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  • #975,561
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:03am Mar 31, 2015 4:03am
Quoting Sants
{quote} tyrant, are you taking into account that strong dollar might hurt USA economy? i heard FED taking into account the strong dollar into their consideration for hike due to slower inflation?
Slower inflation?? you do realise that US is not in danger of Deflation... their inflationary number is far better than those in Europe... US is in the 2% area... while Europe is struggling to stay above 0....
another thing... US does not care much about strong US Dollar.... US is a net import nation..... not much of export.... so strong dollar is warranted. as the fed has said countless times that Strong Dollar and weak oil is a net gain for the US economy.. why? because of their consumers.
Strong dollar means US consumers would spend, would be able to have incomes. and weak oil is like a tax benefit for the consumers..... the amount of money saved on oil per household is now being used as household consumption....

US' economy is not an export driven growth... its the consumers.....
and domestic consumption does not care about strong dollar. domestic consumption cares more about employment, and wages growth. thats it.
so yes i have factored in the dollar impact on US economy, and strong dollar is a non-factor.
employment and wage and domestic consumption plays a bigger part to US economy growth.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #975,562
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:05am Mar 31, 2015 4:05am
can i expect it's going to test 1.0650....
wait for good news..
  • #975,563
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:06am Mar 31, 2015 4:06am
Trading with fxtyrant:

1- with -250 pips just calma
2- calm again 8)
3- Watch the red how it will turn to blue
4- we are 70 pips away from reaching target


Thanks fxtyrant 8)
  • #975,564
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:06am Mar 31, 2015 4:06am
Quoting Sants
AU today needs to close above 0.7642 for bulls power. gotta buy at 0.7618/0.7626 by tomorrow if todays close as expected. By looking at the EU, USD seems does not hestitate to go deeper on EUR until it reach the 0.650-0.660 meanwhile UJ, USD lost some power to hike. thinking short usd tomorrow if couple of pair showing weakness
be careful... there is demand in dollar but also in YEN.... watch out for comments from BOJ that will diminish the demand of JPY... then you'll see USDJPY flying to 124. dont bet on shorting the USDJPY... you will get hurt.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #975,565
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:07am Mar 31, 2015 4:07am
Quoting mohwazzan
Trading with fxtyrant: 1- with -250 pips just calma 2- calm again 8) 3- Watch the red how it will turn to blue 4- we are 70 pips away from reaching target Thanks fxtyrant 8)
you are welcome.
enjoy the profits my friend.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #975,566
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:07am Mar 31, 2015 4:07am
Quoting redbaron1981
{quote} A poor Flash CPI could take us there. we seem to have cleared everything technically down to 1.061X.
Agree. Euro lost key 1.076x intraday unlocking a full range till 1.048x and intermediate stop at 1.065x and 1.058x but we may have just completed the morning session with a test 1.071x. Decent and inline european news completed so trying to look for the reverse play on previous long stops quickly otherwise need NY.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #975,567
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:08am Mar 31, 2015 4:08am
Quoting BlueCirrus
....Bears have their argument for next week too...............Have a good weekend! {image}
Bears pretty much have their objective for this sequence (106.87 remains)...See if the bulls have any response....
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  • #975,568
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:09am Mar 31, 2015 4:09am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Slower inflation?? you do realise that US is not in danger of Deflation... their inflationary number is far better than those in Europe... US is in the 2% area... while Europe is struggling to stay above 0.... another thing... US does not care much about strong US Dollar.... US is a net import nation..... not much of export.... so strong dollar is warranted. as the fed has said countless times that Strong Dollar and weak oil is a net gain for the US economy.. why? because of their consumers. Strong dollar means US consumers would spend,...
yeah i agree with USA economy is far better than europe by its inflation number. but, isnt the fed is hesitate to hike the rate if the inflation still below 2%? further postponding?

got little case here about strong dollar: " Rising dollar lowers the value and sales which are made overseas. As far as I know USA exports Machines. Electronic equipment, pumps, and oil. Also might do something with aircraft, car and military equipment. Their biggest exports go to China, Japan and Germany. They should definitely care about strong US dollar." quoted by a trader is it true then for slower inflation?

Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} be careful... there is demand in dollar but also in YEN.... watch out for comments from BOJ that will diminish the demand of JPY... then you'll see USDJPY flying to 124. dont bet on shorting the USDJPY... you will get hurt.
yeah im not beting on UJ of course, boj still unconfirmed, but hey actually april is coming and boj sounds like speak out their mind. perhaps long on au and nu if daily setup confirmed
  • #975,569
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:13am Mar 31, 2015 4:13am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} yep lots of things happening UC almost tapping 4hr previous highs 2757, just a matter of getting levels to step up, been a usd days so far could be a sucker move, my guess is jumpers left right and centre may get their butt spanked
have UC up and EC down. that makes EU a flat pig or actually the driver?!
seems UC sgonna rise further . the problem is ECad. I have sells on the highs and havent jumped in y. was quoted just couldnt pull the trigger. had to many positions to nurture


concerning AUDXXX i would look at GA where the fooker will stop. but dont consider it will end there. perhaps some redeveloping on some other AUDxxx could be possible in that time. plus, xxxAUDxxx making some highz/lows which makes it more dificult to buy AUD.

xxxjpy looks ok and stable atm. nice hybernation into strenght
  • #975,570
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:14am Mar 31, 2015 4:14am
Quoting Sants
{quote} yeah i agree with USA economy is far better than europe by its inflation number. but, isnt the fed is hesitate to hike the rate if the inflation still below 2%? further postponding? got little case here about strong dollar: " Rising dollar lowers the value and sales which are made overseas. As far as I know USA exports Machines. Electronic equipment, pumps, and oil. Also might do something with aircraft, car and military equipment. Their biggest exports go to China, Japan and Germany. They should definitely care about strong US dollar."...
but as i said..... countless times US economy is not a NET Exporter... yes Export based businesses in US will suffer... especially the Lower / Mid cap companies.... but US are full of multinational firms with say mcdonalds who operates not necessarily in US but also in japan, france etc etc. they can make money in euro, yen or whatever currencies but they are not in a hurry to convert. also you need to also consider that business in US maybe hedged against risk to their businesses if the Dollar are to rise in value... heard of Futures Options? some businesses may have already locked in a hedging position so that whatever Euro they get they can still convert it at a level of 1.2 because of their Futures contract.
so dont automatically assume that Strong dollar is bad for US economy... in fact Strong Dollar and weaker oil is actually great for the US economy.... its like a tax break for the US consumers.... suddenly money spent on oil at 100 now being spend on say 50 usd, people can actually spend 50 usd of that oil depreciated value on other stuff.... on business in US. like Buying from Best Buy, buying from Home Depot, and support the US businesses, so US businesses gets profits and US business gets profit then they can hire, and their hiring means more people have income, and having income means more people can shop in US again...
its a healthy cycle the US is in ATM.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #975,571
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:19am Mar 31, 2015 4:19am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} but as i said..... countless times US economy is not a NET Exporter... yes Export based businesses in US will suffer... especially the Lower / Mid cap companies.... but US are full of multinational firms with say mcdonalds who operates not necessarily in US but also in japan, france etc etc. they can make money in euro, yen or whatever currencies but they are not in a hurry to convert. also you need to also consider that business in US maybe hedged against risk to their businesses if the Dollar are to rise in value... heard of Futures Options?...
damn u explain this in perfect sense. just argued with this trader about usa not really matter with strong dollar as trade balance itself is negative 40b, lose because lack of fundie :nerd:anw, thankya

do you think AU will reduce the rate this early april?

Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} be careful... there is demand in dollar but also in YEN.... watch out for comments from BOJ that will diminish the demand of JPY... then you'll see USDJPY flying to 124. dont bet on shorting the USDJPY... you will get hurt.
what kind of key words is that? further qe?
  • #975,572
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:25am Mar 31, 2015 4:25am
Nice! EU TP hit 1.072 Didn't expect it that quickly. Looks like a reload higher (e.g. a small rebound to D S2?) might not be a bad idea. If Sisse is talking about lower levels, that's encouraging! First focus will be 1.065 though. I like to keep it conservative.


PS where is gator? Taking one of his signature inbetween naps?
  • #975,573
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:28am Mar 31, 2015 4:28am
Quoting Sants
{quote} damn u explain this in perfect sense. just argued with this trader about usa not really matter with strong dollar as trade balance itself is negative 40b, lose because lack of fundie :nerd:anw, thankya do you think AU will reduce the rate this early april? {quote} what kind of key words is that? further qe?
For the RBA interest rate cut.... heres something im very very confused. China looks eager to do whatever it takes to maintain their growth rates, and they would ease but recent round of Yuan strength is confusing..... problem is China is still one of australia's biggest trading partner....
one part of me wonders.... IF China eases, then AUD/CNY would rise too fast meaning China may find AUD expensive and not buy australian exports.... under that mindset i would think that the RBA would not allow the AUD to appreciate too fast agains the CNY.... so RBA might lower interest rates by 25bp.....

heres my dilemma..... which currencies to bet on RBA to cut interest rates against??

my best guesses are to bet on AUDUSD to fall, and possibly AUDCNY to fall in the short term (also holding long CNY positions give you great swaps) i dont see EURAUD and GBPAUD as good longs if RBA are to cut rates though.... avoid these pairs...

above is only guesses if RBA were to cut rates...... if they dont... oh gosh then we might have some interesting trades....
i would short EURAUD and GBPAUD if RBA doesnt cut rates....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #975,574
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:29am Mar 31, 2015 4:29am
Quoting fxtyrant
I'm back... good gosh was reading the forum while i was suspended and the whole thing turned bad... someone here was even trying to claim that the Germans have 11 trillion euro in deposits and that they're the riches nation on earth.... gosh... Anyways, my trading is back open to public. followers can enjoy the growth again.
Welcome back......
  • #975,575
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:34am Mar 31, 2015 4:34am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} have UC up and EC down. that makes EU a flat pig or actually the driver?! seems UC sgonna rise further . the problem is ECad. I have sells on the highs and havent jumped in y. was quoted just couldnt pull the trigger. had to many positions to nurture concerning AUDXXX i would look at GA where the fooker will stop. but dont consider it will end there. perhaps some redeveloping on some other AUDxxx could be possible in that time. plus, xxxAUDxxx making some highz/lows which makes it more dificult to buy AUD. xxxjpy looks ok and stable atm....
not so sure about UC agree there is room to top of last 2 months range, incidentally it is a rising channel approaching the top of range 2819, really gota go monthly to bring in previous highs early 2009 really wicky clusterfluk 6 months worth, sure hope we dont have that again right now its a bullish encompassing todays close will give true motnhly candle, becareful with thinking higher she could of course, but im thinking bears will not let the encompassing candle complete, which is pointing to a dump between now and todays close
if it happens I want a piece of it, and in reality sl is accpetably cheap, I like cheap
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #975,576
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:37am Mar 31, 2015 4:37am
Quoting fxtyrant
from my data, 1.0690 is an interesting level to be watching today..... that might be today's low.
as i said. 1.0690 would be an interesting level to watch for today.
might be the lows of today.... doesnt mean its the low of the week though.....

if 1.0690 killed then next level to watch is 1.0588
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #975,577
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:41am Mar 31, 2015 4:41am
Quoting Kofmaster
{quote} I dont have position in 1.15 I do have position in 1.17 but closed since the last nfp btm for 870+ pips. I do have my fair share of impatient, and sometimes breaking my own rules too. I could short right here, right now. But if the price bounce from lets say 1.06 then your entry can goes back to negative. So whats the point? Right now, I'm aiming tp for parity, or rather close to parity so when I enter a trade, I'll make sure it straight away goes to my tp without much hesitation or in this case it will make lower low, and I dont think this...
Thank you very much !!!!
  • #975,578
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:47am Mar 31, 2015 4:47am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} For the RBA interest rate cut.... heres something im very very confused. China looks eager to do whatever it takes to maintain their growth rates, and they would ease but recent round of Yuan strength is confusing..... problem is China is still one of australia's biggest trading partner.... one part of me wonders.... IF China eases, then AUD/CNY would rise too fast meaning China may find AUD expensive and not buy australian exports.... under that mindset i would think that the RBA would not allow the AUD to appreciate too fast agains the...
Recent China manufacturing data seems not good. any news provider where i can get china ease directly? ff does not provide that one.
its valid in the latest upcoming RBA meeting 7 april? Thats explain why PA now approaching daily support for the big boys chop them up? big boys came to arena and spur the trap for bull till 7 april upcoming RBA cut rates? if u were the big boys, dont you think the same?
  • #975,579
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:50am Mar 31, 2015 4:50am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} started with 5k usd, but that was years ago..... just thinking about it... the lot size i was trading back then, no change to the risk involved..... be it 5k at 0.2 lot or 50k at 2 lot or 500k at 20 lot... risk never more never less.
Hey, man. does it mean all open positions have to be of that lot size?
  • #975,580
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:50am Mar 31, 2015 4:50am
Oh my lol
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