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USD/CAD

  • #7,341
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:16am Apr 2, 2015 9:16am
I am expecting for the USD-CAD to hold for quite sometimes at its current position now. It could go down a bit for minor correction but sideways for a couple of months maybe. Then it will go up again.
Overbought + Oversold + Correction + Indicators = Are Not Equal
  • #7,342
  • Apr 3, 2015 8:01am Apr 3, 2015 8:01am
WOW ... the US government has been lying to us about job creation for the last 3 months ... that's pretty upsetting. I mean what did everyone do with the $trillion that the fed pumped into the system? I can't believe they bet it all on the stock market, or did they?

Anyway I know when my turkey is cooked ... moved up all my stops to just below the daily bollinger @ 2380.

Thank you, Janet Yellen for souring my dream of 1.5000. Your crazy trillion dollar QE program did nothing but inflate stock prices. It did not create economy saving jobs, just burger flipping jobs.
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,343
  • Apr 3, 2015 10:47am Apr 3, 2015 10:47am
USDCAD's last leg down to complete the 2 months correction (iv).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4 3Apr15.png Size: 44 KB
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  • #7,344
  • Apr 6, 2015 7:54am Apr 6, 2015 7:54am
The steeply declining trend-line and CAD strength supports the USDCAD decline to 1.2410, breaking which 1.2350 and 1.2300 mark are likely important supports for the pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily.png Size: 31 KB
  • #7,345
  • Apr 6, 2015 9:52am Apr 6, 2015 9:52am
BOC did not say nothing encouraging for CAD but CAD is still going up....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #7,346
  • Apr 6, 2015 10:06am Apr 6, 2015 10:06am
Quoting mima
BOC did not say nothing encouraging for CAD but CAD is still going up....
CAD is normal, even weak against EUR. USD is some tired from running and relaxing for the next run
  • #7,347
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:11am Apr 6, 2015 11:11am
Quoting Fx_Anil
The steeply declining trend-line and CAD strength supports the USDCAD decline to 1.2410, breaking which 1.2350 and 1.2300 mark are likely important supports for the pair. {image}
That inverted hammer / morning doji (depends when your chart considers open and close) could indicate that a bullish reversal pattern formed. A reversal also might also be a high probability because the three days before hand can be seen as three black crows. So add them together and you have a possible bullish ladder bottom forming. But that all depends if we have a relatively strong bull candle today.

If it is a reversal forming I see the usdcad being trapped in this annoying range for at least another week.
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,348
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:19pm Apr 6, 2015 11:19pm
Quoting usdoutlaw
{quote} That inverted hammer / morning doji (depends when your chart considers open and close) could indicate that a bullish reversal pattern formed. A reversal also might also be a high probability because the three days before hand can be seen as three black crows. So add them together and you have a possible bullish ladder bottom forming. But that all depends if we have a relatively strong bull candle today. If it is a reversal forming I see the usdcad being trapped in this annoying range for at least another week.
And the USDCAD closed in positive territory signaling the current range-bond trading to continue.
  • #7,349
  • Apr 7, 2015 12:09pm Apr 7, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting Fx_Anil
{quote} And the USDCAD closed in positive territory signaling the current range-bond trading to continue.
Well the price action is not as strong as I was expecting for a bullish reversal pattern. There is some sort of support developing, maybe suggesting a bullish breakaway most likely news driven tomorrow (most likely the crude inventories report).

Unfortunately, the wti oil contract price action is making me nervous. I am not sure if there are anymore sellers at $54. Plus, I am at my risk level for this long position that I have been holding and adding for months. So I am not adding anymore but I am lowering my stop (2100) below the weekly 20 EMA (2200).

Maybe all the analysts are wrong about sub $40 crude. But someone is definitely buying here.

On the bright side the cadjpy looks good to get short again. It is at horizontal resistance and it is just below the daily 100 EMA. I have added to my short as the bid went over 96.00. The price action is definitely above the daily and 4 hour bollinger bands. Plus the current price is so far above the 4H 10 Ema I am sure there will be at least a correction to the 10 EMA which is about 40 - 50 pips. However I am a little worried about the event risk of the Japanese MPC statement and BOJ press conference. I am assuming they are going to say everything is fine and they are just going to sit on it and do nothing for the time being.
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,350
  • Apr 7, 2015 11:19pm Apr 7, 2015 11:19pm
Quoting usdoutlaw
{quote} Well the price action is not as strong as I was expecting for a bullish reversal pattern. There is some sort of support developing, maybe suggesting a bullish breakaway most likely news driven tomorrow (most likely the crude inventories report). Unfortunately, the wti oil contract price action is making me nervous. I am not sure if there are anymore sellers at $54. Plus, I am at my risk level for this long position that I have been holding and adding for months. So I am not adding anymore but I am lowering my stop (2100) below the weekly...
First of All Nice Analysis....

Agreed that the USDCAD wasn't backed by price strength and is likely to observe the sideways to negative trading. However, for the CADJPY i wish 96.80 is an important level to wait for or else it should be sold below 95.50.
  • #7,351
  • Apr 8, 2015 5:44am Apr 8, 2015 5:44am
at the moment USD/CAD is 1.24244 and if stays down thn we ll see fall of 400 to 500pips
  • #7,352
  • Apr 8, 2015 6:01am Apr 8, 2015 6:01am
Quoting H4-forex
at the moment USD/CAD is 1.24244 and if stays down thn we ll see fall of 400 to 500pips
Care to elaborate? I see where you're coming from but might as well go up. Depends on fomc rather than current price movement
  • #7,353
  • Apr 8, 2015 6:11am Apr 8, 2015 6:11am
if broke suppot
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_4.gif Size: 191 KB
  • #7,354
  • Apr 8, 2015 6:20am Apr 8, 2015 6:20am
yeah there is big ''IF''
i agree with you ...

Quoting Dano12
if broke suppot {image}
  • #7,355
  • Apr 8, 2015 6:25am Apr 8, 2015 6:25am
Quoting H4-forex
yeah there is big ''IF'' i agree with you ... {quote}
yes BIG BIG "IF" BROKE SUPPORT
  • #7,356
  • Apr 8, 2015 6:35am Apr 8, 2015 6:35am
What happened to the loonie over night? I wake up and I get all these email price alerts.

Why is the cad so strong?

Is it oil? Crude price has come in and the API numbers yesterday increased. Is it a play on the official government numbers?

Is it cadjpy? It did retrace 50 pips like I thought it would but someone bought a ton of it over night for, what it seems to me, no good reason. Plus the price of cadjpy is about where the weekly 20 and 50 EMAs should have crossed to the downside.

Is it basic us dollar weakness? The eurusd did bounce 60 pips.

I don't see any real news either.

Anyone have any ideas? Because this really changes things. I thought I had the same sentiment as the cad market movers.
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,357
  • Apr 8, 2015 6:55am Apr 8, 2015 6:55am
On target for a reversal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM30 8Apr15.png Size: 41 KB
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  • #7,358
  • Apr 8, 2015 7:10am Apr 8, 2015 7:10am
Ok so I ran through the last two days of reuters news feeds and this is what I can find pertaining to the CAD

Talk of large USD/CAD stops below 1.2350

and

GlobeMail: Ottawa in no rush to convert GM proceeds into CAD


basically nothing ... I am ready to exit my usdcad longs ... but since I am a pig I will wait till after the crude number ..
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,359
  • Apr 8, 2015 9:32am Apr 8, 2015 9:32am
Holy moly ... 10.9 mil barrels over

The icing on the cake will be the 10 yr treasury auction.

And then the world will be right again.

THE END.
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,360
  • Apr 8, 2015 9:41am Apr 8, 2015 9:41am
so I bought at 1.2430, does 1.27 seem like a long shot, if the fomc minutes are hawkish it seems like it could make it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.png Size: 32 KB
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