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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #8,321
  • Apr 9, 2015 10:22am Apr 9, 2015 10:22am
Quoting littspaniard
{quote} hi, closed the short, -9, and the last one long +60 So last longs +120 (+20+40+60). short -9 regards {image} {image}
Nice trades
  • #8,322
  • Apr 9, 2015 10:23am Apr 9, 2015 10:23am
look like its still going up waiting for a low level around 12073
  • #8,323
  • Apr 9, 2015 10:31am Apr 9, 2015 10:31am
Shorting DAX up here... 12164, looks like it will exhaust itself, whole move should be reversed and back to 1200x
  • #8,324
  • Apr 9, 2015 10:48am Apr 9, 2015 10:48am
Quoting Ck87
Shorting DAX up here... 12164, looks like it will exhaust itself, whole move should be reversed and back to 1200x
Not sure what drove the dax up. I was expecting the same
  • #8,325
  • Apr 9, 2015 10:49am Apr 9, 2015 10:49am
Quoting Amahesh
{quote} Not sure what drove the dax up. I was expecting the same
It's just the typical manipulated, over-extended move to get people like us out with a loss before reversal..
  • #8,326
  • Apr 9, 2015 10:51am Apr 9, 2015 10:51am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} It's just the typical manipulated, over-extended move to get people like us out with a loss before reversal..
Why do you think this is reversal time?
  • #8,327
  • Edited 11:32am Apr 9, 2015 10:56am | Edited 11:32am
Quoting Amahesh
{quote} Why do you think this is reversal time?
When I say reversal, i mean of todays rally... 100+ pts or so.... volume is bearish. I think it's possible DAX is topping out around here for months to come.
  • #8,328
  • Apr 9, 2015 11:49am Apr 9, 2015 11:49am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} When I say reversal, i mean of todays rally... 100+ pts or so.... volume is bearish. I think it's possible DAX is topping out around here for months to come.
Seems like an ATH looms
  • #8,329
  • Apr 9, 2015 12:04pm Apr 9, 2015 12:04pm
Ck87,

why shall the DAX top here ? The QE XXL of the ECB is just started.
Have a look what`happend when the BoJ issued the QE program in 2012-13. The Nikkei nearly doubled.

Sixer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,330
  • Apr 9, 2015 12:16pm Apr 9, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting Sixer
Ck87, why shall the DAX top here ? The QE XXL of the ECB is just started. Have a look what`happend when the BoJ issued the QE program in 2012-13. The Nikkei nearly doubled. Sixer {image}
agree, European QE is the wind that is moving the european indexes. Strong wind by the way.
The only constant is change
  • #8,331
  • Apr 9, 2015 9:28pm Apr 9, 2015 9:28pm
Quoting littspaniard
{quote} agree, European QE is the wind that is moving the european indexes. Strong wind by the way.
Agree with the rest here.

SP500 valuation, which, depending on sources ranges from an Avg PE ratio of 19.4 to 20.4.

Here are the Dax forecasts by assuming the following Average PE ratio's:
17.5: 12,653pts
20.0: 14,469pts

We also have to remember that a weakening EUR and cheaper credit will lift the Dax Forward Earnings. My first target for this year is 12,653pts; after this, I would like to see Earnings upgrades for my next target.
  • #8,332
  • Apr 9, 2015 10:51pm Apr 9, 2015 10:51pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Agree with the rest here. SP500 valuation, which, depending on sources ranges from an Avg PE ratio of 19.4 to 20.4. Here are the Dax forecasts by assuming the following Average PE ratio's: 17.5: 12,653pts 20.0: 14,469pts We also have to remember that a weakening EUR and cheaper credit will lift the Dax Forward Earnings. My first target for this year is 12,653pts; after this, I would like to see Earnings upgrades for my next target.
Think we need to go down before we travel up again?
  • #8,333
  • Apr 9, 2015 10:59pm Apr 9, 2015 10:59pm
Quoting Amahesh
{quote} Think we need to go down before we travel up again?
You would think the way it closed that there would be some profit taking today, especially given its Friday. Then again, it is the mighty Dax.
  • #8,334
  • Apr 9, 2015 11:49pm Apr 9, 2015 11:49pm
It's of course an extremely bullish market right now and way better to play long side. But something tells me we're very close to a short term top, that can correct 5-10% easily. For now most are bearish... but I tend to think if we start falling people will buy it up as it goes down against them....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,335
  • Apr 10, 2015 12:11am Apr 10, 2015 12:11am
Quoting Ck87
It's of course an extremely bullish market right now and way better to play long side. But something tells me we're very close to a short term top, that can correct 5-10% easily. For now most are bearish... but I tend to think if we start falling people will buy it up as it goes down against them.... {image}
I saw this on IG too, but don't see why the sentiment favours short-side.
  • #8,336
  • Edited 1:08am Apr 10, 2015 12:54am | Edited 1:08am
Quoting Amahesh
{quote} I saw this on IG too, but don't see why the sentiment favours short-side.
It doesn't , it favors long side. I'm dumb for shorting yesterday.
  • #8,337
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:16am Apr 10, 2015 1:16am
I wouldn't touch longs now - this thing is going to start coming down.
  • #8,338
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:16am Apr 10, 2015 1:16am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} When I say reversal, i mean of todays rally... 100+ pts or so.... volume is bearish. I think it's possible DAX is topping out around here for months to come.
Dax has shown in the past that it can go up +150pts in a day no problems... The EUR/USD is weakening, so this may have attracted US buyers late yesterday session. I see the EUR/USD is sub 1.067, so it may drive it to ATH in the morning session, and possibly a rally when NY opens.
  • #8,339
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:17am Apr 10, 2015 1:17am
Quoting cat
I wouldn't touch longs now - this thing is going to start coming down.
At some point this month, yes I agree.... it's a question of timing for me..
  • #8,340
  • Edited 1:36am Apr 10, 2015 1:18am | Edited 1:36am
GM - sold the new ATH above yesterday's late retests of the prior ATH. It was in a 1m grave-yard doji SL -10

Edit: SL to +1

Edit: SL to +5
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