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  • #975,741
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:00pm Mar 31, 2015 12:00pm
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} from 2002 to today, ive seen only one double bottom...(2008) and we all know that calling a double bottom when there is 3000 pips in between doesn't really count as it...so i Wonder why you quote your last post....this is not very clever from you...and besides, it isn't hard to think the next move, it won't be a double bottom....it doesn't mean you can predict what will happens in 2 weeks or even in 2016-17-18 from today...
I was not quoting the double bottom but the price target below which were mentioned. I was mentioning the fact we had a 61.8% fib on eur at 1.0930-40 on friday US session where London recoveerd only to trade at that price and sell off which was mentioned several hours in advance. Then, we hit the target knowing full well given an ABCD pattern was taking place.

I have to disagree with you on not being able to predict exchange rates on the short term such as a week or even a few days. If you looked at those charts below and saw the green buy rectangle and the red sell rectangle on USD and EUR futuurs. I mentioned several hours earlier in my thread to wait for them to come back at that price which I even stated that US session would be the one to take us there. And then several hours later after the false breakdwon in London on Friday and melup in Dollar they came exactly to that price. Short term a day or two exchange rates can be predicted in advance.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post8171262
(markets in London before those targets were hit to go long US and Short EU)
  • #975,742
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:05pm Mar 31, 2015 12:05pm
important test for UC bears underway
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #975,743
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:07pm Mar 31, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} {quote} Its pointing to 0920's as its next small target underway for 1.1060's first and 1.12/3 later (yet to be confirmed at 1.1160)
Not sure about that mate. 1.12xx/1.13xx is very locked i my charts for now and a Q/M roll below 1.072x will also kill 1.092x.

Europe went home and nothing new in the euro for the last session. 1.072x is the level in play for the close.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #975,744
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:11pm Mar 31, 2015 12:11pm
Revisit to 0713 is required for bulls - Just my thought.
  • #975,745
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:12pm Mar 31, 2015 12:12pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Halfway to target {image}
  • #975,746
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:15pm Mar 31, 2015 12:15pm
Quoting jplazard
{quote}.... I have to disagree with you on not being able to predict exchange rates on the short term such as a week or even a few days. If you looked at those charts below and saw the green buy rectangle and the red sell rectangle on USD and EUR futuurs. I mentioned several hours earlier in my thread to wait for them to come back at that price which I even stated that US session would be the one to take us there......
Good points you're making there. The shorter the projection period the more predictable it becomes.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #975,747
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:19pm Mar 31, 2015 12:19pm
Quoting 10cents
{quote} Just curious, isn't a return to the 1.082 level bad for the bears?

It is SHORT TERM. Eur futures still needs to fill this gap which stands at 1.0670-40 range. That was the second rectangle I drew as the abc completion pattern.. Once that happens we would be EXTREME OVERSOLD on H4 and we would see a bounce. If you notice we are trading right a support on EUR fut currently before the gap fill which is about 75 ticks lower. once it hits that level either its going likely to bounce higher to a new fib point from the 3/26 daily hi to the swing low whenever that takes place and continue lower. When I mentioned double bottom, to the trader on Sunday, I was not stating there was a double bottom simply that markets both equities, currencies and other asset classes on a daily chart experience double bottoms at minimum before reversal. I was not saying once we trade at the targets below were are at at DB.


If 1.0820 hit today it would not have been bad simply because that was the US session low and it would of been meet with renewed selling or resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #975,748
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:24pm Mar 31, 2015 12:24pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Good points you're making there. The shorter the projection period the more predictable it becomes.

Thank you. Yes I have found patterns consistently show up in charts which can be calculated using Fibs to determine 'waves' to get long or short or to lock in profit.
  • #975,749
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:24pm Mar 31, 2015 12:24pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not sure about that mate. 1.12xx/1.13xx is very locked i my charts for now and a Q/M roll below 1.072x will also kill 1.092x. Europe went home and nothing new in the euro for the last session. 1.072x is the level in play for the close. sisse
PA isnt very supportive for reversal scenarios - yes, but until it sits here - no shake. It might want to pierce in to 690's before really doing something about it. I think bastards are making M close to look more bearish than it really is..
69
  • #975,750
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:27pm Mar 31, 2015 12:27pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} PA dragging its feet, too slow for a CT trade ... did make a fast move to 1.0772 though... out @ 1.0741 for +17 pips and flat.
Although I exited this trade for a small profit because I wasn't willing to monitor the position for the rest of the session, I do still think this could turn out to be a good long trade provided today's lows hold.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #975,751
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:33pm Mar 31, 2015 12:33pm
euro became a bit weaker than last week, but now the weakest currency is AUD.


In the view of analysts at BAML, the pair could grind lower to the area of 0.73 towards the end of the current year and 0.68 at the end of 2016.
  • #975,752
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:34pm Mar 31, 2015 12:34pm
Does anyone consider a spike up before daily close, drawing nice monthly pin bar, followed by massive move up next month? Backed up by some fundamentals which none of us are aware of YET?
Just trying to think out of the box here...
  • #975,753
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:35pm Mar 31, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} PA isnt very supportive for reversal scenarios - yes, but until it sits here - no shake. It might want to pierce in to 690's before really doing something about it. I think bastards are making M close to look more bearish than it really is..
Well, its is very bearish and is not much to hide to be honest. More important for today is Quarterly close. Despite of the exact close today. Only a miracle will stop euro seeing parity in the next Q bar.

Map is getting clearer by the minute for this week and for the next swing leg. We'll get the full map in a few with the close today. Also, tomorrow is last official day of trading in Europe before everything is pretty much "close" [not really close but dead"] until next Tuesday so will have very low liquidity and plenty of air for NFP ....and with a roll below 1.076x, inertia will be in play....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #975,754
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:35pm Mar 31, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} PA isnt very supportive for reversal scenarios - yes, but until it sits here - no shake. It might want to pierce in to 690's before really doing something about it. I think bastards are making M close to look more bearish than it really is..
Agree w/ you. And I'd want the majority to be bearish, will only cause a bigger/faster move higher when it's time.
  • #975,755
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:36pm Mar 31, 2015 12:36pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well, its is very bearish and is not much to hide to be honest. More important for today is Quarterly close. Despite of the exact close today. Only a miracle will stop euro seeing parity in the next Q bar. Map is getting clearer by the minute for this week and for the next swing leg. We'll get the full map in a few with the close today. Also, tomorrow is last official day of trading in Europe before everything is pretty much "close" [not really close but dead"] until next Tuesday so will have very low liquidity and plenty of air for...
Only a miracle, really? I'd take the other side of that bet.
  • #975,756
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:39pm Mar 31, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well, its is very bearish and is not much to hide to be honest. More important for today is Quarterly close. Despite of the exact close today. Only a miracle will stop euro seeing parity in the next Q bar. Map is getting clearer by the minute for this week and for the next swing leg. We'll get the full map in a few with the close today. Also, tomorrow is last official day of trading in Europe before everything is pretty much "close" [not really close but dead"] until next Tuesday so will have very low liquidity and plenty of air for NFP...
One scenario you may not be thinking of. Say the DAX and European stocks come down 5-10% or so in the next 6 months after April..... where do you think some of that $$$ will go? I'd think some Euros will be bought. -- So that's one scenario that isn't exactly miraculous after such a massive up move in the Dax. Again, I'm not saying EU can't go back to the lows or even a bit lower, although I do think that's unlikely. Originally my plan was go long from 1.05 levels to 1.08-1.1 then short for parity, but I'm just not seeing parity coming any time soon. It's become a consensus trade. Consensus trades don't make money.
  • #975,757
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:42pm Mar 31, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Only a miracle, really? I'd take the other side of that bet.
go for it ... drop us a line in July to see how it goes...

Quoting Ck87
{quote} One scenario you may not be thinking of. Say the DAX and European stocks come down 5-10% or so in the next 6 months after April..... where do you think some of that $$$ will go? I'd think some Euros will be bought. -- So that's one scenario that isn't exactly miraculous after such a massive up move in the Dax
Dollar of course. Why on earth any sane investor would pay banks a "deposit fee" and leave mountains of cash sitting in euros with negative rates when the FED is hiking.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #975,758
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:49pm Mar 31, 2015 12:49pm
EUR/USD broke below the support at 1.0820 and it's likely headed for the previous low at 1.0460. That said, nothing is certain considering that the US Non-farm Payrolls are on Friday.
  • #975,759
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:51pm Mar 31, 2015 12:51pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} One scenario you may not be thinking of. Say the DAX and European stocks come down 5-10% or so in the next 6 months after April..... where do you think some of that $$$ will go? I'd think some Euros will be bought. -- So that's one scenario that isn't exactly miraculous after such a massive up move in the Dax. Again, I'm not saying EU can't go back to the lows or even a bit lower, although I do think that's unlikely. Originally my plan was go long from 1.05 levels to 1.08-1.1 then short for parity, but I'm just not seeing parity coming any...

Oh! ffs..stop spouting shite..... plenty of money has been made on that "consensus" short..

You will roll out your old chestnut next.........." it's going to 1.11... or is it 1.13...... but just to cover your arse....it may go 1.05..... how fucking big is that arse of yours... get real...

Actually just re-read your buddys journal....1.16... lol.... that made me fuckin laff.........
All My Opinions, Are Just That, My Opinion!!!
  • #975,760
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:53pm Mar 31, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting jplazard
{quote} It is SHORT TERM. Eur futures still needs to fill this gap which stands at 1.0670-40 range. That was the second rectangle I drew as the abc completion pattern.. Once that happens we would be EXTREME OVERSOLD on H4 and we would see a bounce. If you notice we are trading right a support on EUR fut currently before the gap fill which is about 75 ticks lower. {image}
FX futures are interesting. Do you trade them past settlement into TKY trading session ... or call it a day at settlement...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
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