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  • #976,281
  • Apr 1, 2015 2:37pm Apr 1, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} age ?! discussion has only "one direction" {image}
No...I meant...

When you said...feed ma babies.

I was...well. Just being silly again.

Great shot, though! 1 D? Biebs getting roasted? Fak me...I'm about to call it all quits. This world is FIERCE unfair!

Trading...shmading!
  • #976,282
  • Apr 1, 2015 2:42pm Apr 1, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting kenfen69
{quote} No...I meant... When you said...feed ma babies. I was...well. Just being silly again. Great shot, though! 1 D? Biebs getting roasted? Fak me...I'm about to call it all quits. This world is FIERCE unfair! Trading...shmading!
indeed
1.076x/1.078x playin its micro range AGAIN !! scalp ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #976,283
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:20pm Apr 1, 2015 3:20pm
JP Morgan lowers gold, silver price forecast for 2015
April 1, 2015

The sharp decline in gold prices during February and Early March has forced JP Morgan to lower its gold price forecast for the entire year 2015. According to them, prices of the yellow metal are likely to drop further during the second and third quarters of the year. However, strong physical buying may offer some support during Q4 2015. JP Morgan has also lowered the average silver price forecast for the year.
The gold price forecast for the full year has been lowered by 3.6% to $1,188 per ounce.

The average silver price for 2015 has been lowered by 5% to $16.39 per ounce. Also, JP Morgan forecasts silver prices to average at $16.44 per ounce in 2016.
  • #976,284
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:30pm Apr 1, 2015 3:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i dont want to give false hope against trend.. 0870/80. has a st path.. 0942 is probably a major s/r now.. we did test it Friday from below (week month 1/4, closed below it).. since it it can be a major one, it may get a few test.. the one below at 0707 is just a sub mid between 0942 and 0471... its (0707)near the atm low for a reason.. fridays bounce stopped near 0942 for a reason.. near 0471 is near the low for a reason ... 0825 is a 1/4... packed neatly in sequence an = distance below 0471 is 1.000
The twin bad news made much more easier to reach out your targets.

She said that already. though.
Intraday only.
  • #976,285
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:40pm Apr 1, 2015 3:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} go for it ... drop us a line in July to see how it goes... {quote} Dollar of course. Why on earth any sane investor would pay banks a "deposit fee" and leave mountains of cash sitting in euros with negative rates when the FED is hiking. sisse
Quoting guzda
{quote} Why do you think it will to dollars? As I know dollar rates are still almost the same as euro. I believe that commodities are in focus when you get rid of unstable money, both EUR and USD, earned on shares and bonds.
As I told before. Just check oil and gold. Escape is under way from both currencies.
  • #976,286
  • Apr 1, 2015 3:58pm Apr 1, 2015 3:58pm
Rick Santelli mentioned that the EUR/JPY is a good sell right now. I don't normally trade that pair. Any opinions on a sell?
  • #976,287
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:05pm Apr 1, 2015 4:05pm
Quoting sisse
...
....For the actual intraday flows:

  1. Zigzag ...Inline or slightly better/worst und...ershoot ADP [check] for a leg 1.076x to 1.066x [in play] with NY and PMI [check]to complete the zigzag with inline or slightly worst numbers to 1.082x [TBA]until NFP and settle the day around 1.076x [check] .....

...

Surprise surprise ...and we rolled in the same boring 1.076x as expected. The bad news combo didn't help reaching any of the final levels in play. Nothing new in the euro in the close...

Quoting guzda
{quote} {quote} As I told before. Just check oil and gold. Escape is under way from both currencies.

  1. I don't know what are you reading in the latest moves in gold and oil. This leg was announced and traded since the FOMC so I don't see anything new there for now:


Quoting sisse
TO BE [patience] OR NOT TO BE, that is the question...

  1. On the technical side:

  1. ... strongly hinting to gradual small hikes to come. That will trigger a knee jerk reaction in equities, gold, and oil (they will be caught in the wrong side) and make dollar have a limited pullback and therefore euro rally

...

  1. and more in detail the actual reference trade to gold and oil here:

Quoting sisse
Quote
In the first round of key closes, oil and gold with massive swing formations in play but both with strong bullish intraday closes for the FOMC. For those asking about basic correlations, a bullish close hint in those implies a NO RATE HIKE FED play
Quote

  1. Oil breaking back the $45 handle will open $60/62.xx in a relatively quick choppy move (on no hikes) to complete the dead cat bounce from January. ...

Quote

  1. Gold less aggressive than OIL but also with a strong bullish close for the FOMC. 1140.xx holding the FOMC (no hikes in June play) opens one more final pullback leg to 1255.xx with a intermediate stop just below $1200 (+/- 1195.xx). ...

​
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #976,288
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:12pm Apr 1, 2015 4:12pm
US dollar index has decreased only by 0.02% today, but the prices of gold and silver increased greatly. The price of silver has increased by more than 2% today. Is that market over-reaction?
  • #976,289
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:12pm Apr 1, 2015 4:12pm
Quoting Forexpcb
Rick Santelli mentioned that the EUR/JPY is a good sell right now. I don't normally trade that pair. Any opinions on a sell?
I wouldn't do that.
Stop going for the easy buck
  • #976,290
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:18pm Apr 1, 2015 4:18pm
Quoting sisse
I don't know what are you reading in the latest moves in gold and oil. This leg was announced and traded since the FOMC so I don't see anything new there for now: sisse
You told that none will leave money in bank with negative rates, so everyone will move to USD and wait for rates hike. I told you that rates are the same and no one will keep earnings from shares in banks, but commodities to at least keep the value.
Even Gold Standard is over for quite long time now it is still the best inflation and printing protection.
So Draghi is printing money - Euro value is dropping, shares still keep some gains
US fundamentals are not good as optimism surveys were showing
Inemminent reaction is selling EU shares, sell euro buy commodities - gold is the best
Get rid of USD - buy commodities - gold is the best again.
  • #976,291
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:22pm Apr 1, 2015 4:22pm
Quoting johnsmart
US dollar index has decreased only by 0.02% today, but the prices of gold and silver increased greatly. The price of silver has increased by more than 2% today. Is that market over-reaction?
Foreign investors are selling EU shares and escaping from euro as Draghi is printing so much money and devaluating single currency, but do not buy other currencies. They want to save their investments in commodities until some better opportunities.
  • #976,292
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:30pm Apr 1, 2015 4:30pm
Quoting guzda
{quote} Foreign investors are selling EU shares and escaping from euro as Draghi is printing so much money and devaluating single currency, but do not buy other currencies. They want to save their investments in commodities until some better opportunities.
??? so why were they buying S&P500 at 700 bringing it to 2100 while Bernanke flew his helicopters?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #976,293
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:32pm Apr 1, 2015 4:32pm
ELA for Greek Banks increased by EUR 700mln by ECB, according to banking sources

Short term financing for Greek banks seems to be very needed.
  • #976,294
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:43pm Apr 1, 2015 4:43pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} ??? so why were they buying S&P500 at 700 bringing it to 2100 while Bernanke flew his helicopters?
Then was the PIIGS issue, and if you remember EURUSD was 1.6xxx when huge selloff started. Then for euro you could buy much more USD CHF GBP, so stocks were much cheaper, and everyone were expecting a recovery to earn money. Now some consider that no recovery or expansion that will cover costs, inflation, and bring profit is on the sight so they escape to commodities. Then commodities were also in the focus but there was so much free money that that was not so obvious as today.
One more thing.
About 400 million people live and use euro every day + international trades(more than half world's car production is Europe's) means that someone needs euros, even problematical Greeks, while on the other hand almost all speculators left euro, and will avoid it. This is the reason I do not see anymore drastically devaluation of euro even mean Germans are praying for it to come EURUSD 0.5 so they can produce and sell more.
  • #976,295
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:47pm Apr 1, 2015 4:47pm
Quoting guzda
{quote} You told that none will leave money in bank with negative rates, so everyone will move to USD and wait for rates hike. I told you that rates are the same and no one will keep earnings from shares in banks, but commodities to at least keep the value. Even Gold Standard is over for quite long time now it is still the best inflation and printing protection. So Draghi is printing money - Euro value is dropping, shares still keep some gains US fundamentals are not good as optimism surveys were showing Inemminent reaction is selling EU shares,...
Sorry mate i think you are a bit confused to say the least.

  1. Nobody said that "will move to USD and wait for rates hike". The OP made a hypothetical comment on what would happened in the future if "DAX and European stocks come down 5-10% or so in the next 6 months after April" ....Nobody is going to sit and wait for hikes. The scenario is if you have a massive selloff in 6 months and rates differentials are wider what would happen? ...the answer is clear...
  2. Selling European equities????? don't know what are you tracking. There is no single european market not making all time highs and flying to the moon. The DAX current leg alone its the BIGEST one way RALLY in the history of stock markets !!!
  3. With QE and negative rates ..who on earth is going to sell equities. Buy equities with Free money + negative rates is the most basic of all plays. ITs trading and investment 101 1!!!
  4. You are seriously confusing the last 2 days moves with the actual fundamentals in play.

In simple words, i think you are a bit off timing between fundamentals, underlying and actual charts...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #976,296
  • Apr 1, 2015 4:58pm Apr 1, 2015 4:58pm
Quoting guzda
{quote} Then was the PIIGS issue, and if you remember EURUSD was 1.6xxx when huge selloff started. Then for euro you could buy much more USD CHF GBP, so stocks were much cheaper, and everyone were expecting a recovery to earn money. Now some consider that no recovery or expansion that will cover costs, inflation, and bring profit is on the sight so they escape to commodities. Then commodities were also in the focus but there was so much free money that that was not so obvious as today. One more thing. About 400 million people live and use euro every...
sorry don't see your reasoning at all,
ah see sisse helped already, study it....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #976,297
  • Apr 1, 2015 5:03pm Apr 1, 2015 5:03pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sorry mate i think you are a bit confused to say the least. Nobody said that "will move to USD and wait for rates hike". The OP made a hypothetical comment on what would happened in the future if "DAX and European stocks come down 5-10% or so in the next 6 months after April" ....Nobody is going to sit and wait for hikes. The scenario is if you have a massive selloff in 6 months and rates differentials are wider what would happen? ...the answer is clear... Selling European equities????? don't know what are you tracking. There is no single...
About 400 million people live and use euro every day + international trades(more than half world's car production is Europe's) means that someone needs euros, even problematical Greeks, while on the other hand almost all speculators left euro, and will avoid it. This is the reason I do not see anymore drastically devaluation of euro even mean Germans are praying for it to come EURUSD 0.5 so they can produce and sell more.
1. You can call it different. Closing positions and taking gains, as future gains won't be enough to cover rate differences and undergoing inflation except eurozone.
2. I am not confusing last two days or off timing, as everyone can have it's own reasons to look on the same thing in different ways. EU stocks probably came to the top( I think that and many other my colleagues) so logical is to easy close profits and direct investments in some other types that are considered undervalued.

In fact I am technical trader, that sometimes is scalping when there is no clear direction clue. But fundamentals are the one that are the base of any technical pattern.

Everything I said is what I think that is happening now, but that will be visible in some time after Easter.
I said earlier today that Friday will be hell of the day if continue like this. We will come to neutral position waiting for fundamentals. If fundamentals will continue to be bad we will see high volatility without price real change, and after easter could see trend reversal. So again this means that people will start to come back to euro and euro shares rally will continue as traders will reopen positions.

Those are the only two scenarios that are about to happen(in my opinion) and in both commodities will gain.
  • #976,298
  • Apr 1, 2015 5:22pm Apr 1, 2015 5:22pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sorry mate i think you are a bit confused to say the least. Nobody said that "will move to USD and wait for rates hike". The OP made a hypothetical comment on what would happened in the future if "DAX and European stocks come down 5-10% or so in the next 6 months after April" ....Nobody is going to sit and wait for hikes. The scenario is if you have a massive selloff in 6 months and rates differentials are wider what would happen? ...the answer is clear... Selling European equities????? don't know what are you tracking. There is no single...
As you can see here long time investors left USD and focused on gold after fundamentals released, and will stay there until next fundamentals release(light green).
And you can see three bigger drops where speculators where closing their positions and gathering gains, and final easy drop when other speculators realized that that's all folks so they are leaving as there is no more pricing up.
So please show me what am I confusing, because I would really like to know if I am wrong.
Regards
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  • #976,299
  • Apr 1, 2015 5:24pm Apr 1, 2015 5:24pm
Quoting guzda
{quote} About 400 million people live and use euro every day + international trades(more than half world's car production is Europe's) means that someone needs euros, even problematical Greeks, while on the other hand almost all speculators left euro, and will avoid it. This is the reason I do not see anymore drastically devaluation of euro even mean Germans are praying for it to come EURUSD 0.5 so they can produce and sell more. 1. You can call it different. Closing positions and taking gains,...
sorry.. include the french and italian and its about 20%, germans roughly 15%.. japan and the u.s is above germany, if incorrect, i apologize

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...cle_production
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #976,300
  • Apr 1, 2015 5:36pm Apr 1, 2015 5:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sorry.. include the french and italian and its about 20% {image}
Sorry...your data is outdated.
So, now go and find by producers not where finished, so you will se some other numbers.
Example PSA group (Citroen, Peugeot, DS) more than a half of it's sold cars produce in China, but the parts are coming from all over the world. The most important are coming from France, while interior is produced in Croatia, and only some metal exterior parts and assembly is done in China, and again all profit goes back to EU, so euro demand still exists.
I will not mention VW(last year only in Brazil almost 1 million cars)(audi, skoda, seat, bentley-GBP, bugatti), Mercedes, BMW(mini-GBP, Rolls Royce-GBP), Opel(Vauxhall-GBP), Porsche, Fiat(Alfa Romeo, Ferrari, Masseratti,Lancia; Chrysler and Dodge now also use many EU parts under Fiat), Reanult(Dacia), Volvo(Chinese owner but complete Sweden developed and produced)...
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