News trading discussion - continuation

Wednesday
11:30
01.04.15
GB Activity Index GOOD industry
(GB Manufacturing PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Wednesday
15:15
01.04.15
US ADP number of employed
(US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Wednesday
17:00
01.04.15
US ISM index of business optimism
(US ISM Manufacturing PMI), USA, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Lacker: Fed interest rate can be increased in June.


Consumer sentiment in the United States at the highs, which once again proves the publication of the index of consumer sentiment from the US Conference Board in March of 101.3 against 98.8 in February. The reason for the positive: falling gasoline prices and an increase in the number of jobs.
At the same time, the Chicago PMI 46.3 vs. 52.5, which is the lower "50" indicates a decrease in the activity of an important industrial center of the United States.

Fed (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) Lacker (Lacker): There is good reason to raise interest rates in June. Lacker also believes that the achievement of the dollar "peak" and oil prices "bottom" will lead to the inflation target of 2%. Recall Janet Yellen, previously denied the probability of a Fed rate cut this year, the markets are torn between the FOMC meeting in June and September (the estimated date of the change of monetary policy).
The Canadian dollar was well received negative data on GDP growth: -0.1% vs. -0.2%. What could defend some positions after their losses from declining since the beginning of the week the price of oil. GDP decline was due to lower activity in the service sector, which accounts for almost 70% of GDP. Wholesale, retail and transport sectors showed a decline, as well as the hotel business sector.

Against the background of Stephen runners, the "hope of compensation growth from indirect oil industries" publication still has a negative color. Recall that the Bank of Canada expects "abominable" the consequences of the reduction in oil prices for the first quarter of the country's GDP.

ECB Makuch: Positive signs show that quantitative easing is working. Against the background of this application looks good publication of the consumer price index of the Eurozone: CPI Flash Estimate -0.1% vs. -0.3% prior
Tsipras (Greece) will visit Russia on April 8. Consensus on reform with the ECB has not yet been reached.
Fitch affirms ratings of China "A +" with a stable outlook.

Clarification to the post on 70% probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia - analysts suggest three rate cuts this year. Official forecasts while "on the spot rate" of 2.25%, but this figure can be changed per day and closer to release.

At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories. Check this article and set it up on Crude Oil with a trigger of 7 Mb and use Gasoline as a confirmation

Analysts Forecast 4.6 Million-Barrel Gain in Crude-Oil Stocks
Published: Mar 31, 2015

By Nicole Friedman


NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to rise in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 13 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have risen by 4.6 million barrels, on average, in the week ended March 27.

All 13 analysts expect stockpiles to increase. Forecasts range from a rise of two million barrels to a gain of 6.8 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to fall by 900,000 barrels, according to analysts. Ten analysts expect a decline, with three expecting a rise. Estimates range from a rise of 2.5 million barrels to a drop of 2.5 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall by 300,000 barrels. Eight analysts expect a decline, while five see an increase. Forecasts range from a drop of two million barrels to a gain of 1.9 million barrels.

Refinery use is seen rising 0.5 percentage point to 89.5% of capacity, based on EIA data. Nine analysts expect a gain, two expect a decline and two didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a rise of 1.5 points to a drop of 0.5 point.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the same week showed that crude inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels in the week, gasoline supplies fell by 4.1 million barrels and distillate stocks rose by 18,000 barrels, according to market participants.


Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital 3.9 -0.8 0.5 0.77
Citi Futures Perspective 4.5 -2.5 -1.0 0.5
Confluence Investment Management 3.5 -0.5 -0.5 1.5
EBW AnalyticsGroup 6.0 2.5 1.0 0.2
Energy Management Institute 5.0 1.0 1.9 -0.3
Excel Futures 6.7 -1.8 0.9 0.9
Frost & Sullivan 2.75 -2.0 -1.5 0.5
IAF Advisors 4.5 0.5 -1.5 n/a
Price Futures Group 2.0 -1.5 -2.0 -0.5
Ritterbusch and Associates 5.2 -0.5 1.1 1.0
Schneider Electric 6.8 -2.0 -0.5 0.4
Tradition Energy 3.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5
Tyche Capital Advisors 5.75 -2.5 -1.5 n/a

AVERAGE 4.6 -0.9 -0.3 0.5


(Figures in millions of barrels except for refining capacity, which is reported in percentage points. For analysts providing forecasts in a range, the average of the upper and lower ends of the range is used.)

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Good luck everybody!

Thursday
11:30
02/04/15
GB index of business activity in the construction sector
(GB Construction PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
02/04/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average response when triggered flip-flops 40.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.

Do you think that do trading with the news could be a good idea? Don't you think that maybe some news can be manipulated and put there on purpose?

This question you ask yourself?

Thursday April 2, 2015

At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Natural Gas Inventories. Check expected number tomorrow a couple of minutes before the publication, prior reading is +12 Bcf. Based on the average prediction of 26 analysts surveyed by Energy Metro Desk we have:

Range: 39 Bcf
Highe estimate: +22 Bcf
Low estimate: -17 Bcf
Average: 11 Bcf
Standard deviation: 4.5

Good luck everybody!

Friday
15:30
04/03/15
US Number of employed outside agriculture HOT!
(US Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

HOT!
US Number of employed outside agriculture
US Non-Farm Employment Change


Difficult day. Difficult release. Firstly, Good Friday, which is "close" all the banks on vacation. Second, low liquidity, caused by the first paragraph. Third - the complexity of the report, due to the increased attention to the salary levels, but first things first.
Good Friday and Easter Monday - Weekend: banking institutions key countries will be closed for the holidays. Logically think about the low liquidity of the market, and as a consequence: gaps, slippage, spread, ofkvoty and other amenities (though on a significant scale). Likely to be the situation taper: when the reaction may be sufficient, but its quality will be minimal (entrance at the end of the movement).
In 2014, Good Friday was April 18
In 2013 - March 29
2012 - April 6
2011 - April 22
2010 - April 2
In this important publications (in particular in the form of NFP) were only in 2010 and 2012.
April 2010 deviation was -23K while the USDJPY has grown ... but everything is very simple, it was the first positive growth in the number of employed, before February 2008 markets saw only negative values. Despite the "nedotyagivanie" to the forecast, the pair still has grown since the first time in four years, the number of employed to put on weight. But this is a story ...
April 2012. Large negative deviation from the forecast -85K, the reaction is also good: 80 points fall in the first minute in the required direction ... There was a lot of positive.
Low liquidity. Low liquidity may well allow you to work, but over the years the conditions in this case become tougher: better get ready to slip, though always two sides of the coin - a lot of market participants simply will not have a monitor at the moment.
Do not forget that the smaller the lot, the higher the chances to gain entry into the market - more than once proved.
Moodiness report. The report data set, and no system for conflict prevention work here will be rather difficult, if not impossible. Technically be registered server - see "triggers."
Immediately once again draw attention to the package of income levels. Economists believe that revenue growth will accelerate inflation. Recall that for a Fed rate hike, FOMC wants to make sure that inflation will reach the target level of 2% - a hint sufficiently transparent.
«Average earnings» may pull the blanket over.
It should be soberly perceive as the benefits of the report and its "terrible" shortcomings.
Required if you have any questions - ask them in the comments, nothing wrong with that, but on the contrary, benefit, as well as the author of this article and its readers.
Conclusions do such. The reaction may well be, and significant (at sufficient triggers), but this time a high chance of spread and slippage than usual. Lot below, will not only improve security, but also be able to improve your chances at all.