So, the risk management side of the house gets pretty easy: the further into a move, according to "distance history" a pair goes, the higher the probability of a reversal in the other direction....Yeh, like an NFP announcement that causes direction to not make sense that in reality is the beginning of a significant reversal. The "difficulty" of what I do is why I only trade a few pairs, but I've found through this work that there is plenty of ROI in just a few pairs and also hedging opportunity....just with higher margin commitment is all.. (US based broker here...no hedging and FIFO...so, I've adapted to both...while they both stink, I can still manage fine with them in place..)
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.