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  • #979,281
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:27am Apr 9, 2015 7:27am
Quoting Bones
bears do not control this chart yet ,I read bullish consolidation {image}
Its not clearly bullish. Upper demand failed to give bounce and we went straight down to deep low, not good sign for bulls. Currently 785 is important one it needs break to confirm bulls, and it needs it quick. Any consolidation around this level for next few hours and i am shorting here. As for structure itself daily structure points for bounce upwards toward 900 ye.

Update to post: We go down. Bottom test comming.
  • #979,282
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:28am Apr 9, 2015 7:28am
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} Last critical news for the week - Unemployment claims. Inevitable south pull may take it to 1.0710 (I have pending long @0720). I still believe this will be green week for EU. Lets see.
Indeed, closed everything before the news.
  • #979,283
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:28am Apr 9, 2015 7:28am
Quoting Bones
in actual fact there is no reversal on the monthly yet ,I've been pre reading based on the changes ,so far {image}
Because reversal appear on lower timeframe first...and switch then to higher ones.

You'll see first the changes in lowe tf before it appears on monthly...
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #979,284
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:29am Apr 9, 2015 7:29am
Quoting 21vs7
trying reenter on gu 4838 is my level to watch
this was only first test...strategy is simple as been for a while.
gbpx moved. as talked...wanting jpy and aud as stating td. .... GU was only a trigger of a level 4838 ...and yesterdays level 4980-with gj confluance of 179,2x

GJ wanna move 177,4x min. overshoot of this I will close...if momentum than we have another 80 there.
..and after covering the overshoot...ill try to play a resell later on when 177,4x is again tested.

Dont know what will happen, but i comply.

Same goes with EURCAD. same story. 3737 and 3640 this pair went far and lets see what bringz next. when I see 364x i am back in the game. but eventually they just dont come back.

with CADJPY 96,4x and 95,6x one can imagine with both sell signals (EURCAD and CADJPY) EJ needs to be clear and sell must follow. And it is. EJ. 131,7x and 130,6x

with all that said..one needs surely play relevant levels. try to see the giant picture of intraday flows and try to calculate the strenght intraday. that makes decisions relatively simple to choose, plus one stands with greater confidence. trigger and protect the trade. and repeat.
  • #979,285
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:30am Apr 9, 2015 7:30am
Quoting ClinicalEx
I get the impression from the minutes that the majority of members want hikes for June. Several for it, others (fewer) for later in the year and only a couple were very dovish. I suspect the first group may even outnumber the last two. Dudley discounted NFP yesterday prior to the minutes which may have thrown off the techs which were bullish then; and he didn't discount June hikes either while implying pending data may obviously cause a delay. Either way, those betting on June hikes hold the upper-hand at the moment on the charts and they're testing...
Holding for now but the proper new play is still with the break. Agressive longs already have a buffer from fading support.
  • #979,286
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:31am Apr 9, 2015 7:31am
its going down...
Wanting to be someone else is a waste of who you are. - KC.
  • #979,287
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:31am Apr 9, 2015 7:31am
Quoting Sammih
Pulled the Trigger folks, on UJ, small trade as I wait for EU.... {image} {image}
And hows it working out for u now?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #979,288
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:33am Apr 9, 2015 7:33am
soooo nfp lost 120k jobs but claims only rose by 1k lol
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #979,289
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:35am Apr 9, 2015 7:35am
Guys don't get too excited, never make a decision on an open candle, depending on TF you trade...
  • #979,290
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:36am Apr 9, 2015 7:36am
Quoting fxtyrant
soooo nfp lost 120k jobs but claims only rose by 1k lol
nFP survey is done near middle of each month, so theses numbers will be in April NFP.
  • #979,291
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:36am Apr 9, 2015 7:36am
Quoting fxtyrant
soooo nfp lost 120k jobs but claims only rose by 1k lol
They are not !!! correlated numbers. Starting from one is weekly and the other is monthly and ending that they measure completely different aspects of the labour market.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #979,292
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:37am Apr 9, 2015 7:37am
Jobless Claims in U.S. Over Past Month Lowest in Almost 15 Years
Very good data fo US
  • #979,293
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:40am Apr 9, 2015 7:40am
Quoting sisse
{quote} They are not !!! correlated numbers. Starting from one is weekly and the other is monthly and ending that they measure completely different aspects of the labour market. sisse
Sure.
Needless to say that claims data was good.
After that abysmal nfp due to weather
And tech wise intraday resist at 1.0770 still held, they bothered overflowing for a few more pips to make bulls happy enough to dip their toes...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #979,294
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:42am Apr 9, 2015 7:42am
Quoting Cryptic
{quote} Fxtyrant is right. A depreciation in exchange rate causes the inflation to increase, which causes both cost push inflation and demand pull inflation. for exemple, there will be a higher domestic demand, cheaper exports etc., another example is the less incentive for cost cutting specially for manufacturers, who get a competitive advantage.
You increase the price of imports...and inputs to exports... that push inflation...But it hasn't any correlation to push the demand. The inflation is a consequence from high demand , not the contrary. The deflation is a consequence of a depressed demand taht longs from 2007. With more inflation, I cannot see any correlation to push demand. If there is a depressed demand and you push the prices... it's a problem of agregated demand, not from the supply.

Cheaper exports?? It depends... the amount of import inputs you need to develop the product. Usually it's good for a non-developed products,few marketing,few package, that it's more interesting for southern countries, which have less high added value products. If a manufaturer has got a lot of import inputs, it's not so good.
And a devalue in the currency is god IF the elastity of the product from the price is over 1. The currency has devalued 40%. Have been the exporters able to increase their sales abroad Europe in one 40%? NO. So,it's not so good for the Export Balance...
  • #979,295
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:44am Apr 9, 2015 7:44am
its been a while
Time to post again.
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #979,296
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:44am Apr 9, 2015 7:44am
Quoting Sammih
{quote} I need some few pointers on fundamentals....any tips?
I follow technical (seldom follow news and fundamentals). In Fibonacci, 0710 has repeated in 1H, 4H and M. Today, I am expecting EU above 0811 (Monthly pivot). Anything 0714 below is bearish.
  • #979,297
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:45am Apr 9, 2015 7:45am
Quoting fxft
Be careful with the longs today... I closed mine, I'm short now. Be careful with unemployment claims... a good excuse to revisit 1.073XX edit: and maybe the lower of the month...1.071XX


regardless of the news... trend is trend...
Wanting to be someone else is a waste of who you are. - KC.
  • #979,298
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:46am Apr 9, 2015 7:46am
Quoting fxtyrant
its been a while Time to post again. {image}
ahhhh... we missed your iphone
Wanting to be someone else is a waste of who you are. - KC.
  • #979,299
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:46am Apr 9, 2015 7:46am
[quote=fxtyrant;8194444]{quote} actually it serves as a Dual win for Europe to devalue. devalue Euro, Win #1. Lower euro attracts international buyers to buy European Exports, +Export contributes to the a increase in balance of payment which leads to GDP growth if balance of payment is net positive.

Here come my doubts...imagine that there must be an increase of 40% of exports abroad Europe to compensate the devalue of the currency.. It can get worst.
  • #979,300
  • Apr 9, 2015 7:51am Apr 9, 2015 7:51am
heres the NY dump.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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