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EURUSD

  • #978,921
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:37am Apr 8, 2015 10:37am
  • #978,922
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:38am Apr 8, 2015 10:38am
Quoting egkid
Price stretched down than i expected For first time i feel i know nothing since 8 years of trading I did my best but news poisoned my view will give it last chance ...... if pa break 1.0780 and didn't shoot up from here to 1.1130 very possible not trading again "it's not emotional but if I'm not good enough i better step out"
You sound like you had a bad day or a few days Sir but I dont think you are a bad trader at all.
Sisse once posted and I quote "a trader doesnt have to be rightt 100% of the time but it is the cost of bad trades on our account". Come one cheer up. Plenty of opportunities ahead if -that is what I tought from your post - you had a few bad days. Who doesnt?
  • #978,923
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:38am Apr 8, 2015 10:38am
why we dont have here voting board? so we can see how much of us think where it goes after FOMC?
short, long, dump-pump, pump-dump?
i bet on dump-pump=)
  • #978,924
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:39am Apr 8, 2015 10:39am
The EUR/USD bounce from the 1.0800 level during the day and back again to it, And i dont think that we gonna see 1.1000 level soon.
  • #978,925
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:40am Apr 8, 2015 10:40am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} All good, have taken two setups in the week, otherwise been flatYou well?
hi jimmy

just saw this an thought I would say hi back

I am doing good here .. trading has been a bit on the slow side and making a few and not losing much so all is ok

you doing a bit more this week?

news in a few but don't expect much out of it so it will probably make a lire out of me LOL
  • #978,926
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:40am Apr 8, 2015 10:40am
Quoting Abdul2012
The EUR/USD bounce from the 1.0800 level during the day and back again to it, And i dont think that we gonna see 1.1000 level soon.
You can never know...
  • #978,927
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:42am Apr 8, 2015 10:42am
Quoting kanchanajay
Done Placing..im short. {image}
Poor man. You are here to help amateur traders here to lose their money. We know. So, please keep your trading ideas for you less 1 hour before FOMC meeting.
  • #978,928
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:42am Apr 8, 2015 10:42am
Must go 2 the rest room
  • #978,929
  • Edited 10:56am Apr 8, 2015 10:43am | Edited 10:56am
FOMC Minutes coming. Not expecting a game changer as the actual announcement was, but rather a confirmation on the dovish (gradual hikes and not in June) tone and clarifications of the main trails and doubts that came from the last meeting.

On the fundamental side

  1. Meeting minutes are always not easy to read in the short term but they are good to leave traits for short/mid term macro direction.
  2. Like usual any detail or unforeseen issue will need to be digested first buy major analyst and players making a clear division between the actual leg and a knee jerk reaction (if any this time)

  1. Mainly the focus is in 2 main FA areas:

  1. After removing "patience" from the equation we need to know the detailed perception on macro numbers and to what extend gradual means gradual this year. Especially focus on any details on employment again. After that awful NFP numbers we need to check if the FED has a longer term concern in the deterioration in these numbers or if NFP was a one off...
  2. The second and probably more important is to know if FED is leaving the DOOR wide open for the extreme dovish talking heads for hikes in 2016 instead on Q3 2015. This is the main door for any macro leg up. Key attention to concerns about impact of weak dollar in the US economy.

On the technical side

  1. Euro looks heavy very heavy and bloated since the FOMC. It need a good shake as the wide range is pretty uncovered, tested and retested for even the sluggish traders around.
  2. Sellers are loaded from the highs for a continuation with the same trend slope for at least a test of yearly lows. However, since FOMC and for the first time in almost 2 years, short term fundamentals are not perfectly aligned with technicals and a dovish push in dollar could be enough for a push to 1.13xx handle with the impulse of shorts clearing out and caught in the wrong foot.

For the actual flows

  1. Without surprises the most probable sceneraio is not much short term but actually a more sustainable move.
  2. All micro levels raised for the news. 1.073x is the key level to track with a more hawkish minutes for a play to the lows as a break will open the yearly lows with a strong intermediate stop at 1.066x,
  3. For the dovish play on hikes September or next year with concerns about strength of dollar will open the leg in play since yesterday roll to 1.128x with intermediate stops 1.115x and the minor 1.108x. This side is a double play (intraday leg and swing) so there are a couple of targets in before...
  4. Whatever the case. 1.083x is the line in the sand for the news and the next few session until Friday. Momentum come below 1.073x and above 1.087x.


GL all

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #978,930
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:46am Apr 8, 2015 10:46am
Quoting bagXpert
{quote} Poor man. You are here to help amateur traders here to lose their money. We know. So, please keep your trading ideas for you less 1 hour before FOMC meeting.
im also amateur..thats why i might did this..
  • #978,931
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:46am Apr 8, 2015 10:46am
Quoting Nfp
Hello all sucker.. Today FOMC ..i will taking long position on GU and EU 7minutes before release. I will put stop loss about 45points. If im wrong on my side. I will call my gildfrieind and doing some roller coaster I believe both of this pair already cheap and volume was higher. Regard, NFP
  • #978,932
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:49am Apr 8, 2015 10:49am
Quoting kanchanajay
{quote} im also amateur..thats why i might did this..
You are so stupid...
  • #978,933
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:49am Apr 8, 2015 10:49am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} EIA crude oil inventories 10.95m vs 3.28m expected
So what will you be looking at (as far as currencies, stock indices etc..)when FOMC starts...?
  • #978,934
  • Edited 11:11am Apr 8, 2015 10:49am | Edited 11:11am
Quote
On the topside, there is resistance at:

  1. 1.0855 - 200 hour MA (not shown)
  2. 1.0900-075 - trend line and 100 hour MA (not shown).
  3. 1.0918 - 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart (green line in the chart above)

That would imply around a 136 pip trading range. That is doable of course. A move above the 1.0918 level would look toward:

  1. 1.0948, and then
  2. 1.1000-1.1050 area would be targeted again.

ON the downside., the:

  1. 1.0756/59: 50% of the move up from the March low and the low for September 2003
  2. 1.0714 - Lows from March31/April 1 (this would imply a 171 pip range for the day)
  3. 1.0686 - 61.8% of the move up from March low (about 200 pips).


.
Life only tastes good when you eat what you kill.
  • #978,935
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:49am Apr 8, 2015 10:49am
Minutes 5 things to watch.

http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2015/04...march-minutes/
  • #978,936
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:50am Apr 8, 2015 10:50am
Quoting kanchanajay
{quote} im also amateur..thats why i might did this..
You have Loto or Euro Millions or Poker if you want. Better for you
  • #978,937
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:50am Apr 8, 2015 10:50am
Pending BUY EU at 1.0860
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #978,938
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:51am Apr 8, 2015 10:51am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} stops is at .285 correct? No risk there. You either get a little or a lot. I saw that EU test.....only reloads I'd consider would be tired candles at 0910 or 0949 (atr here too)....my .10xx stops are not much above I'm a-ok if we never test them, actually I'd prefer it. Have a problem at the monthly low to solve....preferably this week or next.
Just noticed- 50% of this last leg is ~ 0910

that could mean something.

Not trade advice at all, but I'm watching it closely. I already said I won't be trading FOMC.
  • #978,939
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:54am Apr 8, 2015 10:54am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} So what will you be looking at (as far as currencies, stock indices etc..)when FOMC starts...?
Read the minutes and trying to align with market
  • #978,940
  • Apr 8, 2015 10:54am Apr 8, 2015 10:54am
Quoting sisse
FOMC Minutes coming. Not expecting a game changer as the actual announcement was, but rather a confirmation on the dovish (gradual hikes and not in June) tone and clarifications of the main trails and doubts that came from the last meeting. On the fundamental side Meeting minutes are always not easy to read in the short term but they are good to leave traits for short/mid term macro direction. Like usual any detail or unforeseen issue will need to be digested first buy major analyst and players making a clear division between the actual leg and...

Thanks.
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