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EURUSD

  • #976,701
  • Apr 2, 2015 4:56pm Apr 2, 2015 4:56pm
General impressions gathered from various sources:
1. NFP < 200k needed for further USD weakness.
2. NFP 200k - 250k will be neutral.
3. NFP > 250k bullish for USD.
4. Probability of NFP < 200k extremely low.
5. No fundamental reason for yesterday's rally in EURUSD that was probably due to stop hunting or short covering by institutions.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #976,702
  • Apr 2, 2015 5:01pm Apr 2, 2015 5:01pm
honestly you can not think like that


Quoting taru
General impressions gathered from various sources: 1. NFP < 200k needed for further USD weakness. 2. NFP 200k - 250k will be neutral. 3. NFP > 250k bullish for USD. 4. Probability of NFP < 200k extremely low. 5. No fundamental reason for yesterday's rally in EURUSD that was probably due to stop hunting or short covering by institutions.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #976,703
  • Apr 2, 2015 5:05pm Apr 2, 2015 5:05pm
Quoting Bones
honestly you can not think like that {quote}
Not my thoughts, just summing up after reading various sources from around the internet.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #976,704
  • Apr 2, 2015 5:05pm Apr 2, 2015 5:05pm
pssssst, look at the monthly candle symmetry

isn't it purdy?
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  • #976,705
  • Edited 5:31pm Apr 2, 2015 5:14pm | Edited 5:31pm
Quoting taru
General impressions gathered from various sources: 1. NFP < 200k needed for further USD weakness. 2. NFP 200k - 250k will be neutral. 3. NFP > 250k bullish for USD. 4. Probability of NFP < 200k extremely low. 5. No fundamental reason for yesterday's rally in EURUSD that was probably due to stop hunting or short covering by institutions.
this bounce may have already priced anything usd negative about NFP mostly already in. if NFP is a miss, and we end the day below 0942. its not by chance..
take a peek at the trade (balance ) deficit #s. despite what u hear, the u.s. is importing less. atm with a multi year trajectory its 25 billion per month less. and as more companies find N.A. energy cheaper.. that will soon be green as someone forecast. even with a cheaper euro, guess who is still importing less.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #976,706
  • Apr 2, 2015 5:21pm Apr 2, 2015 5:21pm
"If we have to choose between a default to the IMF or a default to our own people, it is a no-brainer" - Sr. Greek official (via Telegraph)

Be careful about Greece. Mind that Syriza is an ideological party and they can do unpredictable..
  • #976,707
  • Apr 2, 2015 5:22pm Apr 2, 2015 5:22pm
every move serves a purpose , nfp ,may or may not be the driver

Quoting taru
{quote} Not my thoughts, just summing up after reading various sources from around the internet.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #976,708
  • Edited 5:38pm Apr 2, 2015 5:25pm | Edited 5:38pm
it could be the eur aud wanted to do that ,personally I think tl will go on a weekly tf ,need to see eur next move


Quoting Bones
every move serves a purpose , nfp ,may or may not be the driver {quote}
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #976,709
  • Apr 2, 2015 5:29pm Apr 2, 2015 5:29pm
im struggling with bullish aud ,for next week or so


Quoting Bones
aud bearsh , {image}
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #976,710
  • Apr 2, 2015 5:30pm Apr 2, 2015 5:30pm
Notice the bearish divergence on the 4 hour chart of EU (RSI sorry meant stochastics).
  • #976,711
  • Apr 2, 2015 5:40pm Apr 2, 2015 5:40pm
Whenever USD weakens, the EUR weakens even more, hence the downward directional bias. Also 2016 is an election year in the US and Obama will want to be remembered as the President who fixed the mess leftover from Bush. Improving the job market is very important from his point of view.
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #976,712
  • Apr 2, 2015 5:43pm Apr 2, 2015 5:43pm
price is 10877 ,few pips off post 6 hours ago, close in 16 min ,eur is at extreme res ,this is the first close outside daily falling tl ,



Quoting Bones
I can clearly see h1 can only be consolidation ,,price will close out on or around this number {image}
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #976,713
  • Apr 2, 2015 5:48pm Apr 2, 2015 5:48pm
There is going to be low liquidity on metals today due to holiday. Anyone have an idea what will happen if there is alot buyers and no one to supply the market? smells like pre-rape to me.
  • #976,714
  • Apr 2, 2015 5:53pm Apr 2, 2015 5:53pm
Reloaded short at 0894, TP at 0710.

DAAA bears
  • #976,715
  • Apr 2, 2015 6:11pm Apr 2, 2015 6:11pm
Quoting taru
Whenever USD weakens, the EUR weakens even more, hence the downward directional bias. Also 2016 is an election year in the US and Obama will want to be remembered as the President who fixed the mess leftover from Bush. Improving the job market is very important from his point of view.
Im sorry but I just saw this post and had to say something. If you can elaborate more on this It would be great. First the sentence of when USD is weak that the EUR usually is weaker is just factually incorrect. If you pull up a EUR/USD and compare that to the Dollar Index they are INVERSE. So when dollar declines EUR WILL GO UP and vice versa. The reason being if you click on the ICE Dollar Index specs EUR makes up about 58% of the basket of currencies it trades. So to say when dollar goes down or weakens the eur should follow suit would NEVER happen. As for political leanings and how its correlated to the dollar I think realistically Obama has little to do with the strength of the dollar the last few years. Other than maybe

* a loose fiscal policy
*Letting the Treas and Fed have free reign and impose monetary policy w/o stepping in to thwart their efforts. If the Dollar collapses the EUR will surge not because people have to go back to EUR's but simply because the basket of currencies that makes up the dollar which companies and money managers trade or hedge its majority component is EUR. Until its replaced with some other currency inverse correlation will take hold

See historical chart. Dollar goes up and eur down vice versa
And the ICE DOLLAR SPECS.
https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/ICE_USDX_Brochure.pdf
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  • #976,716
  • Apr 2, 2015 6:12pm Apr 2, 2015 6:12pm
Quoting alayinizAMK
There is going to be low liquidity on metals today due to holiday. Anyone have an idea what will happen if there is alot buyers and no one to supply the market? smells like pre-rape to me.
nothing left to do except light the fire and sharpen the knifes. the pigs are coming and its crackling time.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #976,717
  • Apr 2, 2015 6:36pm Apr 2, 2015 6:36pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} strange, it took me no longer than 2 minutes to find 8 instances where he showed trades he took after announcing them way before. with respect to tyrant, though, time will tell... obscure, I know. you guys need to check your eye-sight. going for a couple of beers.
Im curious on who hes referring to...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #976,718
  • Apr 2, 2015 6:54pm Apr 2, 2015 6:54pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Im curious on who hes referring to...
Hi tyrant, just want to ask, how do expect the Nfp today will turn out?
  • #976,719
  • Apr 2, 2015 7:23pm Apr 2, 2015 7:23pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Im curious on who hes referring to...
Hatch was giving data to Buttons after Buttons had a (inappropriate) shot at Sisse...there u go. All moved on I hope.
  • #976,720
  • Apr 2, 2015 7:39pm Apr 2, 2015 7:39pm
I'm considering 1.0853 and/or 1.0819, suppports for a chance at 1.1047 today...
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