:28am Apr 9, 2015 4:28am
Quoting Talzus
Hi All, I am humbly asking for some assistance. I've been trading on and off for a few years with some limited success. Though, I have decided to give trading the time and dedication it deserves. If I was to post my screenshots of this pair with my technical analysis on would you mind providing constructive feedback on how I can improve or what I have missed? I've studied as much as possible. Now action is the best tutor I think. Let me know your thoughts. T
Would love to, share share

To counter what Mpt said, I sometimes laugh at my own analysis so don't worry if yours gets a giggle out of me too. just don't worry about such stuff
  • #10,122
  • Apr 9, 2015 4:30am Apr 9, 2015 4:30am
Hi forexmeoff, no problem. I use them in context with the market, yesterday we had a strong rejection of DP 179.00/8.90. We closed @ DP 178.60/50; So I expected a test of DP 179.00/8.90 and since I already mentioned this DP in Post #9998 & Post #9992, I set a sell limit order at 179.00 and just waited. Picture attached.

My point is you have to observe market behaviour and set those DPs in context. Last but not least, waiting still the most important.

Add: Since we are @ DP 177.90/80, thats what im watching atm, if negative next is 1/2 176.85/75 (TP)



Thanks for your reply...in that case you waited for a retest of 179.00...
  • #10,123
  • Apr 9, 2015 4:41am Apr 9, 2015 4:41am
Great! Thanks,

I will post some up when I get home.

oh, what is DP btw? I've not come across this term before?
  • #10,124
  • Apr 9, 2015 4:43am Apr 9, 2015 4:43am
Quoting Talzus
Hi All, I am humbly asking for some assistance. I've been trading on and off for a few years with some limited success. Though, I have decided to give trading the time and dedication it deserves. If I was to post my screenshots of this pair with my technical analysis on would you mind providing constructive feedback on how I can improve or what I have missed? I've studied as much as possible. Now action is the best tutor I think. Let me know your thoughts. T
You're in the right place for help. If someone here doesn't know the answer they will know where to find it.

Looking at the 15M around the DP it looks like there is still sellling pressure. such a big drop already this morning though.
  • #10,125
  • Apr 9, 2015 4:49am Apr 9, 2015 4:49am
Quoting Forexmeoff
Hi forexmeoff, no problem. I use them in context with the market, yesterday we had a strong rejection of DP 179.00/8.90. We closed @ DP 178.60/50; So I expected a test of DP 179.00/8.90 and since I already mentioned this DP in Post #9998 & Post #9992, I set a sell limit order at 179.00 and just waited. Picture attached. My point is you have to observe market behaviour and set those DPs in context....
Yes exactly, if you check the daily chart you can see there was much interest in that level.

07.04.2015: Rejection of 100pips;
08.04.2015: Second test, daily couldnt close above;
Today: Tested and rejection to yesterday's low.

If market behaviour would been different I could have gone long there also. Thats why context is important.

Long story short:
I waited until price did its oscillation (or auction, you name it) @ DP 179.00/8.90 and then traded it via sell limit.
  • #10,126
  • Apr 9, 2015 5:13am Apr 9, 2015 5:13am
Quoting anima999
{quote} I won't judge you, duck and dive all you can. Here in the UK I pay 40% income tax. This is why I spread bet as opposed to FX trade/CFDs. Spread bets are tax free.
Interesting, kinda like a Roth retirement account in the USA..........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #10,127
  • Apr 9, 2015 5:29am Apr 9, 2015 5:29am
Quoting anima999
{quote} You're in the right place for help. If someone here doesn't know the answer they will know where to find it. Looking at the 15M around the DP it looks like there is still sellling pressure. such a big drop already this morning though.
M15
I would describe this as negative.
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H4
In context though this level has been tested many times and rejected - very strong in some cases. The daily trend is negative,
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D1
Daily close from 3 days go coming up?
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  • #10,128
  • Apr 9, 2015 6:53am Apr 9, 2015 6:53am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Yes exactly, if you check the daily chart you can see there was much interest in that level. 07.04.2015: Rejection of 100pips; 08.04.2015: Second test, daily couldnt close above; Today: Tested and rejection to yesterday's low. If market behaviour would been different I could have gone long there also. Thats why context is important. Long story short: I waited until price did its oscillation (or auction, you name it) @ DP 179.00/8.90 and then traded it via sell limit.
using the daily chart on GU I just closed 2 trades for enough to buy my dog a bone
  • #10,129
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:40am Apr 9, 2015 7:40am
Quoting AllyB
{quote} using the daily chart on GU I just closed 2 trades for enough to buy my dog a bone
G/U was nice, couldnt get clearer.
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  • #10,130
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:43am Apr 9, 2015 7:43am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} G/U was nice, couldnt get clearer. {image}
daily candles plus ass chart sure made it a piece of cake

still got to study the daily more
  • #10,131
  • Apr 9, 2015 8:11am Apr 9, 2015 8:11am
anybody thinking of buying at 175/ any where near and forget about the trade until its 182??

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  • #10,132
  • Apr 9, 2015 8:14am Apr 9, 2015 8:14am
Quoting Talzus
Great! Thanks, I will post some up when I get home. oh, what is DP btw? I've not come across this term before?
post the screens....we'll teach.... and welcome to FX-Ray's thread....

buy and hold....yep......with the basket of euro and eur/aud short to go with it euro should fade to 240 or lower,huh!!
  • #10,133
  • Apr 9, 2015 8:25am Apr 9, 2015 8:25am
bump.....when the market does this on a Thursday.....buy at 4:30 am New York time the next day......
  • #10,134
  • Apr 9, 2015 9:14am Apr 9, 2015 9:14am
hopefully we get a nice pullback here so i can get back to shorting this. looking for 176.7/6
  • #10,135
  • Apr 9, 2015 10:03am Apr 9, 2015 10:03am
Long gbp/usd at 1.47310 and 1.47273. Optimal TP zone is 1.4820/00. Hard SL at 1.46900, manual soft SL.

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I'm favoring a small bounce back up before further drops (if there are any for the next few market sessions)
  • #10,136
  • Apr 9, 2015 10:15am Apr 9, 2015 10:15am
Quoting AllyB
{quote} daily candles plus ass chart sure made it a piece of cake still got to study the daily more
You should, pay attention to the close, if you do it right thats the only thing you need imho.
  • #10,137
  • Apr 9, 2015 10:37am Apr 9, 2015 10:37am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} You should, pay attention to the close, if you do it right thats the only thing you need imho.
ok ... thanks for the info

i'll get it yet


no ass level here though
  • #10,138
  • Apr 9, 2015 12:40pm Apr 9, 2015 12:40pm
Hi All,

Here is my crude technical analysis. Please feel free to offer advice.

I have broken this down to two screen shots, I will explain the reasoning for both.

D1 Chart.

Wedge forming providing bullish pressure however, there are a number of Doji forming over the last few days and a hammer. This could point to bearish sentiment. This is further more followed by an engulfing candle again signaling more bearish sentiment.
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Second chart D1 Shows EMA 50 and SMA 200 meeting up.
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What I take from this..

At the moment price action is making me sit on the fence. If the bullish pressure pushes the price to close over 179.400 I would look to long.

If the price breaks the trend support, I would look to open a small short position waiting for further confirmation from the moving averages and the S1 being passed. I would then scale in an aggressive short position to ride the free fall.

My skills are a little crude at the moment, so please be brutal but constructive.
  • #10,139
  • Apr 9, 2015 3:13pm Apr 9, 2015 3:13pm
ive got a sell stop out on EC target of 1.333
  • #10,140
  • Apr 9, 2015 8:03pm Apr 9, 2015 8:03pm
Quoting Vermillion
Long gbp/usd at 1.47310 and 1.47273. Optimal TP zone is 1.4820/00. Hard SL at 1.46900, manual soft SL. {image} I'm favoring a small bounce back up before further drops (if there are any for the next few market sessions)
Previous long on the cable did not go well, unlike my previous cable trades for the day. I closed out at 1.46937, just 3.7 pips prior to my hard SL. Nothing major though, considering that I've profited heavily from the previous rundown of the euro and pound sterling.

Speaking of rundowns, I'm shorting the gbp/usd again, this time from 1.47168. Targetting 1.4630/00. Hard SL at 1.47550, soft SL is manual like always.

I'm at a bit of a loss on this one; 1.4630 is essentially the full circle retracement from the entire FOMC conference spike (1.4730-ish~1.5150-ish) in March, but dropping only 80 pips or so during Tokyo/London makes me think that a hefty bounce back up might be in place once we complete the 100% retracement.

I'd like to say we'll scrape the 1.4600 area, but 100% retracement of significant spikes often tend to have reactions. Going up or down, It'll be interesting to see what New York session turns up.
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