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  • #978,021
  • Apr 6, 2015 5:24pm Apr 6, 2015 5:24pm
Wheneve I see A divergence between eurusd and usdjpy, I scratch my head.why would doller performs differently in these two pairs. Currently euro could collapse and could as well continue its correction higher, I do not have I clear picture, but what I know is that Shorting near resistence level is safer than buying from support, because even if we are wrong we could manage that short position later either by covering this short until price retrace, or by even selling it again higher. From my experience with euro in the last year, covering your shorts is much easier than getting rid of a losing long position when the price collapse and never look back again. Remember again what happend with the 1.3000,1.2000,1.500, where the price slipped and never looked back again.
And remember fundamental figures means nothing to the retail traders, because what matter is how big boys do interpret them. Something we can never know untill we see price action which is normally delayed one or two days after the release, when most retail traders trapped with their simple interpretation of the fundamentals.
I do not want yet to run into the conclusion that the bad NFP could be interpreted by the big boys as a result of weather , and therefore a better level to reload their short, but from price action and the fast recovery of usdjpy I am considering thishypothesis. Anyway tomorrow price action during London session would make things clearer.and if London session sold the euro, expect NY session to follow.
  • #978,022
  • Apr 6, 2015 5:31pm Apr 6, 2015 5:31pm
Quoting TataFara
Wheneve I see A divergence between eurusd and usdjpy, I scratch my head.why would doller performs differently in these two pairs. Currently euro could collapse and could as well continue its correction higher, I do not have I clear picture, but what I know is that Shorting near resistence level is safer than buying from support, because even if we are wrong we could manage that short position later either by covering this short until price retrace, or by even selling it again higher. From my experience with euro in the last year, covering your shorts...
I think the difference has to do with COT positioning ... . Without digging it into it too much, the ratio of short E/U traders to long ones is greater right now than the ratio of U/J long traders to short ones ... . So there is supposedly a bit of a disconnect in terms of evaluating USD strength relative to the Euro versus that same strength relative to the Yen. Also, net Yen shorts are at some kind of low, so there's also that thrown into the mix ... .

I personally try not to get too caught up in all that COT positioning information, opting instead to just look at the chart ... , although I sometimes do look at it when it appears that a squeeze of some sort may be in the making ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #978,023
  • Apr 6, 2015 5:32pm Apr 6, 2015 5:32pm
Quoting Bones
I got 2 areas in mind ,I'm interested should this close wicky in first tl ,i nicked the possible waves off Pedro I don't have 10700 in mind at all based on w1 ,month open {image}

c u tomorrow Up there
nighty night
  • #978,024
  • Apr 6, 2015 5:44pm Apr 6, 2015 5:44pm
Quoting fundovertech
{quote} No, this is the problem with this board. Just because someone is open about their trades doesn't mean he should be listened to. People should be judged by what they say, how they conduct themselves, and ultimately, their analysis. He provides no analysis, just posts his trades with nothing to back it up besides "it's the trend". That's fine, you're right, but there's nothing more to him than that. His USD/JPY long tells me he doesn't really know what he's doing. Could it reach his target? Of course! But his fundamentals are wrong. That cross...
Buddy, USDJPY long is a bet on the US treasuries,
ive been in this game long enough to know that now buddy, please shut up before you end up insulting someone more senior.
i can take the hit but you are borderline crossing it, you talk about me not providing analysis but what about yourself?
you have done nothing but to bash on me. you havent even established yourself here, you haven even proven yourself.
watch your words.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #978,025
  • Apr 6, 2015 5:45pm Apr 6, 2015 5:45pm
Quoting PaulJames
If I am may chime in... Why is everyone so upset at fxtryant. He isn't charging anyone for signals, nor is he forcing anyone to buy or sell. Not to mention he is trading in a practice account, so I don't see what the big deal is. Why can't we focus on entering into breakout trades, instead of sitting and waiting for news to push EU up or down.
Some posters do give insight about trading and market. Everyone should be learning and developing their own trading styles anyway which takes time. One of my trading plans is to trade around news, it move price. IMO, we'll be setting up for the FOMC news on Wednesday.

GL Trading!
Cheers
  • #978,026
  • Apr 6, 2015 5:52pm Apr 6, 2015 5:52pm
Quoting guzda
{quote} I marked your words, and now you mark mine from last Thursday. European equities will remain bullish for a long time. 1. Draghi is giving away enormous amounts for real economy, but he can't control it once it went out. What happens? Euro changes few hands to close debt circle and ends up into the stocks. 2. Larger demand is higher prices are. Foreign investors are using opportunity and close their positions while the stocks are high because they think that US data will be better and there is Russia threat and Greek uncertainty. 3. But EU...

easy question for you.... When Nikkei went up after Abe came in.... Nikkei creating record highs on easing.... did the Yen depreciate in value or appreciate?
so when Equities of one country goes up on fresh supply of money, does value of the currency rise with it or falls?

so yes. i agree with you European Equities are headed up. but at the expense of weakened euro.
enough debate.
euro strength is not within sight in the next 1-2 years.
Euro still in its easing cycle, and it asset inflation has yet to be seen to stop the QE in europe.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #978,027
  • Apr 6, 2015 5:56pm Apr 6, 2015 5:56pm
Quoting guzda
{quote} I marked your words, and now you mark mine from last Thursday. European equities will remain bullish for a long time. 1. Draghi is giving away enormous amounts for real economy, but he can't control it once it went out. What happens? Euro changes few hands to close debt circle and ends up into the stocks. 2. Larger demand is higher prices are. Foreign investors are using opportunity and close their positions while the stocks are high because they think that US data will be better and there is Russia threat and Greek uncertainty. 3. But EU...
I have to agree that some of those scenarios are possible. If the U.S. is any example of what dramatic easing can do, it is drive equities through the roof. Bullish equities markets generally lead to flight to the currency of the bullish market. European markets present buying opportunities that are no longer present in U.S. markets (what doink wants to buy stocks at all time highs, after all?; in fact, we are already beginning to see some chinks in the U.S. equities markets' armor, all of which may ultimately lead to flight from the Greenback toward more attractive investment opportunities elsewhere or, for example, to currencies marked as "safe haven" currencies, such as the Yen.).

That being said, various sectors of the Eurozone have huge ways to go to achieve "normalcy" as measured by employment, GDP, inflation, and other data, especially when compared with the economies of the U.K. and the U.S.

It's naturally somewhat maddening when most folks have been shorting the Euro into the ground since the middle of last year; they don't particularly want to change, especially when U.S. tightening vs. Eurozone easing on the most fundamental level says that the Greenback will strengthen and the Euro will weaken going forward. Naturally, the question is what a balanced exchange rate will be in the end ... .

My bet is that it will be somewhere between ... here (points) ... and ... well ... there (points).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #978,028
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:03pm Apr 6, 2015 6:03pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} easy question for you.... When Nikkei went up after Abe came in.... Nikkei creating record highs on easing.... did the Yen depreciate in value or appreciate? so when Equities of one country goes up on fresh supply of money, does value of the currency rise with it or falls? so yes. i agree with you European Equities are headed up. but at the expense of weakened euro. enough debate. euro strength is not within sight in the next 1-2 years. Euro still in its easing cycle, and it asset inflation has yet to be seen to stop the QE in europe.
Exac-a-tack-ly ... .

Just my personal opinion: parity will occur at some juncture, but given the pace of Fed tightening, it may ultimately be an awfully slow burn ... . Which is fine with me. Not that I mind rips in one direction or the other, but I prefer to see retracements, bounces, and dips to take advantage of ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #978,029
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:04pm Apr 6, 2015 6:04pm
what happened with the EU? i left my house when 1.102 and now its 1.1093

FOMC statement?
Perfecting your entry will increase your profits
  • #978,030
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:07pm Apr 6, 2015 6:07pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I have to agree that some of those scenarios are possible. If the U.S. is any example of what dramatic easing can do, it is drive equities through the roof. Bullish equities markets generally lead to flight to the currency of the bullish market. European markets present buying opportunities that are no longer present in U.S. markets (what doink wants to buy stocks at all time highs, after all?; in fact, we are already beginning to see some chinks in the U.S. equities markets' armor, all of which may ultimately lead to flight from the Greenback...
there is this equilibrium exchange rate theory based on GDP PPP, as as far as im concerned using he Purchasing Power Parity, US's economy is still bigger than any of the Eurozone country's PPP, take Germany For an example.
Euro came into circulation where the Deutsche Mach contributes over. 50% of the EURO's base.

Today, GDP PPP figures are as follow.

US = 53001 International Dollars
Germany = 43475 International Dollars. (using Germany as they are the heaviest weighted EZ contributor)

Sourced: IMF 2014 economic data.


EUR/USD equlibrium = 43475/53001 = 0.82
suggests EURUSD under the GDP PPP theory equilibrium is down at 0.82. but this is only a theory, as the real market can stay above or below equilibrium over extended amount of time. but it sure does look like the market wants to give that theory a test.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #978,031
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:17pm Apr 6, 2015 6:17pm
Quoting Xxavier
He might but do you agree that if he is consistently profitable it's better for newbies to subscribe to his signals than following fakers here? ??? {quote}
Not specifically talking about him, but lots of people on here flaunt their stats, but are using demo. Demo is a different ballgame than cash, you have margins, so you have to use stoploss, you can't just sit in a losing trade until you are profitable and then say "Oh another winner!" That will ruin you. They will say "Like I said [insert pair here] is back down!" When it has been up for a whole month and with real cash you would have severely dented your account or maybe gotten called before making your way back to even or positive money.
  • #978,032
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:23pm Apr 6, 2015 6:23pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Too many dumb fucks going long against the trend. My entries may not be always perfect my the dorection of my trades are never wrong. Still maintaining my 100% win rate


If a person could always get the direction correct (even with not the best entries), with correct MM, you should be able to maintain a 100% win rate forever.
That's the key to perfect win rate. It is possible..
  • #978,033
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:32pm Apr 6, 2015 6:32pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} there is this equilibrium exchange rate theory based on GDP PPP, as as far as im concerned using he Purchasing Power Parity, US's economy is still bigger than any of the Eurozone country's PPP, take Germany For an example. Euro came into circulation where the Deutsche Mach contributes over. 50% of the EURO's base. Today, GDP PPP figures are as follow. US = 53001 International Dollars Germany = 43475 International Dollars. (using Germany as they are the heaviest weighted EZ contributor) Sourced: IMF 2014 economic data. EUR/USD equlibrium...
Similarly, I can't visualize any "soaring" occurring in the Euro's future ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #978,034
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:40pm Apr 6, 2015 6:40pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Too many dumb fucks going long against the trend. My entries may not be always perfect my the dorection of my trades are never wrong. Still maintaining my 100% win rate
Kids nowadays ... . So impatient with their 5 min. charts and such ... . Couldn't wait for the correction to exhaust or the squeeze to finish off its last gasps ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #978,035
  • Apr 6, 2015 7:31pm Apr 6, 2015 7:31pm
as i see the thread is again all about the forex tyran stories...the 712 1027 is norm game if you Watch the H4...we faked so many time to break the 1030,soon the shorters may end up with cardio problems...
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DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #978,036
  • Apr 6, 2015 7:41pm Apr 6, 2015 7:41pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} there is this equilibrium exchange rate theory based on GDP PPP, as as far as im concerned using he Purchasing Power Parity, US's economy is still bigger than any of the Eurozone country's PPP, take Germany For an example. Euro came into circulation where the Deutsche Mach contributes over. 50% of the EURO's base. Today, GDP PPP figures are as follow. US = 53001 International Dollars Germany = 43475 International Dollars. (using Germany as they are the heaviest weighted EZ contributor) Sourced: IMF 2014 economic data. EUR/USD equlibrium...
High value data and analysis.
  • #978,037
  • Apr 6, 2015 8:31pm Apr 6, 2015 8:31pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Looks to me like AN has bottomed and AUD is going to get a nice bid on the news in coming hours..... AUD/CHF looks good..For now waiting for retest of lows/parity on AN though.... maybe a spike lower on news then up? Speculative ramble of cluelessness as per usual
S p o t o n
  • #978,038
  • Apr 6, 2015 8:32pm Apr 6, 2015 8:32pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Too many dumb fucks going long against the trend. My entries may not be always perfect my the dorection of my trades are never wrong. Still maintaining my 100% win rate
26 winners in a row are appreciable. How you tackle the spikes against your position? I mean where do you put your sls?

Maybe few dumb fucks are taking chance of a retrace on Weekly.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #978,039
  • Apr 6, 2015 8:50pm Apr 6, 2015 8:50pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} looks like AN got some momo in her finally.....
I will try to grab few pips here and there later ........... 00:30

It's been boring week with the holiday
  • #978,040
  • Apr 6, 2015 8:50pm Apr 6, 2015 8:50pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} there is this equilibrium exchange rate theory based on GDP PPP...

US = 53001 International Dollars
Germany = 43475 International Dollars. (using Germany as they are the heaviest weighted EZ contributor)

EUR/USD equlibrium = 43475/53001 = 0.82 suggests EURUSD under the GDP PPP theory equilibrium is down at 0.82.
Quoting GregJD
{quote} High value data and analysis.
Sure is, but...

That is a comparison of the US to Germany. Germany does NOT equal the EZ/Euro. Try the metric after totaling all EZ countries. A very different picture will be painted.
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