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EURUSD

  • #978,421
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:15pm Apr 7, 2015 1:15pm
Caught red handed there. Try again haha
Life only tastes good when you eat what you kill.
  • #978,422
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:16pm Apr 7, 2015 1:16pm
Quoting Ck87
Was originally looking to buy 1.0822, but doesn't look too appealing{quote}
you know what is not too appealing to you as well?
USDJPY heading to 121, but you cant do anything against the inevitable approach.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #978,423
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:17pm Apr 7, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} you know what is not too appealing to you as well? USDJPY heading to 121, but you cant do anything against the inevitable approach.
All good, I will sell any decent size up moves this month and go for minimum 500 pips.
  • #978,424
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:18pm Apr 7, 2015 1:18pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} All good, I will sell any decent size up moves this month and go for minimum 500 pips.
okay. dont cry when it goes up to 124. and beyond. i have USDJPY reaching for 140 in year 2016.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #978,425
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:19pm Apr 7, 2015 1:19pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} okay. dont cry when it goes up to 124. and beyond. i have USDJPY reaching for 140 in year 2016.
What do you think happens to USD JPY if US market correction of 10% begins later this month for a few months/till september etc?
  • #978,426
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:21pm Apr 7, 2015 1:21pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} yes. no delay to rate hike. FOMC understand recent disappointment to NFP was way overdue due to weather effects. however green shoots are seen in wage growth and despite poor job creation in march unemployment rate did not tick up suggesting next strong NFP number is likely going to push unemployment rate further lower to 5.4% or below. rate hike schedule still between June-September, no delay. however decision between June or September rate hike will be highly data dependent.
Speaking of summer months (june~august), after we hit somewhere closer to the yearly lows, I wonder when the next euro corrective spike will be.....

The problem with QE for me is that while we all know it means that currency is slated to go down in the long term, it still can provide some measure of economic reprieve....in macroeconomic terms (daily/weekly chart). And unfortunately, I've neither the patience nor equity to hold trades for weeks or even months on end. It makes things a bit annoying when you get those corrective spikes.

By the way, congrats on waiting long enough to hit the break even area on your euro shorts. You've waited a long time, and I think we've still got room for another leg or two lower. I'd like to say I've been shorting the euro as well, but my shorts are primarily geared for the cable from 1.49000 (right now it's around 1.48286).

I'm eyeing 1.07900, 1.0730 +/- 20 pips, and 1.0680/60 as the next three areas for support (for the euro)
  • #978,427
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:22pm Apr 7, 2015 1:22pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} What do you think happens to USD JPY if US market correction of 10% begins later this month for a few months/till september etc?
lmao. wont happen.
US equities is not even over priced... why would it correct lmao...
still seeing strong fund inflows to US equities and bonds....

good god. stop trying to predict correction, theres a reason why majority of the market are buy only funds when it comes to US equities, because short side gets killed for trying to pick tops.

US equities market return is not even above their respected PE ratio... not even overpriced.... but yes US is not cheap compared to the world. but not overpriced on PE ratio pricing models.
just stop. you're beginning to sound ridiculous.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #978,428
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:25pm Apr 7, 2015 1:25pm
Pending BUY EU 1.08035
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #978,429
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:25pm Apr 7, 2015 1:25pm
Impending trend line support break?

Daily:
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  • #978,430
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:26pm Apr 7, 2015 1:26pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Speaking of summer months (june~august), after we hit somewhere closer to the yearly lows, I wonder when the next euro corrective spike will be..... The problem with QE for me is that while we all know it means that currency is slated to go down in the long term, it still can provide some measure of economic reprieve....in macroeconomic terms (daily/weekly chart). And unfortunately, I've neither the patience nor equity to hold trades for weeks or even months on end. It makes things a bit annoying when you get those corrective spikes. By...
not a bad choice for levels.
heres what im baffled i think the UK have depreciated way to quickly on "political reasons" the prime minister election is sure not making the GBP an easy game...
its not like BOE is in easing mode... but the Pound is losing confidence because of this election debacle.... watch out for an election reprieve and GBP may find a hard support soon. probably wont rise against the US, but GBP maybe the next best thing to buy after the USD. consider buying GBP against Euro ie Short EURGBP, or if you think oil may fall to 30-40 a barel, long the GBPCAD looks good too. GBPJPY would also be a no brainer long.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #978,431
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:30pm Apr 7, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Ok. We'll see. Watch & learn as it goes up a bit more this month and then comes down hard in coming months.
comes down 10% while US equities have been rallying since ummmm 2008? created new highs at mid 2014....
if worse comes to worse 10% is not even considered coming down hard... sheesh..... besides the first instance of rate hike wont immediately affect the US equities...
it took greenspan to hike interest rates at 0.5% increments all the way up to 7% to collapse the Dot com bubble..... and still US equities still created record highs a year or 2 after that.
please....
stop trolling.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #978,432
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:30pm Apr 7, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} not a bad choice for levels. heres what im baffled i think the UK have depreciated way to quickly on "political reasons" the prime minister election is sure not making the GBP an easy game... its not like BOE is in easing mode... but the Pound is losing confidence because of this election debacle.... watch out for an election reprieve and GBP may find a hard support soon. probably wont rise against the US, but GBP maybe the next best thing to buy after the USD. consider buying GBP against Euro ie Short EURGBP, or if you think...
Actually, that's EXACTLY why I was shorting the old sterling. With the elections coming up in May, & the downward trend of the eur/usd dragging other pairs (i.e. the cable) with it, I thought that shorting the gbp/usd was a "safer" alternative to shorting the eur/usd (which had a tendency to whiplash dozens of pips in the past few weeks). It won't go down as much, but I expected upside for the cable to be limited to 1.49100 or so (it hit 1.491350 I think), while the euro/usd could potentially scrape 1.09000.

I wanted a tighter SL, so I opted for the gbp/usd. Maybe it's a coward's way out, but I have profits locked in and I'm not complaining.

Edit: I plan on longing the geppy again once the cable reaches a decent support....hoping to catch the cable at 1.47500, but probably closer to 1.4800/1.47800. The pip ranges also match with your eur/usd short, oddly enough.
  • #978,433
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:30pm Apr 7, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting scouse12345
{quote} Is this from the same bag of your predictions as Eur/Usd 1.1150 and climbing this week Ck.. backed up by Bones now laughable chart predictions.... now that is fucking funny... thanks for the laff....
I never understood why people laugh at each other on price predictions here. We are price takers. Not makers.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #978,434
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:31pm Apr 7, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} comes down 10% while US equities have been rallying since ummmm 2008? created new highs at mid 2014.... if worse comes to worse 10% is not even considered coming down hard... sheesh..... besides the first instance of rate hike wont immediately affect the US equities... it took greenspan to hike interest rates at 0.5% increments all the way up to 7% to collapse the Dot com bubble..... and still US equities still created record highs a year or 2 after that. please.... stop trolling.....
Would be the first 10%+ correction in years. I will buy it for sure, but am going to be selling big at some point this month & I do expect it to drag down USD JPY
  • #978,435
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:32pm Apr 7, 2015 1:32pm
I think your problem is that you started to debate which currency you like more, without any real analysis of fundamentals neither technical.
  • #978,436
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:33pm Apr 7, 2015 1:33pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Actually, that's EXACTLY why I was shorting the old sterling. With the elections coming up in May, & the downward trend of the eur/usd dragging other pairs (i.e. the cable) with it, I thought that shorting the gbp/usd was a "safer" alternative to shorting the eur/usd (which had a tendency to whiplash dozens of pips in the past few weeks). It won't go down as much, but I expected upside for the cable to be limited to 1.49100 or so (it hit 1.491350 I think), while the euro/usd could potentially scrape 1.09000. I wanted a tighter SL, so I opted...
good atleast ur secured... my worries is as soon as the election bullcrap is over with in UK, they are still likely to be the 2nd economy to hike interest rates after US.
GBPUSD wont go up much but look to GBP against crosses which are potentially easing..... not much left on the chopping block. EURGBP short is nice and GBPJPY long is nice. GBPAUD.... not sure now....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #978,437
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:35pm Apr 7, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} good atleast ur secured... my worries is as soon as the election bullcrap is over with in UK, they are still likely to be the 2nd economy to hike interest rates after US. GBPUSD wont go up much but look to GBP against crosses which are potentially easing..... not much left on the chopping block. EURGBP short is nice and GBPJPY long is nice. GBPAUD.... not sure now....
It would make for a hilarious weekly/monthly reversal if it turns out to be the Scottish Referendum from 2014 again, only this time it's reversed and will spike up like hell after bottoming out.



Go intraday trend, go!
  • #978,438
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:35pm Apr 7, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Would be the first 10%+ correction in years. I will buy it for sure, but am going to be selling big at some point this month & I do expect it to drag down USD JPY
huh.... you are saying USDJPY is correlated to US equities??
wow, and then my daily routine on the trading floor at the bank was to keep track of US treasuries + Nikkei 225 against USDJPY..... since these are teh well known correlation for USDJPY's move... not really US equities.....

but yes if US eqities drop 10%, i will buy it for sure too, but i would prefer to Avoid shorting, id much rather let the fall play out first then jump in the bull bandwagon.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #978,439
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:36pm Apr 7, 2015 1:36pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Pending BUY EU 1.08035
It wont get there now in NY but will trigger in London session, which is not a good sign.
Intraday only.
  • #978,440
  • Apr 7, 2015 1:39pm Apr 7, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Considering that I went long @ 1.075 and made over 200 pips, how much do you think I care what a bone head like you is saying? You were going on a tirade down at those levels claiming it couldn't go up...

Pmsl. now your just sounding a little bitter........... tell me how the down trend is completely over again and anyone shorting is mad, please explain it like you did the other day...and buy the thing ffs.... your so sure it's hitting 1.1150... full of shite fella....
All My Opinions, Are Just That, My Opinion!!!
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