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  • #978,621
  • Apr 8, 2015 2:37am Apr 8, 2015 2:37am
Quoting guilhemch
{quote} In case we go back to 1.105 and still want to play a bearish outcome, I'd would rather play a "false break" setup. We have been trying to break 1.105 a few times now if we go there again I don't think there will be so many people buying the resistance. Something like this? {image}
Thanks of sharing, how about daily chart, i see like this, i see the euro maybe rise around to 1.124
Attached Image
  • #978,622
  • Apr 8, 2015 2:38am Apr 8, 2015 2:38am
Quoting scouse12345
{quote} Short from 1.1020 yesterday 60 pip stop loss... and 1.0860 60 pip stoploss.... and your longs....?? Edit also long Usd/Cad 2450
You see the rising trendline, why not lower your stop loss to BE?
  • #978,623
  • Apr 8, 2015 2:44am Apr 8, 2015 2:44am
For smaller time frames: we are finishing leg 1 of the movement upward, with is confirmed by touching on the upper lip of the channel downward RSI, stochastic, RSI 50 and hourly candles with a resistance at around 880. Expecting a retrace of 30-40 pips before the real game starts in wave 3 on to 1050 and the 5th breaking that.
A good zone to buy on is 1.0805-839
  • #978,624
  • Apr 8, 2015 2:45am Apr 8, 2015 2:45am
For anyone who cares, a quick bust of a daily 21 EMA on a 1 hour - 4 hour chart always requires a retest of that level on the DAY , it broke yesterday very quickly price has returned now and is retesting it ............
  • #978,625
  • Apr 8, 2015 2:47am Apr 8, 2015 2:47am
Quoting CuddlesK
{quote} Thanks of sharing, how about daily chart, i see like this, i see the euro maybe rise around to 1.124 {image}
I honestly have absolutely no idea. But I feel that if reach 1.107... there will be many SL triggered, many people trying to catch the short term trend also. We could get a 300 spike like we had in march? Maybe. Something would definitely happen around 1.13365 but then who knows. About your chart, no opinion, it's too complicated for me, could you be right? Of course.
  • #978,626
  • Apr 8, 2015 2:47am Apr 8, 2015 2:47am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I hope I manage to stay on same leverage till then . But USD bull move was very strong and had its reasons. Am afraid I wont make it with full vagon. Got 5055 monthly ...5200...5260...5346 monthly. But pretty long way to go, as we need to get through 4972-498. Very thick top of this low zone. Wont be easy + elections still not finished - could produce heavy unstability = wild chop. Think they are gonna vote on 7th May and my plan is for PA to be @ 5055 till then. Hope it works . GL to you. edit: Omg while chatting here I got quite rich....
Agree.
Yes it is moving well , closed partially at 1.49
I might seek to reload long.
Cheers.
  • #978,627
  • Apr 8, 2015 2:53am Apr 8, 2015 2:53am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} GJ is stopped cause of UJ sell off. EU just broke daily pivot at 08586 so we might need to wait
Not sure if will reach 179, if I look at H1 it still could reach 179.
But I closed partially at 178.5 just for peace of mind

I closed EU at 1.086, will seek to reload long, tp 1.09.
Imho it still could go up further, if it is before I reload long, then I would miss it.
  • #978,628
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:01am Apr 8, 2015 3:01am
IMHO, EURUSD could re-test 1.0950 soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #978,629
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:02am Apr 8, 2015 3:02am
I wrote from there on tires EUR USD pull back because at wave 5 wspraciu 1.08 and USD JPY resistance
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H111.gif Size: 193 KB
  • #978,630
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:06am Apr 8, 2015 3:06am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_H1.gif Size: 169 KB
  • #978,631
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:13am Apr 8, 2015 3:13am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Hey man, just wanted to stop by and say good call yesterday on EU long. Spot on turn around. Just wanted to point this, while whole forum is talking about kid without trading skills and wasting thread time, good traders like yourself stay in shadows for worse of everyone here.
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #978,632
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:23am Apr 8, 2015 3:23am
fundamental: Today FOMC meeting may nothing says new.. 70%probability of FED hike by september .. According to Technical analysisi EUR/USD may reach 1.9058 before it reach 1.0788..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #978,633
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:24am Apr 8, 2015 3:24am
xxxaudxxx moving forward
  • #978,634
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:37am Apr 8, 2015 3:37am
im short from 1.0866 but im not sure, how low it will go now, aiming just for quick trade (20-25pips)
i hope we could retest 1,079x again and then go long... we will see
  • #978,635
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:53am Apr 8, 2015 3:53am
IMHO it must break the 880 at first...EURUSD is in range mode below GP 872...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #978,636
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:54am Apr 8, 2015 3:54am
  • #978,637
  • Apr 8, 2015 3:56am Apr 8, 2015 3:56am
Thanks for the cleanup !!!

As widely expected 1.087x only level to track until NY opining range.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #978,638
  • Apr 8, 2015 4:06am Apr 8, 2015 4:06am
i dont like to say this, but my eyes seems wont tell lie.
I see Eu respecting the trendline to reject the 1.08xx and ready to test 1.099 before fomc. Hawk fomc will make this pair bleed pass through 1.09 sharply and couple of demands will be over-break or whatever the term is to minimum of 1.065
on the upside, i see nothing until 1.1055 established as support if (ever breached) to 1.1113
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #978,639
  • Apr 8, 2015 4:07am Apr 8, 2015 4:07am
Today I see a bearish scenario.
I'm short from 1.08500, with SL @ 1.08900.
TP1 1.07800 and TP2 1.07640.

I see some pumping during London, for the FOMC later.
US have been playing shorts at 8pm (CET) for 2 days in a row now.
It seems tonight they will repeat the play, they will open range bound and then massively short at FOMC.
Plus, as you can see on the chart, this will be the second test at a supportive uptrend (PSAR), and I don't see it holding.

If the move around FOMC is strong enough within today or tomorrow, we should also see 1.06950.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Wanting to be someone else is a waste of who you are. - KC.
  • #978,640
  • Apr 8, 2015 4:20am Apr 8, 2015 4:20am
Quoting sisse
Thanks for the cleanup !!! As widely expected 1.087x only level to track until NY opining range. sisse
Hi Sisse,

We seem to have cleared quite a few newly established longs over the past 2 days which leads me to suspect that other players may be prepositioning long for the FOMC. I have a feeling that the FOMC will certainly not carry any hawkish rhetoric but will be more likely a repeat of the last unless the recent poor data gets a mention. As I mentioned in a previous post I am very close to being bullish on Crude which would mean further upside to the euro. Although I believe longer term we are euro short bias on macro there is in my opinion still upside risk in the Euro.

1.03X-05X is starting to look ever more attractive and there will be an ever increasing amount of stops placed just beyond there and we appear to be making a nice long base currently with 1.08x as the low. I am still hearing the herd wanting to short the euro and I am more than willing to give them the liquidity to do this.

Would love to hear your thoughts.
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