News trading discussion - continuation

At 5:30 am EST the UK will release Retail Sales. Expected at 0.4 after a prior of -0.3.


At 10:30 am EST the EIA will release Natural Gas Inventories. Check expected number tomorrow a couple of minutes before the publication, prior reading is -45 Bcf.

Range: 32 Bcf
High estimate: +25 Bcf
Low estimate: -7 Bcf
Average: 8.4 Bcf
Standard deviation: 6.9 Bcf

Good luck everybody!

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Probably the expectations of Fed rate will take the emphasis in September.

Wednesday was not eventful, but some messages that could easily pass you by, it's worth noting: Lockhart, Evans and durable goods orders.
In the last trading session tranquil New Zealander had no choice but as close to the heart to receive the data of the trade balance, which came well below forecasts: 50M (N $) against the 350M (N $). In this case, the Association of Producers and Exporters of New Zealand lamented the high exchange rate NZD, which is "still harms exporters and manufacturers' association calls" to find a solution that allows you to avoid the excessive growth of housing prices and an overvalued currency. "
IFO economists noted that the weak euro, low oil prices affect the optimistic expectations, the risk of an overheated German economy is not seen.

US Core Durable Goods Orders -0,4% vs. 0.3% forecast. Durable Goods Orders -1,4% vs. 0.3% forecast - data may be premature to talk about thinking about cloudless in the US economy.

Evans, Chicago Fed said he would be surprised if does not see inflation. "We need to look at this, and if this is allowed - not to delay raising interest rates.

Lockhart, the Fed, "Very likely" that the rate will be raised this year. Not so important whether the rates increased in June or September (!).

The market remains in the dark short-term prospects of the dollar, these questions will already meet the recent data in April, among which will be marked (other than the labor market) and a preliminary look at the GDP of the first quarter 2015.

VVFish, I am curious to know how you enter your trades. I have been visisting this thread for the info on the red news. I was lucky I read your pot on the pending Norwegian Interest rate decision. I went on to make some good pips on. Otherwise I would have missed it.

I mainly trade red news. But my approach is very slow and some times it takes long to land a trade. like this week I have not had any good trade yet. This is why I have picked interest in your method. Do you just wait on the trigger and go with the direction the price takes as soon as the move starts. You seem to get it right most of the time.

Could someone plz explain to me this system or at least give me
a link of the page it is explained because there are actually too many pages to see them all.
It seems very interesting btw

Start here to read the first page is mandatory.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=493948

VVFISH

Iv been watching you over a year now and i must say you are getting good
i just want to say thank you for posting every day

Thank you my friend.

Friday
14:30
03/27/15
The final US GDP
(US Final GDP), the United States, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.
​
Good luck everybody!

Thoughts on "smart traders"

March fundamental outcome.

In March, there was enough of fundamental events that should not only remember, but also to take them with you in April.

Fighting accents Federal Reserve System

For the second week in a row we have seen the "torment" of the dollar caused by the FOMC minutes neutrality with regard to the Fed raising interest rates this summer.

Now analysts lay only 14% chance of a rate hike in June, the emphasis gradually rolls waiting for autumn 2015.
"Turtle", or, if you will, "whales" solutions change monetary policy, inflation acts - Committee clearly wants satisfied to achieve a 2% level of the consumer price index before the decision is taken.
Stupor greenbacks can be overcome in the next week as a result of the publication of the indicators that allow the market to further assess the prospects for employment in the country.
Next week, look at the publication of the data component of employment sentiment index according to the ISM, in both the production and service sectors, as well as the average value of Non-farm from ADP.

On Friday, the report will be published Non-Farm Payrolls

Important indicators of the outgoing week:

CPI m / m 0.2% 0.2% -0.7%
Core CPI m / m 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% (taken as positive: it is important in assessing the possibility of changing the interest rate the central bank)
Core Durable Goods Orders m / m -0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Durable Goods Orders m / m -1.4% 0.3% 2.0% (perceived as negative: it is important in the evaluation of consumer sentiment)
Final GDP q / q 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% (can be perceived as neutral).

Deflation test the patience of the Bank of England

The annual rate of consumer price index published exactly at the level of 0%, which was expected by the market, and in fact by the Bank of England. Figure stopped at the border between inflation and deflation is just one step.
We have already said that the CPI fall into negative territory can provoke very serious action on the part of the Bank, to which can be ascribed to the reduction in interest rates.

Important publications of the week
CPI y / y 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% (perceived as negative: further reduction could trigger a reduction in interest rates)
Retail Sales m / m 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% (taken as neutral)

But rhetoric Mark Carney at odds with reality: "The further increase the already high levels of debt is not the best one."
This means that, contrary to the words on the lowering of the Bank of England chief economist Andrew Haldane, regulator is considering raising rates. Also, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent said Friday that the likelihood of a prolonged period of falling prices in the UK is low.
According to him, the slowdown in annual inflation in the UK is largely due to falling oil prices and consumer price growth should accelerate "rather sharply" in early 2016.
The fate of the monetary policy now will decide statistics: in this plan in April rich in its quarterly values. Special attention has dynamics of growth of wages of the British.

Greece will present a new package of reforms Monday

Greece continues to concern negotiate with your creditors, this week the two sides were to meet each other: Greece will present a new draft reform to the next Monday, and the ECB, in this environment, increased emergency lending ceiling of Greek banks.

Mario Draghi said that after the launch incentive program, moods eurozone improved.
French Flash Services PMI 52.8 53.1 53.4
German Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.4 51.5 51.1
German Flash Services PMI 55.3 55.0 54.7
Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.9 51.6 51.0
Flash Services PMI 54.3 53.9 53.7

Next week, turn your attention to the annual rate of CPI Flash Estimate, too early to contemplate the consequences of European QE, but still.
Please note that on weekends Europe will translate the clock to daylight saving time, while in Europe next Friday and will do during the holidays (Good Friday).

Accents March 2015

March is well paced the fundamental expectations of the market, it is worth noting, and not to forget those events.
The minutes of the Fed has disappeared the word "patience" in relation to the terms of the rate increase, however a new interpretation, not only opens the door to a change in monetary policy, but also tightly binds the solution to inflation, which is now globally downward. Expectations of a rate hike FOMCom shifted definitively destroyed rate hike expectations in the first half of 2015.

Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25%, while its line of monetary policy remains soft.
Britain has become on the brink of deflation, the annual rate of consumer price index stood at 0%.
Bank of Canada refuses to lower interest rates again in March, his rhetoric and all signals no such need.
9 March the ECB launched a long-awaited incentive program, volume (with the purchase of other assets) to 60 billion euros a month. It is expected that the program will run until September 2016, or else until the stabilization of inflation in the eurozone.
Sweden unexpectedly lowered interest rates (interest rate was reduced from 0.1% to 0.25%.), While Norway has left its benchmark interest rate unchanged (1.25%), and all this despite the forecasts.
New Zealand at the time refuses to regulate interest rates than changing expectations and greatly enhances the NZD against the USD.
Waiting for April
Probably April starts with the resumption of talks to reduce the interest rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the meeting will take place on 7 April. In the second half of the month will be published data growth of Australian GDP of the first quarter 2015.
In April, Canada is to publish separately from its US labor market data (aka Canadian nonfram), is expected to further the use of this indicator.
China will submit quarterly GDP data, as quarterly Gross Domestic Product will also present the United Kingdom and the United States.
New Zealand is to publish quarterly inflation.
In general, expect a smooth transition between the trading period with market expectations, as described above, and acute exacerbation of publications on labor market statistics, consumer price index, as well as additional quarterly reports, which will be littered with April. Statistics three years tells us that this part of the spring period should be saturated, but the previous months makes us wonder: where else richer, so fundamental data, are already experiencing deep turns.
Also, we have prepared a gift for the upcoming holidays. Let's start with his small alpha test, which is a separate small tip will be posted in the blog Monday.
April this spring for all of us, so come with us volatility.

Hi vvFish

I have read most of the threads until now and i see that the main idea is the Vigovski's method but i can't really understand the way that you trade and where do you focus more before a trade.
Do you just use the strength indicators to catch the spike, or do you combine them with fundamentals and maybe even more technicals? because as i can see you are doing e very good work with fundamental analysis.
So if its easy, it would be very helpful to explain a little further of your trade plan.
I personally am a fundamental trader.

Tuesday
10:30
03/31/15
GB Final GDP
(GB Final GDP), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Tuesday
14:30
03/31/15
CA GDP growth GOOD
(CA GDP), Canada, USDCAD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Markets lay 70% chance the RBA rate cut.

On Monday, the winner goes the US dollar and its main opponents have their base for course defeat Canada and oil, Australia and China, the EU and Greece.
The Canadian dollar weakened against the backdrop of lower oil prices, in anticipation of the publication of quarterly GDP should exacerbate market attention. At the same time, on Monday, Stephen Poloz the Financial Times said "nasty" term impact of low oil prices on the Canadian economy. At the same time, he expressed the hope that in the medium term "independent from raw materials' sectors of the economy will benefit from lower prices and offset the rollback. Also will have positive support economic growth in the United States.
Earlier, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates in order to protect the rapidly diminished oil prices. In general, Canadians remain optimistic (according to household surveys).
Re-ignite the market rumors about the likelihood of lower interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the meeting will take place next week. Official forecasts until suggest that the interest rate will not change and will remain at 2.25%. Markets also lay the 70% probability the RBA rate cut.
J.P. Morgan suspect that Greece back into recession. Meanwhile, with the negotiation process is leaking information that the Greeks are still far from the "sufficient detail" in the draft reform.
In Fitch speak positively about the European QE.
The People's Bank of China has increased risk of deflation, it is possible further easing of monetary policy, the NSC also warns: first quarter GDP could fall below 7% abroad.