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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #7,901
  • Mar 25, 2015 6:06pm Mar 25, 2015 6:06pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} Hchste Tagesverluste[Bearbeiten] Die Tabelle zeigt die hchsten Tagesverluste des bis 1959 zurckgerechneten DAX.[34] RangDatumSchlussstand in PunktenVernderung in PunktenVernderung in % 116. Okt. 19891.385,72−203,62−12,81 219. Aug. 19911.497,93−155,44−9,40 319. Okt. 19871.321,61−136,94−9,39 411. Sep. 20014.273,53−396,60−8,49 528. Okt. 19973.567,22−311,90−8,04...
Wish I knew what this meant,,, haha Pour me a glass of that Merlot, will ya?
  • #7,902
  • Mar 25, 2015 6:14pm Mar 25, 2015 6:14pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Wish I knew what this meant,,, haha Pour me a glass of that Merlot, will ya?
will do so "beam"

greatest daily dax losses in percent, so from -12,81% to -7,01%. that daily loss of today is nothing exceptional, thatīs what i wanted to say.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,903
  • Mar 25, 2015 6:18pm Mar 25, 2015 6:18pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} will do so "beam" greatest daily dax losses in percent, so from -12,81% to -7,01%. that daily loss of today is nothing exceptional, thats what i wanted to say.
Oh I'm well aware.... just got stung on some longs on the dow is all. Makes it seem bigger than it is Just wait till 2016 and beyond for a few years.... we're gonna be seeing red all over the place.
  • #7,904
  • Mar 25, 2015 6:24pm Mar 25, 2015 6:24pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Oh I'm well aware.... just got stung on some longs on the dow is all. Makes it seem bigger than it is Just wait till 2016 and beyond for a few years.... we're gonna be seeing red all over the place.
hopefully youīre right. sitting on a mount of cash, waiting to buy for 10 years+...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,905
  • Mar 25, 2015 6:46pm Mar 25, 2015 6:46pm
That's the dream of every trader in this world, how a dream it'd be to catch a decade bottom with a high volume and just sit.. and watch the world burn. ;p
  • #7,906
  • Mar 25, 2015 6:55pm Mar 25, 2015 6:55pm
Like it D1, good job on the stats
Corripe Cervisiam!
  • #7,907
  • Mar 25, 2015 7:01pm Mar 25, 2015 7:01pm
Quoting ThePolarFox
That's the dream of every trader in this world, how a dream it'd be to catch a decade bottom with a high volume and just sit.. and watch the world burn. ;p
at least i catched the last bottom (8400). but as a coward i am, i only took a first portion
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,908
  • Mar 25, 2015 7:03pm Mar 25, 2015 7:03pm
Quoting paddlepip
Like it D1, good job on the stats
Inserted Video
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,909
  • Mar 25, 2015 9:26pm Mar 25, 2015 9:26pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XKFoF8jWgE
Nikkei finally correcting a drop... you never trade it?
  • #7,910
  • Mar 26, 2015 12:49am Mar 26, 2015 12:49am
What we are seeing in US Equities is possibly a re-allocation of funds from risk-on investments (stocks) to risk-off (pending rate hikes - fixed income).

Below are examples of what happened to SP during periods of rate hikes. You will notice that the US Equities became choppy but they still went up over time:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SP...d=p17832984723
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SP...d=p08954335520
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SP...d=p75582346317

This is what you would expect during Fed rate hike phases -> remember rate hikes are simply brakes for an overheating economy and/or inflationary pressure. Neither of those have really happened in the US, so I expect these rate hikes may be delayed a little, but the overall market should continue to rise with some volatility during these initial rate hikes.

My longer term analysis suggests US Equities will correct in 2016, this will affect European Equities to the downside, but I think the impact will be less pronounced in Europe due to low/negative central bank rates and QE.
  • #7,911
  • Mar 26, 2015 1:33am Mar 26, 2015 1:33am
Dax has broken its strong trend channel since start of this year.

I now expect a retracement in excess of 400 points.

400 points seemed to be the repeating retracement range in this trend channel.

Possibly a retracement to 11,546 could be on the cards (23.6%) if US Equities continues to falter.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,912
  • Mar 26, 2015 2:06am Mar 26, 2015 2:06am
good morning
Whatever the mind can conceive, the mind can believe, the mind can achieve.
  • #7,913
  • Mar 26, 2015 2:09am Mar 26, 2015 2:09am
bad morning
  • #7,914
  • Mar 26, 2015 2:13am Mar 26, 2015 2:13am
good morning,

buy the dip -> bought dax etf @11.725, tp +200, no sl

letīs see where it will find a bottom. chart looks bearish on higher time frames.

r3 12.164,9
r2 12.093,1
r1 11.977,1
p 11.906,3
s1 11.790,3
s2 11.719,5
s3 11.603,5

xetra close: 11.865,32

good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,915
  • Mar 26, 2015 2:17am Mar 26, 2015 2:17am
Let's see how daxie digests this.... looking oversold and ready to bounce, but gotta be patient for right entries here
  • #7,916
  • Mar 26, 2015 2:23am Mar 26, 2015 2:23am
Quoting smogser
{quote} Charts look pretty much the same with the two of us)) But I don't see you buy stop entrance @11906, you may kill me/
How about this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,917
  • Mar 26, 2015 2:30am Mar 26, 2015 2:30am
11600 possible later if 754 doesn't support, but looks like it will soon
  • #7,918
  • Mar 26, 2015 2:44am Mar 26, 2015 2:44am
Quoting Ck87
Let's see how daxie digests this.... looking oversold and ready to bounce, but gotta be patient for right entries here
I don't think Dax is oversold on Avg PE ratio, given its 16.2 (@11,730pts).

Dax is still much cheaper than US Equities (SP @ Avg PE ratio of 19.4).
  • #7,919
  • Mar 26, 2015 2:46am Mar 26, 2015 2:46am
Quoting medici
{quote} How about this? {image}
Morning, this looks much better. The only doubt is that entering with buy stop here stipulates no significant level's break out.

Apart from that, if my today's planned long @11680 doesn't work out with at least 450 points of return, I don't know how to trade further)))
  • #7,920
  • Mar 26, 2015 2:50am Mar 26, 2015 2:50am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I don't think Dax is oversold on Avg PE ratio, given its 16.2 (@11,730pts). Dax is still much cheaper than US Equities (SP @ Avg PE ratio of 19.4).
I just meant intraday.....
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