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  • #975,821
  • Mar 31, 2015 2:43pm Mar 31, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting guzda
{quote} Please don't forget that this oil and dollar situation is mostly because geopolitical situation. One word - RUSSIA.

It has an A and I, it even has a U and and S but it is spelled Saudi, the good old ME alliance of the US has been increasing production EVERY month for 2 years, of course oil is dropping like a brick and as soon as the shale industry is in shambles in the US the good 'ole partner will drop production, mission accomplished. They can afford for oil to drop down to a tenner, the US can't. Their BE is at 9 d/b, the US is running anywhere from 45-85 d/b


Have a look at the MOMR, we are at a 19-month high.
A contrarian; I always disagree.
  • #975,822
  • Mar 31, 2015 2:46pm Mar 31, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting flx
{quote} Thank you Sisse. 200 or 300 Billions per year!!? Only that will increase 50% of US gov. annual Deficit. It is really a hard choice. {image}
...where are you are trying to aim with that? je je je.

Well, public budgets don't quite work like that. I see the point you are trying to make but you are forgetting the other side of the budget: income and more importantly you are assuming 0 GDP growth and everything else stuck in recession/flat mode and only interest payments increasing which is not true. However , its definitively an interesting question for those in public finance.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #975,823
  • Mar 31, 2015 2:49pm Mar 31, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting jplazard
{quote} Dont worry about knowing the currency theories it only helps in cocktail parties or chatting up some big wig who only reads the economist. PA and not listening to media or these random theories will serve you just fine. I have to stop myself from reading all these blogs from economist because I know historically when they predict prices they're usually wrong. Best of luck and KISS is the way to be consistent.
TRUE
  • #975,824
  • Mar 31, 2015 2:55pm Mar 31, 2015 2:55pm
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} A central bank has 3 seperate rates, the rates at the ECB are +0.30%/+0.05%/ -0.20% I will leave it to you to figure out what they mean and what they do........ A Central bank does several things with money, some goes in, some goes out, some stays a while.......
And negative rates are for saving currency at bank account to push people to invest in other forms. No one keep money on the bank account except money launders, so that rate is inadequate.
  • #975,825
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:05pm Mar 31, 2015 3:05pm
Closed long, waiting for shorts at 1.0766.
Life only tastes good when you eat what you kill.
  • #975,826
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:27pm Mar 31, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} It has an A and I, it even has a U and and S but it is spelled Saudi, the good old ME alliance of the US has been increasing production EVERY month for 2 years, of course oil is dropping like a brick and as soon as the shale industry is in shambles in the US the good 'ole partner will drop production, mission accomplished. They can afford for oil to drop down to a tenner, the US can't. Their BE is at 9 d/b, the US is running anywhere from 45-85 d/b Have a look at the MOMR, we are at a 19-month high.
US can run 45 barrel per oil, quetion is just for how long. Look at first cold war for clue.
  • #975,827
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:30pm Mar 31, 2015 3:30pm
Tomorrow ADP probably better than expected and markets will be waiting for NFP which can be very interesting because most of the markets will be closed, so liquidity should be very shallow.
  • #975,828
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:46pm Mar 31, 2015 3:46pm
Quoting JustAndy
{quote} Wait...you trade with 100 lots ????
Yeah, must be nice huh?! My trade sizes are based on a % of my account balance, and if my calculations are right, I've got a WAYS to go before I'm trading 100 lots at a time. Like... when my account reaches around $1M! (Looking forward to it!)
  • #975,829
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:47pm Mar 31, 2015 3:47pm
Quote
Quoting jplazard
{quote} Dont worry about knowing the currency theories it only helps in cocktail parties or chatting up some big wig who only reads the economist. PA and not listening to media or these random theories will serve you just fine. I have to stop myself from reading all these blogs from economist because I know historically when they predict prices they're usually wrong. Best of luck and KISS is the way to be consistent.

I concur
  • #975,830
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:56pm Mar 31, 2015 3:56pm
[quote=Neqrotik;8176756]{quote} It is against any true traders better judgement to indulge in idle banter with you. But I would suggest that talking about other people is hardly a good use of your time. If time is money of course. But any response from you may be indicative that you don't necessarily agree.[/quo

Please read what I said again... I would not disrespect any trader here, and I was not entering into idle banter with you. In fact the reply I received from jplazared.. was exactly what I expected from a well balanced trader... Just the other side of the coin if you like... I apologize if you think to contrary my intention of the statement I made...
  • #975,831
  • Mar 31, 2015 3:58pm Mar 31, 2015 3:58pm
Quoting Ratmach
{quote} Yeah, must be nice huh?! My trade sizes are based on a % of my account balance, and if my calculations are right, I've got a WAYS to go before I'm trading 100 lots at a time. Like... when my account reaches around $1M! (Looking forward to it!)
Assuming he has 20k to risk and can trade with 1:500 leverage, it's possible... I would still find it difficult to develop that kind of stomach that kind of risk though..
Life only tastes good when you eat what you kill.
  • #975,832
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:04pm Mar 31, 2015 4:04pm
Quoting jplazard
{quote} Dont worry about knowing the currency theories it only helps in cocktail parties or chatting up some big wig who only reads the economist. PA and not listening to media or these random theories will serve you just fine. I have to stop myself from reading all these blogs from economist because I know historically when they predict prices they're usually wrong. Best of luck and KISS is the way to be consistent.

Another well balanced individual... agree with your view completely...
  • #975,833
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:23pm Mar 31, 2015 4:23pm
Like usual in the most important and key days rolls, barely can hear crickets in the thread ...je je je ...

and we roll. A very strong bearish quarterly close. Parity looks around the corner. Technically it was unlocked last month close but now we got the confirmation in the Quarterly. Monthly also closing very bearish. Parity naked now and the extension 0.972x looks set for later with hikes.

Daily held the break 1.076x unlocking the swing 1.049x with intermediate stops at 1.065x and 1.058x. However, we got a slightly bullish Intraday close for a potential new test 1.077x and 1.082x until NFP.

Map pretty much clean and clear for trading.

GL all trading next quarter.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #975,834
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:28pm Mar 31, 2015 4:28pm
I have copied the trades to my demo trade explorer since October 2014.. testing on majors.. I hope no one thinks I'm in anyway disrespecting the number of very clever people on here, in fact Ive subscribed to a few already. Just in relation to those that wish to be traders... you do not need to be a qualified analyst to become a consistent profitable trader.. Just wish I was smarter, so I could even understand what they are talking about..[/quote]

A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #975,835
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:38pm Mar 31, 2015 4:38pm
Quoting cherader
{quote} Assuming he has 20k to risk and can trade with 1:500 leverage, it's possible... I would still find it difficult to develop that kind of stomach that kind of risk though..
Yeah, 1:50 max leverage here.... and I don't think I'd go higher than that even if I could. (Even my "gradual but consistent" style can be a little stressing at times... don't need anything on top of that. )
  • #975,836
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:39pm Mar 31, 2015 4:39pm
Quoting sisse
Like usual in the most important and key days rolls, barely can hear crickets in the thread ...je je je ... and we roll. A very strong bearish quarterly close. Parity looks around the corner. Technically it was unlocked last month close but now we got the confirmation in the Quarterly. Monthly also closing very bearish. Parity naked now and the extension 0.972x looks set for later with hikes. Daily held the break 1.076x unlocking the swing 1.049x with intermediate stops at 1.065x and 1.058x. However, we got a slightly bullish Intraday close for...
Perhaps a small case of squeeze the shorts out before the drop.
  • #975,837
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:48pm Mar 31, 2015 4:48pm
Quoting ill_be_back
I have copied the trades to my demo trade explorer since October 2014.. testing on majors.. I hope no one thinks I'm in anyway disrespecting the number of very clever people on here, in fact Ive subscribed to a few already. Just in relation to those that wish to be traders... you do not need to be a qualified analyst to become a consistent profitable trader.. Just wish I was smarter, so I could even understand what they are talking about..
[/quote]

Analysts are the guys coming by subway telling investors that came in Rolls Royce what to do ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #975,838
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:53pm Mar 31, 2015 4:53pm
Quoting jplazard
{quote} Hes mentioning the fed funds futures market right now is not pricing in June.
That's right ... They point to a rate hike in late summer ...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #975,839
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:54pm Mar 31, 2015 4:54pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote}
Analysts are the guys coming by subway telling investors that came in Rolls Royce what to do ...[/quote]

That is the natural way, until analysts come in Rolls and start to be investors; natural money circulation
  • #975,840
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:57pm Mar 31, 2015 4:57pm
And 1.0724 holding like a charm ... low vol low risk trading ... watch the low tho , otherwise coiling up.
Futures will open with a gap-up in a couple of minutes.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
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