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  • #974,221
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:16am Mar 26, 2015 9:16am
.089 bounce or break?

I think small bounce then it will break later.
  • #974,222
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:16am Mar 26, 2015 9:16am
I agree with SISSE's point regarding a risk event where dollar could benefit in the short term. As for PA today Eur overnight broke above the Wed US session high only to come back down into the zone and then fall below.

The dollar broke below in London as well only to trade and test yesterday's US session low before shooting higher. It is now trading above US session hi's which is a great indicator but it's still early in the day. If It closes above yesterday's US session Hi and GDP is better than forecast it looks like next week we can enjoy a possible continuation in the dollar. This would make sense as EUR is overbought in H4

If it trades back in the range though we could see another choppy US sesion for EUR/USD
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  • #974,223
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:17am Mar 26, 2015 9:17am
Quoting Vorex
Do people believe fxtyrant still has his position open even though it went down 231 pips? I think in his real account he closed it long time ago. And suppose the price does go down to 1.0650 does that mean he wins? does that mean we should have followed him? it's clear he was wrong with that entry & should have exited long time ago (if he hasn't done so already), I like the guy, I follow him but there is nothing wrong with being wrong, you can't always win, even sisse makes mistakes, we learn more from our mistakes.
I like him, and I like to josh him too. He seems like that type of joker, it is the internet afterall.

And no you should not have followed him, if it does go down to .06 he still froze the accounts equity for quite a long time. It might make it down there, but just look at the monthly! too dangerous holding shorts in the red at a possible 2 year LOW! how long can it go down, 3 years really?! not much longer, If it would reverse, it would be starting now and april!
But on a further crash he would be well in the money so its worth the risk depending on your strategy.
  • #974,224
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:18am Mar 26, 2015 9:18am
bought eu 0923 risking 20 lets see
also bought EURCAD 3633
  • #974,225
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:21am Mar 26, 2015 9:21am
Quoting Vorex
Do people believe fxtyrant still has his position open even though it went down 231 pips? I think in his real account he closed it long time ago. And suppose the price does go down to 1.0650 does that mean he wins? does that mean we should have followed him? it's clear he was wrong with that entry & should have exited long time ago (if he hasn't done so already), I like the guy, I follow him but there is nothing wrong with being wrong, you can't always win, even sisse makes mistakes, we learn more from our mistakes.
Its still open
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #974,226
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:22am Mar 26, 2015 9:22am
damn that bear!

http://www.sdbirder.com/Animals/Sun-...28_4Fb6b-L.jpg
  • #974,227
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:24am Mar 26, 2015 9:24am
Quoting Vorex
Do people believe fxtyrant still has his position open even though it went down 231 pips? I think in his real account he closed it long time ago. And suppose the price does go down to 1.0650 does that mean he wins? does that mean we should have followed him? it's clear he was wrong with that entry & should have exited long time ago (if he hasn't done so already), I like the guy, I follow him but there is nothing wrong with being wrong, you can't always win, even sisse makes mistakes, we learn more from our mistakes.

The fact is a red position of 231 pips for a scalper is a margin call about 3 times over, but for a swinger it is normal. The reality is 230 pips once a market starts to accumulate will almost certainly turn into 500-800 pip loss. I believe if swingers, and scalpers a like aim for accuracy then you would never allow such a high PIP-DRAWDOWN. Which leads to Pip-drawdown to Drawdown %.... Which is important. I would say PIP-DRAWDOWN is more important, because it is what is used to calculate your DRAWDOWN %
5% a day keeps the 9 to 5 away.
  • #974,228
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:24am Mar 26, 2015 9:24am
Quoting Vorex
Do people believe fxtyrant still has his position open even though it went down 231 pips? I think in his real account he closed it long time ago. And suppose the price does go down to 1.0650 does that mean he wins? does that mean we should have followed him? it's clear he was wrong with that entry & should have exited long time ago (if he hasn't done so already), I like the guy, I follow him but there is nothing wrong with being wrong, you can't always win, even sisse makes mistakes, we learn more from our mistakes.

I can't speak for FX but when I was on a desk we usually had a 1-3 month trade horizon. If you had losing positions or worse yet a position that did nothing you usually cut it fast to redeploy. The reason being is you're graded and bonuses are assessed on your annual commission netted for the firm and on the prop side you're return on capital for the bank. If he runs a family office I am not sure if he is paid quarterly on profits with a fixed AUM annually to cover costs as I don't know his structure but usually a family office incorporates multiple asset classes where FX could be maybe 5% or less of his entire book. So the unrealized losses here are more than made up for in other asset classes where he is sitting fine at the moment. Not sure if he is an all FX fund or a multi-strategy fund. Anyway, this could be a small portion of his book who is to say.
  • #974,229
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:24am Mar 26, 2015 9:24am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if u cant close 0998 and 0942... u shouldn't be there.
Yep....Watching the half and qtr levels....
  • #974,230
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:25am Mar 26, 2015 9:25am
Quoting jplazard
{quote} I can't speak for FX but when I was on a desk we usually had a 1-3 month trade horizon. If you had losing positions or worse yet a position that did nothing you usually cut it fast to redeploy. The reason being is you're graded and bonuses are assessed on your annual commission netted for the firm and on the prop side you're return on capital for the bank. If he runs a family office I am not sure if he is paid quarterly on profits with a fixed AUM annually to cover costs as I don't know his structure but usually a family office incorporates...
Well said... Finally someone with some smarts
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #974,231
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:26am Mar 26, 2015 9:26am
Quoting Magicmen
Pending short @1038
Closed 0916
  • #974,232
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:29am Mar 26, 2015 9:29am
Quoting ptyforex
{quote} The fact is a red position of 231 pips for a scalper is a margin call about 3 times over, but for a swinger it is normal. The reality is 230 pips once a market starts to accumulate will almost certainly turn into 500-800 pip loss. I believe if swingers, and scalpers a like aim for accuracy then you would never allow such a high PIP-DRAWDOWN. Which leads to Pip-drawdown to Drawdown %.... Which is important. I would say PIP-DRAWDOWN is more important, because it is what is used to calculate your DRAWDOWN %
as swing trader, I would take -100 pip draw down EXCEPT on a USD based currency pair....that is the main risk, its the USD! It is manipulated hard, the global oil currency and too volitile when starting a consolidation or breaking a line.
  • #974,233
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:29am Mar 26, 2015 9:29am
Imo it's still bullish PA until a break/close below 1.089x, would have like a little higher before the drop however. A touch (or close enough to) of the (4hr) 200ma will usually bring in a reaction especially after such a correction.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #974,234
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:29am Mar 26, 2015 9:29am
Quoting vorex
do people believe fxtyrant still has his position open even though it went down 231 pips? yes i think in his real account he closed it long time ago. And suppose the price does go down to 1.0650 does that mean he wins? yes does that mean we should have followed him? yes it's clear he was wrong with that entry & should have exited long time ago (if he hasn't done so already), i like the guy, i follow him...
where's the mistake? A matter of time?
  • #974,235
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:29am Mar 26, 2015 9:29am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Well said... Finally someone with some smarts
Yep his words ring true to me.
  • #974,236
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:30am Mar 26, 2015 9:30am
I also remember FXTyrant a few years ago. we used to josh DaddyBear together constantly for his weird quips and drawings that made no sense. lol
  • #974,237
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:30am Mar 26, 2015 9:30am
Quoting MikiFX
{quote} where's the mistake? A matter of time?
1-2 weeks frozen account equity with a possible large loss in the end , when profit could have been made on other pairs is the mistake. Now does that matter because he trades many other things besides FX, maybe. Also its not a huge deal, his account is large but "some" people could classify it as a mistake, some strategy.
  • #974,238
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:32am Mar 26, 2015 9:32am
Quoting Vorex
Do people believe fxtyrant still has his position open even though it went down 231 pips? I think in his real account he closed it long time ago. And suppose the price does go down to 1.0650 does that mean he wins? does that mean we should have followed him? it's clear he was wrong with that entry & should have exited long time ago (if he hasn't done so already), I like the guy, I follow him but there is nothing wrong with being wrong, you can't always win, even sisse makes mistakes, we learn more from our mistakes.

Vorex... you cant just arrive into the forex scene and hope the person you will follow will lead you to fortune...or maybe ruin.. Fxtyrant trades for a living.. as I do.. He has a lot of history of what works and what doesn't. If he is comfortable with an open trade, as he does not use stops he will not be spiked out.. He has a risk of 100% of his bank ..considering where the market would need to go to put him in a margin call.. That said most people should use stops, as mentally closing a trade in loss is not for everyone.. If you had 1c at risk per pip on a trade and you where 400 pips wrong you would be down $4... mentally no trader would care... The point is and obviously I could be wrong, fxtyrant maybe looking at the trade as if 1c per pip...no mental stress as his edge wins a lot of the time... (I dont mean he has 1c per pip in play) I hope this blurb helped...
  • #974,239
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:33am Mar 26, 2015 9:33am
Looks like this thread transforming from EURUSD to FXTYRANT gossip
  • #974,240
  • Mar 26, 2015 9:34am Mar 26, 2015 9:34am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Its still open
Good luck with that, I want it to go down to 1.065 too.
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