News trading discussion - continuation

Scalping m1

Wednesday April 8, 2015

At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.


At 2:00 pm EDT the US will release FOMC Meeting Minutes. This will bring some volatility to the US pairs and it can be a good oportunity to trade with straddle.

Good luck everybody!

When there are no strong news.

Amazing

Thank U.

Attachment

Friday
11:00
04/10/15
NO The core consumer price index
(NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Not for beginners.

Friday
11:30
04/10/15
GB Industrial Production
(GB Industrial Production), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Friday
15:30
04/10/15
CA Number of employed GOOD
(CA Employment Change), Canada, USDCAD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Tomorrow Canadian NFP

It seems that Canada can not cope with low oil prices, and to support the situation will be forced to resort to a subsequent decline in interest rates. Accompanies this scenario and the weak labor market, which for six months did not show a positive trend in the level of unemployment.
Unemployment increased from 6.4% in November 2014 to 6.8% last release, and we already have the opinion that the interest rate may be reduced in September.
Forgive Canadians, but the script "fact lower than forecast," as something more desirable for pulse trade.

In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to varying degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
CA Number of employed
Almost always left behind the indicator Non-Farm Employment Change from the US, thoroughly evaluate its statistics very hard.
The Date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her prognosis (Employment Change)
Deviation from the fact that the news of her prognosis (Unemployment Rate)
Reaction trading pairs in paragraphs
Comments
13/03/2015 4 0.1 14 No reaction
01/09/2015 0 48 -19.3 spike and sharp pullback EURCAD opposite reaction but then rolled back toward release.
12/05/2014 -10.7 0 Top 15 and 32 down EURCAD
07/11/2014 48 -0.3 43-50 EURCAD - pair falling
10/10/2014 54.1 -0.2 50 EURCAD pair falling
09.05.2014 -21 0 36 EURCAD the pair
08/08/2014 -19.8 0 48 Height couples
07/11/2014 -29.4 0.1 25 Height couples
09.05.2014 -42 0.1 45-63 Full growth of 60 n. 45 n roll back to.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Probability of a Fed rate by maturity.

On Wednesday, the Fed minutes were published, the main line of which was the "separation" of opinion regarding the timing of interest rate hikes. Yes, that's just not specified exactly how this looks like "structure of opinions." One can say for sure: the mood, as expected, are more "dovish".
Expectations look like thus, the probability of a rate hike in June, 7%, July 12% September 31% October 38% and 56% in December.
Quote: «Several participants judged that the economic data and outlook were likely to warrant beginning normalization at the June meeting» / several members of the FOMC wants to raise rates in June. But what is "more"? And how much they are willing to raise rates in June after the publication of weak data Non-Farm Payrolls? After all, the published protocol - the protocol of the meeting, which took place before the publication Farm, but really not much current hawks on memory. Lockhart, Bullard (non-voting), Esther George? Who else?
«A couple said the economy probably would not be ready for tighter policy until 2016.» There are a couple that does not want to see rate hikes until 2016 (it Kocherlakota accurately noted). Expectations continue to melt, all the turns to an even greater extent will depend on the US statics - continue to monitor.
Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at 0.5% and the APF program of 375 billion. Lbs. Markets cautiously talk about the prospects for monetary policy of the Bank as at 0% inflation in the country, Carney and the company is still talking about the greater likelihood of a rate hike than to reduce it, and see low inflation time factor. Markets cautious, because the poor statistics and prolonged absence of inflation and all can cause the Bank to cut interest rates ...
Keep abreast of regulatory interest rate expectations in Australia: (Dow Jones). The Australian Government is forced to revise forecasts laid down in the budget of the country, due to the decline in iron ore prices, which reminds of the fragility of the economy.
"Of course, we intend to further reduce the forecast for iron ore prices. And this is a serious problem for the budget," - said Finance Minister Joe Hockey Australia in an interview with Wall Street Journal.
Next week, more attention will be paid to the Australian labor market.
Greece paid the debt to the IMF on time.

USDNOK

Thoughts on "smart traders"

RBA and the FR under pressure, but that's just different directions


FR published the minutes of the meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged, Greece in time extinguishes the IMF loan, as well as important fundamental point next week curve.

"Wait a minute," some not fresh, they reflect the results of the FOMC meeting on March 18 (more than three weeks) and overlooked issues such as the publication of weak Non-Farm Payrolls. But markets are perceived quite closely.
Do not take the minutes as a guide to action, since we're talking about them as about the past: minute are a kind of resume that can be expressed in a percentage.
Markets are putting 56% chance of the Fed raising interest rates in December, 38% in October and 31% in September.
The Fed is preparing to raise interest rates, gently touching the nervous system market, we should not forget in this process that Janet Yellen does not like excessive volatility is likely, it will send us more distinct signals hints of their future actions.
Dudley (Fed, NY), for example, noted that a rate hike may be postponed due to poor statistics, but "the decision in June" is still in the game. And his own words: "The later than it should, the tightening of monetary policy, the US economy will cause less damage than premature interest rate rise"
The next FOMC meeting the US Federal Reserve on April 29.


Greece debt to the IMF on time
Greece transferred to the IMF tranche size of 448 million euros. Repayment schedule was met. Tsipras visited Moscow, but as long as the markets from this trip does not "breathed".
This week passed a message that the ECB has achieved its goals and bought government bonds of the eurozone debt of 60 billion euros.
This week there was even a rumor that the ECB is going to reduce the deposit rate, but on the background of working QE this message seems awkward.
Reserve Bank of Australia remains under pressure
RBA left interest rates unchanged, according to official forecasts, but contrary to market expectations. This behavior of the Central Bank would probably not delay the interest rate cut expectations, but only just warm up and make it worse (waiting) to the next RBA meeting, to be held May 5th.
Market participants will be expected of new tips for correcting their expectations, following the publication of an important indicator - labor market data next week, investors, at the same time continue to talk about reducing the prices of iron ore.
Buck England left interest rates unchanged
The members of the MPC to keep interest rates and incentive program unchanged. The pound is in limbo with zero inflation, which is a factor by which we will not see a quick increase of the British interest.

Next week, we expect

GB The consumer price index (Tuesday)
We'll find out whether Britain will leave the zone of deflation - a rather important question, as in the case of deflation markets begin to discuss the possibility of reducing the interest rate, and if it's an incredible accomplishment for a fact, then talk about it, and opinions will become very real to sterling
The core US retail sales (Tuesday)
Retail sales in the recent negative dynamics, and if it continues, multiplied by the weak NFP - could appear interesting volatility.
EU minimum interest rate of the Central Bank (Wednesday)
Nobody touches, but it is necessary to know.
CA overnight rate BC (Wednesday)
No one will touch, the labor market is weak, but not for "many", the prerequisites for reducing all still there. Next.
AU Number of employed (Thursday)
The pressure on the RBA, after publication, or increase, or "let go", the sooner we will see a reduction of the labor market, the sooner we will see reduction in the interest rate of the Central Bank.
GB The number of unemployed (Friday)
A very dangerous statement, we are likely to miss it, but the attention to him, there is no inflation should be paid to the dynamics of growth of wages of the British.
CA The core consumer price index (Friday)
CA The core retail sales (Friday)
The core US consumer price index (Friday)
It should be well-researched technique of trading, as the three news is published at the same time. Or even skip them away from sin?

Tuesday
10:30
14/04/15
SE Consumer Price Index
(SE CPI), Sweden, EURSEK
Average response when triggered flip-flops 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Tuesday
11:30
14/04/15
GB Consumer Price Index GOOD
(GB CPI), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Tuesday
15:30
14/04/15
The core US retail sales
(US Core Retail Sales), USA, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

USDSEK

Wednesday
14:45
04/15/15
EU minimum interest rate of the Central Bank
(EU Minimum Bid Rate), the EU, EURUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.

Wednesday
17:00
04/15/15
CA overnight rate BC
(CA Overnight Rate), Canada, USDCAD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.

you clearly do research your currencies. Good looking out.. :-)