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USD/CAD

  • #7,361
  • Apr 8, 2015 9:51am Apr 8, 2015 9:51am
Quoting Ted The Bear
so I bought at 1.2430, does 1.27 seem like a long shot, if the fomc minutes are hawkish it seems like it could make it. {image}

no

look at that crazy volatility. THat was almost a 150 pip rip in under an hour

2700 is doable with the support of the 10 yr treasury auction and neutral to better FOMC min

maybe tomorrow we have a better weekly employment out look for the US and bad housing for CAD and then short stop rips up to 1.30?

(yeah I am a pig ... oink oink )
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,362
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:43am Apr 8, 2015 10:43am
Nice moves
  • #7,363
  • Apr 8, 2015 4:17pm Apr 8, 2015 4:17pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,364
  • Apr 8, 2015 6:13pm Apr 8, 2015 6:13pm
Quoting Dano12
{image}
thats my plans for future
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1usdcad.PNG Size: 70 KB
  • #7,365
  • Apr 9, 2015 9:53am Apr 9, 2015 9:53am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 04092015.jpg Size: 539 KB


Instead of just showing graphs with some highlights and lines I have decided to show some candle stick theory instead. I find candle stick theory to be very reliable for mid-term trend changes.

Notice the text book bullish breakaway over the past few days, confirmed by the dirtiest bull confirmation candle I have ever encountered. The shadow that almost wrecked the confirmation can be ignored. It was a dirty move down instigated by some M&A activity / GM bailout loan payback or at least that was what I am lead to believe by news reports. (I think it was due to the cadjpy spike up, because the japanese are dirty). Anyway it was a dirty spike down. But if you just consider the body of the bull candle and today's bullish sentiment I think we see another week of usdcad bullish prosperity until we get to the top of this annoying range.

** watch out for that daily bollinger band that's coming in. A quick spike in price action can be stalled by a bearish bollinger band. If CAD employment is weak tomorrow I see the price action ripping to 2700ish and then crashing down to mid to low 2600s just because of that bollinger band and then thats the next buying opportunity.
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,366
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:34pm Apr 9, 2015 7:34pm
this time buss is gone without my bigger order
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,367
  • Apr 10, 2015 7:48am Apr 10, 2015 7:48am
What a dirty employment number. Negative full time jobs but super positive part time jobs. Weird.
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,368
  • Apr 10, 2015 11:14am Apr 10, 2015 11:14am
With the current momentum and with Oil climbing all the way from the bottom, USD/CAD will break the strong support at 1.2380 next week and will be heading south for a minimum 200 - 300 pips!

I'm short from 1.2618 and looking for 1.23 as a first target

Best of luck!
  • #7,369
  • Apr 10, 2015 12:17pm Apr 10, 2015 12:17pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
With the current momentum and with Oil climbing all the way from the bottom, USD/CAD will break the strong support at 1.2380 next week and will be heading south for a minimum 200 - 300 pips! I'm short from 1.2618 and looking for 1.23 as a first target Best of luck!
and daily chart looks awesome and matching everything you said. That was a good Friday ready for next week
  • #7,370
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:24pm Apr 10, 2015 4:24pm
Quoting Lamira
{quote} and daily chart looks awesome and matching everything you said. That was a good Friday ready for next week
Awesome daily close looking forward for the next week to get the support broken
  • #7,371
  • Apr 10, 2015 4:25pm Apr 10, 2015 4:25pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,372
  • Apr 10, 2015 5:11pm Apr 10, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting slacki
{image}
Why would you expect PA to reverse @ 1.25? Yes it is an important level and it n fact im looking to add more short positions once this level is broken.
A retrace at that level will be good and healthy for continuation of the bear move.
  • #7,373
  • Apr 11, 2015 7:49am Apr 11, 2015 7:49am
Someone just told me target: 1.17
  • #7,374
  • Apr 11, 2015 10:35am Apr 11, 2015 10:35am
hi can any one tell me tht if they when market open usd/cad will open from up or it will be further down i opened a big lot buy on friday and my free margin is really low rite now like i m about to loose all my money but maybe usd/cad will open by +20 pips when market opens tommo??
  • #7,375
  • Apr 11, 2015 11:00am Apr 11, 2015 11:00am
Quoting afroz
hi can any one tell me ...??
absolutely on opening going down...96-100 pips down
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #7,376
  • Apr 11, 2015 3:17pm Apr 11, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting afroz
hi can any one tell me tht if they when market open usd/cad will open from up or it will be further down i opened a big lot buy on friday and my free margin is really low rite now like i m about to loose all my money but maybe usd/cad will open by +20 pips when market opens tommo??
Well no one knows if it'll head south or north, only thing i can tell you is that my indicators are pointing towards bearish week for the pair and the Fridays daily candle gives a strong indication of the same.
Hope you manage to get out of the position before getting a margin call!
  • #7,377
  • Apr 12, 2015 6:11pm Apr 12, 2015 6:11pm
Quoting Lamira
{quote} thats my plans for future {image}
it was perfect plan.... now ready for next step
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  • #7,378
  • Apr 12, 2015 9:04pm Apr 12, 2015 9:04pm
Quoting Tal1983
Someone just told me target: 1.17
I have been following this thread since last spring quietly without posting until recently.

And all I remember reading is that someone has indicators and someone is predicting and someone puts up a crazy chart with crazy wave patterns.

And then I ignored it and bought in october and november and december and january and february and march knowing that the market believes the US is close to raising rates and Canada is definitely cut rates. Crude's tremendous price drop was an added bonus.

Now the trend naysayers are back, but nothing has changed. Canada already cut rates and the US is still on the cusp of raising (because if they don't they will be admiting all their efforts of jump starting the economy has failed). Plus crude is currently having a difficult time recovering beyond $54 ( I think the popular phrase is dead cat bounce).

Taking those things in to account, what possible reason could there be for a price break down other than it would fit your mysterious price model and phantom indicators perfectly.

It is reckless to announce a target that is a dime against a trend. And it is also reckless to give advice to some one to close out their position when your justification is a ghost indicator(s). If he bought at close he would be up 20 to 30 pips right now if you didn't shake him out of his position.

And if you notice lower highs but the same lows, it is called consolidation.
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,379
  • Apr 13, 2015 1:07am Apr 13, 2015 1:07am
Strong opportunity for buy on Monthly. The ideal aggresive entry would be :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #7,380
  • Apr 13, 2015 4:07pm Apr 13, 2015 4:07pm
Quoting usdoutlaw
{quote} I have been following this thread since last spring quietly without posting until recently. And all I remember reading is that someone has indicators and someone is predicting and someone puts up a crazy chart with crazy wave patterns. And then I ignored it and bought in october and november and december and january and february and march knowing that the market believes the US is close to raising rates and Canada is definitely cut rates. Crude's tremendous price drop was an added bonus. Now the trend naysayers are back, but nothing has...
Is this the only person talking sense on this thread. What he has said above is perfectly correct, to force someone out of a long position and to be so sure of a 1.17 target is ludicrous frankly. This pair should resume an uptrend close to now, why would there be any reason for the pair to return a downtrend. Maybe oil is regaining ground. But realistically it isn't at all gaining any ground until it successfully breaks the flat it has had since late 2014 of bouncing between 45-55. Until then, to be so sure of shorting this currency pair is incorrect. Oil prices being this low for this low will have a profound affect on the Canadian economy regardless of whether oil begins to pick back up. Damage has been done to the economy in a huge magnitude and it'll be hard for them to piece it back together, as well as meeting forecasts, without forgetting the complete lack of investment and confidence since the oil crash. Please do not make stupid predictions of 1.17, especially anywhere in the near future
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