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  • #975,081
  • Mar 28, 2015 10:01am Mar 28, 2015 10:01am
Quoting Sants
{quote} my eyes gonna bleed for this so fibs confluences hm. this is NZDUSD H4, you noticed this pair lately? i found several harmonic as follow: 1. White lines 2. Yellow lines 3. Blue lines From those lines, what is the perfect harmonic aside from wether it is pattern or not IYO? {image}
Nicely done. But I am not sure what your question is?
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  • #975,082
  • Mar 28, 2015 10:06am Mar 28, 2015 10:06am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Nicely done. But I am not sure what your question is?
what is the most closer to perfect harmonic aside from consider it as pattern or not, Sir
as you said, harmonic frequently not coming in pattern, this is a new case for me to learn harmonic pattern heheh
  • #975,083
  • Mar 28, 2015 10:09am Mar 28, 2015 10:09am
The dollar traded exactly where I though it would on Friday coming down only to test near the last two hours at that pivot point from the pics below. I have to say I was relieved to hear Janet come out this time and state with her own mouth that normalization of rates should take place this year. She left the door open for either a July or Sept hike but here is the key sentence that made me happy to hear.
a significant pickup in incoming readings on core inflation will not be a precondition for me to judge that an initial increase in the federal funds rate would be warranted.

Now of course I was a bit surprised like some of my fellow dollar bull that the dollar did not surge but it could be attributed to the fact that there were only 10 minutes left in the market to enter orders or possibly just not wanting to establish an increasing in sizing going into the weekend. Either way I find it wonderful and reassuring as a dollar bull that the following happened this week:

1) On DXY futures we had an early week hi of 98.55 only to trade off until Thursday (London Session) an bottom out at 96.315 then we closed on Friday at 97.60 which is above 50% of the range for the week. Not to mention on Friday alone we actually closed above the top 25% of this weekly range on an hourly (London Session)\ only to complete that pattern I spoke about and can be seen below to settle lower.

2) We have a DOJI show up on WEEKLY EUR FUTURESchart. This is US session only or regular CME hours that does not include GLOBEX after hours trading. If you notice on the example chart below we had only TWO dojis since 2013-2015. If you look at the first doji in MID APRIL 2013 which saw the following two weeks trade lower to retest old lows within that channel. Now I don't personally use DOJI's for entry exit prices myself but I do understand candlestick patterns. Those who know Doji will realize that its a reversal point in a chart usually but NOT ALWAYS. Another thing to remember about Doji's is when they occur at the bottom of an uptrend range it usually is a bullish sign: examples (https://www.google.com/search?q=CHART+patterns+pinbar&biw= 1164&bih=817&source=lnms&tbm=isch&s a=X&ei=aNUWVbqDGsqcgwT8uoSIDA&ved=0 CAYQ_AUoAQ#tbm=isch&q=Bullish+uptre nd+Doji+Patterns)

But when the occur on the high of the range usually its a reversal and not a continuation movement examples (https://www.google.com/search?q=CHAR...+Doji+Patterns)

So this will be a great indication going into SUNDAY/MONDAY trading to get short EUR/USD and EUR futures provided the price action acts sluggish or weak with small burst to the upside only to be met with heavy sells to erase those moves on smaller time frames like M15 M30

3) End of quarter window dressing and rebalancing. CTA's, Hedge funds, pensions, and other major professionals find the last week on the quarter to close out or reduce size in profitable positions for reporting and window dressing for new clients and when that passes like next week we will see money redeployed for a new 1-3 cycle which could see renewed long bias in DXY and shor bias in EUR

4) ON RSI IN DXY FUTURES
*DAILY we are at 50 so not overbought or oversold like we were when dollar was at 100 which had a reading of 80 on RSI WAY OVERBOUGHT
*4hr same story at 50 RSI
SO yes the dollar trade has been crowded as still is but it's not overbought and the flush out that occured last week killed weak hands (late entries) but they will be back.

5) Fundamentals still favor US over EU. Central banks are going in opposite directions in monetary policy and Yellen out of her own mouth said we will normalize this year while QE is just starting in EU. There are some great periphery countries in the EU that don't need QE but the main concerns over there is France and this Greek hangover. Until both inflation picks up there and Greek mess gets solved via exit or new package deal bias is still short short short
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  • #975,084
  • Mar 28, 2015 10:30am Mar 28, 2015 10:30am
Quoting jplazard
The dollar traded exactly where I though it would on Friday coming down..
Thank you for your analysis, comments, and opinions jplazard! Interesting to read
Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.
  • #975,085
  • Mar 28, 2015 10:33am Mar 28, 2015 10:33am
No problem. I am a currency futures guy and trade only US session so if anyone has questions on futures I don't mind sharing. But as for London trading and Asia trading session there are far better traders than I for intraday I see on here who have great analysis as well.
  • #975,086
  • Mar 28, 2015 10:41am Mar 28, 2015 10:41am
Quoting jplazard
No problem. I am a currency futures guy and trade only US session so if anyone has questions on futures I don't mind sharing. But as for London trading and Asia trading session there are far better traders than I for intraday I see on here who have great analysis as well.
you are eu-short-guy. what level you see for the EU next week low?
i did consider the friday candle by its upperwick. the upperwick made by last train ahead of london goes home, a visit to 1.094x to make sure bear in control. quite surprise its not penetrate to where asian took price to (1.0800 - 1.0840), anw confirmation has been made and thats it )
  • #975,087
  • Mar 28, 2015 10:57am Mar 28, 2015 10:57am
really that doji hasn't the power to take previous ,its consolidation


Quoting jplazard
The dollar traded exactly where I though it would on Friday coming down only to test near the last two hours at that pivot point from the pics below. I have to say I was relieved to hear Janet come out this time and state with her own mouth that normalization of rates should take place this year. She left the door open for either a July or Sept hike but here is the key sentence that made me happy to hear. a significant pickup in incoming readings on core inflation will not be a precondition for me to judge that an initial increase in the federal...
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  • #975,088
  • Edited 11:14am Mar 28, 2015 10:59am | Edited 11:14am
up trend or downtrend or big range ,pullback possible off this in extreme oversold condition ? most fundamental traders flawed in as much as they don't know about unknown like say war ,credit meltdown
but trust me the chart knows
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  • #975,089
  • Mar 28, 2015 11:08am Mar 28, 2015 11:08am
oversold ,not that its enough but it don't stay out long normally ,and does not close out often ,humans make it end of day
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  • #975,090
  • Mar 28, 2015 11:25am Mar 28, 2015 11:25am
Quoting Bones
really that doji hasn't the power to take previous ,its consolidation {quote}
How is that consolidation? that is indecision as neither bull nor bear could move the market end of week. Its one thing to have a doji on a 1hr which is less relevant but to have it on a weekly close that is very telling. If you look here you can see that this is an evening star Doji at its clearest form. Which usually brings a bearish candle stick the following week. Now if the EUR/USD or EUR futures traded near the lows of last week to finish off Doji at the bottom of this range then yes I would say 100% this is bullish given those occur in continuation patterns send EUR/USD higher into next month. Just read this summary which is the author is one of the foremost authorities on chart patterns and has backtested results to show statistically how often certain patterns play out
http://thepatternsite.com/EveningDojiStar.html

And you talk about RSI or the EUR/USD being oversold this is inaccurate also.
On RSI 70/30 on a Daily chart we are at 48.84 which is near neutral and not oversold until it gets again back to 30-25 level
On RIS 70/30 4hr we are at 49.13 NEUTRAL
and on 1HR we are at 47.74 NEUTRAL
anything less than 1hr on overbought/oversold is just noise and does not define trends on a weekly or quarterly basis.
  • #975,091
  • Mar 28, 2015 11:26am Mar 28, 2015 11:26am
Quoting Sants
{quote} what is the most closer to perfect harmonic aside from consider it as pattern or not, Sir as you said, harmonic frequently not coming in pattern, this is a new case for me to learn harmonic pattern heheh
Well Sir, you have done a fine job. I would say AU is better case lately.

But I was waiting a little higher. Could have made case for 1.13 based on daily but didn't take it. Thanks for bringing it up.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #975,092
  • Mar 28, 2015 11:31am Mar 28, 2015 11:31am
Hi J ,I'm happy to discuss that candle next week with you ,evening star is 3 candle ,I'm saying straight to you
you wont see it , (depending on Sunday open is that candle closed ? )
I don't know about RSI on boll 6 month its oversold ,even monthly

Quoting jplazard
{quote} How is that consolidation? that is indecision as neither bull nor bear could move the market end of week. Its one thing to have a doji on a 1hr which is less relevant but to have it on a weekly close that is very telling. If you look here you can see that this is an evening star Doji at its clearest form. Which usually brings a bearish candle stick the following week. Now if the EUR/USD or EUR futures traded near the lows of last week to finish off Doji at the bottom of this range then yes I would say 100% this is bullish given those occur...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #975,093
  • Mar 28, 2015 11:36am Mar 28, 2015 11:36am
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} you noticed it too?, yes as i said a day ago, it's only some 940-945 game... {image}
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} we are still not at GP 828...so the hell will wait a little...as i heard from some guys, the Forex tyran has entered another care bear mode, better to be safe... {image}
the S2 806 & the 945 game were both clear on M30...on H4 as you all see the old GP828-29 was only the Mid of S1 852 and S2 806, nothing wrong to have some offers at S2...as i heard yesterday some guys just overestimated the 850.
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  • #975,094
  • Mar 28, 2015 11:37am Mar 28, 2015 11:37am
I am short this pair since 12/21. I added to that short on 2/26. Looking for a 4 week high to get out of half and a ten week high to get out of the rest. No idea how much further the highs will go before getting struck.

-Adrian
  • #975,095
  • Mar 28, 2015 11:40am Mar 28, 2015 11:40am
Hi MS ,I agree risky assets are bearish ,

Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Well Sir, you have done a fine job. I would say AU is better case lately. But I was waiting a little higher. Could have made case for 1.13 based on daily but didn't take it. Thanks for bringing it up. {image}
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  • #975,096
  • Edited 12:07pm Mar 28, 2015 11:51am | Edited 12:07pm
Also RARELY do marekts in major uptrend or downtrends just have one bottom and reverse. They usually experience at minimum a double bottom simple case being recently we thought OIL bottomed but has since retested and violated old lows to now trade higher which could be a double bottom. Those who believe THIS IS THE BOTTOM IN EUR are clearly looking to a 1 wk or 2 wk movement to declare that a turn has occured. Professional traders and managers usually will wait for at minimum of a positive reversal trend on a QUARTERLY basis before plunging and shifting bias. The EUR has only been up two weeks and most of this move was driven by one day when Yellen last week misspoke and dollar bulls got scared for a few days.

Also if you pull up EUR FUTURES we VIOLATED on a 4H that uptrend you posted and closed below before popping back up to stay within it. That may sound reassuring but the dollar did the same thing on Friday to settle a few ticks below its downward trend line.

Now you may be a scalper or swing trader who looks for 50-100 ticks but this market in EUR is going lower on a quarterly basis. On EUR futures you will notice there is a gap that needs to fill which is exactly near the major trend line in EUR where it recently broke out of and most likely will test to ensure a bottom. Also the white rectangles are completion points from a 4H ABCD pattern.

On futures all we need to do is close below 1.0820 on a Daily or 4HR and we will first hit 1.0740-1.07 then on a more extreme move next week (not really expecting) we hit 1.0670

I have posted both US CME trading charts and GLOBEX 24 trading charts and you can see the following

A) On EUR FUTURES we have broken that major downtrend which is fine but this brings us back to the point its rare for a market to have one bottom they usually test lows again before a complete reversal. And that MAJOR LINE just happens to be right at the gap fill point

B) from January to the end of March EDIT (END OF FEB SRY) we had a consolidation in EUR that everyone can agree on before another leg lower. A simple Fib from the start of the leg lower to where EUR bottomed out at shows this week we traded all the way up to 61.8% and failed spectacular by dropping like a stone. Now if we violate 1.0820 the movement to 1.0740 is assured.

C) On dollar in Globex 24hr trading chart you can see we violated the downward trend since it topped out at 100 and some change ON FRIDAY. So that is a bullish sign given the market did not sell off again to Yellens words and we are near the breakout zone higher in DXY and near major support on EUR

You might be biased on the long side in EUR/USD and that is cool we need to have a market of buyers and sellers for volatility but unfortunately we are still smack dab in the middle of a multi year cycle higher in dollar which won't stop until monetary authorities take action like they did years ago through coordinated intervention. We are not even in the jawbone and talk down the dollar phase which comes later this year.
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  • #975,097
  • Mar 28, 2015 11:58am Mar 28, 2015 11:58am
usdx this channel is in danger ,if were going back up to high my guess is later not next week
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  • #975,098
  • Mar 28, 2015 11:59am Mar 28, 2015 11:59am
Quoting Bones
Hi J ,I'm happy to discuss that candle next week with you ,evening star is 3 candle ,I'm saying straight to you you wont see it , (depending on Sunday open is that candle closed ? ) I don't know about RSI on boll 6 month its oversold ,even monthly {quote}

Yes that candle is closed. That chart is CME hours which don't factor in London and Asia session. Now If you pull up just a normal EUR futures Globex chart the weekly is a pinbar almost and is not bullish nor bearish. I pull up both US and Globex charts because US session usually fills certain gaps and trade zones.

I look forward to talking end of week next week. Happy trading.
  • #975,099
  • Mar 28, 2015 12:08pm Mar 28, 2015 12:08pm
prefer lfx charts for general view ,gaps in charts bother me
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  • #975,100
  • Mar 28, 2015 12:15pm Mar 28, 2015 12:15pm
cool me too ,if im wrong ill still be here ,lol
food for thought about evening star being a top pattern ,and previous ,bearish candle strong close ,gap up ,bullish open ,piercing line ,large range
that's why I say consolidation next ,its a trick ,to leave all possibilities open ,anyway that's why I say this

Quoting jplazard
{quote} Yes that candle is closed. That chart is CME hours which don't factor in London and Asia session. Now If you pull up just a normal EUR futures Globex chart the weekly is a pinbar almost and is not bullish nor bearish. I pull up both US and Globex charts because US session usually fills certain gaps and trade zones. I look forward to talking end of week next week. Happy trading.
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