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  • #976,821
  • Apr 3, 2015 4:30am Apr 3, 2015 4:30am
It could take a trip to 1.12-1.13 area where a potential gartley patern is formed at daily.
Im really hoping it will so i can short with confident lol. On the other hands. If today non farm is good. It will extend a potential ABCD with its CD leg to 0.99 area
What a game by the market. Position right in where many scenario can happen just before the news
  • #976,822
  • Apr 3, 2015 4:38am Apr 3, 2015 4:38am
Quoting TuTang
It could take a trip to 1.12-1.13 area where a potential gartley patern is formed at daily. Im really hoping it will so i can short with confident lol. On the other hands. If today non farm is good. It will extend a potential ABCD with its CD leg to 0.99 area What a game by the market. Position right in where many scenario can happen just before the news
That pretty much sums it all up! Do you usually post any charts?
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #976,823
  • Apr 3, 2015 4:39am Apr 3, 2015 4:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} prediction on hh reaction... post will be about the same as the last few weeks.. people will pile in on the hh. cursing all who dont follow with all their money. underwater shorter's holding will become silent. many sad stories about losing accounts. a few days + later,, the story reverses.. and sad stories of longs... after that hh and a little time and we return near to where we are right now 0832... and then it happens again with shorters on the way to 1500... its about timing remember i said if a hh is made.. 60 billion a month backed...
sos except.. the month and 1/4 close make it harder then when this original post was made. to make a high above 1052+. harder but not impossible. the month and 1/4 close, also make a going back to 0832 more likely in the event of 105x break. and doing that puts pa below 9098 and 0942 again.. so in the event we do some news related spike to the moon today.. dont take this (my post) as bullish. its not intended that way, the closes should be respected on those larger tf.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #976,824
  • Apr 3, 2015 4:59am Apr 3, 2015 4:59am
Quoting egkid
{quote} Waiting 1.0848 to lock my profit SL@be now
you still on a demo account?
  • #976,825
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:00am Apr 3, 2015 5:00am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} That pretty much sums it all up! Do you usually post any charts?
Yeahh i post it sometimes cause im still a newb so not really confident with it though
  • #976,826
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:02am Apr 3, 2015 5:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sos except.. the month and 1/4 close make it harder then when this original post was made. to make a high above 1052+. harder but not impossible. the month and 1/4 close, also make a going back to 0832 more likely in the event of 105x break. and doing that puts pa below 9098 and 0942 again.. so in the event we do some news related spike to the moon today.. dont take this (my post) as bullish. its not intended that way, the closes should be respected on those larger tf.
I underestimated the power of bulls when we lost 1.082x this week. In my books a break above 1.098x with support of reports will unlock 1.129x with a strong intermediate stop 1.115x for a deeper retrace swing.

Checking the calendar is pretty mild until the end of the month. On the european side is nothing major but decent numbers (including key inflation) keep coming and on the dollar side there is nothing to see after NFP until the last week of April with a new key FOMC.

In simple words, September hikes are pricing in especially with bad US numbers so we may get a one leg swing up in the euro in all April and get ready for the fireworks in May when equities also get in play for the hikes.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #976,827
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:05am Apr 3, 2015 5:05am
Moral of the day:


dear retail traders being cowered is one hundred times better than being deceased.


another moral:

NFP on good Friday is the heaven for brokers.

if you want your account to be deceased and gone to the brokers heaven then trade today.
  • #976,828
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:07am Apr 3, 2015 5:07am
We can only speculate but none of us is going to predict that move. From the psychological point of view, EU is in short term uptrend, last days also showed there's significant bull power - good US data was simply ignored, EU showed some good numbers, accumulation around 720 level etc.
So...
You obviously cannot stick to one scenario, therefore If big boys want to push it higher then:
- If NFP will be better EU will drop to around 780-820 and then shoot up aggressively
- NFP worse shoot higher without even coming back down

Additionally there's always a third option - banksters are fking with the market and will send EU to hell which is less possible but still an option
  • #976,829
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:13am Apr 3, 2015 5:13am
In the last 15 years, only three times NFP were served on Good Friday. In 2012, the reading of 120k. v. 205 thousand. expected, caused a decline of 120 pips USDJPY and EURUSD increase by 60 pips. In the year 2010 (162 thousand. V. 184 thous.) And so caused a strong increase in the US dollar, because it was the best reading in three years. In 2007, the USD strengthened against all major currencies by about 60 pips. In each of these cases the best preserved USDJPY which the announcement data without major adjustments to move in the desired direction for the next approx. 90 minutes. EURUSD was different from that recorded each time the formation of V. After about 2 hours after the announcement of the data, prices remained at the same level until the end of the day and throughout the Easter Monday
  • #976,830
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:13am Apr 3, 2015 5:13am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I underestimated the power of bulls when we lost 1.082x this week. In my books a break above 1.098x with support of reports will unlock 1.129x with a strong intermediate stop 1.115x for a deeper retrace swing. Checking the calendar is pretty mild until the end of the month. On the european side is nothing major but decent numbers (including key inflation) keep coming and on the dollar side there is nothing to see after NFP until the last week of April with a new key FOMC. In simple words, September hikes are pricing in especially with bad...
i dont really think its bull power more then,,, u get to a level to test, then u bounce back to a previous level before proceeding. between the 2 ecb diluted more.

.0471 to 1060.. now with closes below 0842
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #976,831
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:15am Apr 3, 2015 5:15am
Morning guys made a decision i placed a sell limit order at 1.105 just incase of weak nfp data.
Do you think that's abit too high to catch the spike?

Arguments for Weaker Payrolls
1.February was a STRONG number
2.ADP Drops to 14-Month Low

Arguments for Stronger Payrolls
1.Challenger Job Cuts Rise 6.4% vs. 20.9% in Feb
2.Jobless Claims 4 Week Average drops to 285k
  • #976,832
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:17am Apr 3, 2015 5:17am
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  • #976,833
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:17am Apr 3, 2015 5:17am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Yeahh i post it sometimes cause im still a newb so not really confident with it though
You should, not only that gives other people chance to comment on them but also allows more people to see the patterns in progress and you seem to have them pretty clear in your mind.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #976,834
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:19am Apr 3, 2015 5:19am
there is only 1 side for eur that is up.. targetting 1075
  • #976,835
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:23am Apr 3, 2015 5:23am
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  • #976,836
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:24am Apr 3, 2015 5:24am
Before pulling the trigger remember two things:

1 Big boys do buy the roumers and sell the news.

2 Buffet has once said: when everyone is buying you should sell and when everyone is selling you should buy.

goodnight I will wake up on Tuesday. Zzzzzzzzzzz
  • #976,837
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:28am Apr 3, 2015 5:28am
Quoting TataFara
Before pulling the trigger remember two things: 1 Big boys do buy the roumers and sell the news. 2 Buffet has once said: when everyone is buying you should sell and when everyone is selling you should buy. goodnight I will wake up on Tuesday. Zzzzzzzzzzz
Yha...but what you failed to mention is that Buffet also said that he fuckt up so many times when investing and that the only thing that saved his bum was the fact that he had enough capital to sit for a long time in the red until the things turned out good again
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #976,838
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:47am Apr 3, 2015 5:47am
If i'm correct in thinking that all markets close shortly after the Nfp... the spike... whichever way is likely to be large and very quick...?
All My Opinions, Are Just That, My Opinion!!!
  • #976,839
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:49am Apr 3, 2015 5:49am
Quoting JustAndy
{quote} Yha...but what you failed to mention is that Buffet also said that he fuckt up so many times when investing and that the only thing that saved his bum was the fact that he had enough capital to sit for a long time in the red until the things turned out good again
some call it, "Not over leveraging"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #976,840
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:53am Apr 3, 2015 5:53am
NFP
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