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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #7,741
  • Edited 5:28am Mar 25, 2015 5:18am | Edited 5:28am
Btw, SaP trying to break 2095. +- very strong resist. May go poof up soon.

Edit: :/ 77 stops cut. Was bad to be so close..77 reloaded with all stops below doji at 71.

....These ExHighs are pretty important in my SaP chart. Should they break its gonna go poof... but also this chart on decision to send to Daxie 11950, should it hold.

..Edit: Yy, cut again. Bad stops today, am impatient, so prolly need a break . Be back.
..Edit: Oh, perhaps not bad stops in the end. 11950 come to daddy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SaP.JPG Size: 53 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,742
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:19am Mar 25, 2015 5:19am
remember guys, that getting frustrated because the market doesn't give you what you want is like hurling rocks at the tide because it's coming in when you want it to go out. It's going to do what it's going to do, and you can bash your head against the wall as hard as you like but nothing's going to change that. We must learn to take what the market will give us, not what we want from it.
  • #7,743
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:20am Mar 25, 2015 5:20am
Quoting deltaone
... and bought some binaries (30,4): dax to close >12.005,7. payout 100/0
lately trading IG's sprinters on EU/DAX and DOW, although most say guaranty to lose your money, until now (some 20 trading days) its running beautiful but I guess you need to control the psychological aspects very well.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #7,744
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:21am Mar 25, 2015 5:21am
Quoting smogser
{quote} I'm fed up with binaries, lost some 5K a couple of years ago. This is a "no way to win" game. Posted my reasoning in a relevant thread.
watched your post. your main point is the bad rrr i think (losing 100, getting 80). that bo i bought is not like this: iīve bought it @30,4. if xetra close is >= 12.005,7, payout will be 100. 100/30,4=3,289. also, itīs not possible for my broker to manipulate xetra close. twt...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,745
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:21am Mar 25, 2015 5:21am
Quoting cat
remember guys, that getting frustrated because the market doesn't give you what you want is like hurling rocks at the tide because it's coming in when you want it to go out. It's going to do what it's going to do, and you can bash your head against the wall as hard as you like but nothing's going to change that. We must learn to take what the market will give us, not what we want from it.
Truth and in my experience it is self destructive and only leads to bad things. Must clear the mind and be at ease.
  • #7,746
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:27am Mar 25, 2015 5:27am
Quoting medici
{quote} Very much a win game in my experience, but the problem is that it's tricky to hedge binaries, and most brokers count on you losing rather than hedge your bets. As to win game, for delta strategies you might as well use spot or regular options, but vega and theta based strategies work really well.
Binary options are not actually options, it is just a misnomer of gambling with a very bad RR ratio (much worse than in a casino). And ofc they have nothing to do with vega, theta and delta, which would be used to describe regular options. In fact here we are not bying or selling anything, but rather making bets on where the price is likely to find itself. But in our case we have a full control over our losses vs gains, and what's more important, our bets are not time-based, as is the case with binaries. You can never tell at what particular time the price is gonna cross some level or stay above/below it.
  • #7,747
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:28am Mar 25, 2015 5:28am
Quoting smogser
{quote} Binary options are not actually options, it is just a misnomer of gambling with a very bad RR ratio (much worse than in a casino). And ofc they have nothing to do with vega, theta and delta, which would be used to describe regular options. In fact here we are not bying or selling anything, but rather making bets on where the price is likely to find itself. But in our case we have a full control over our losses vs gains, and what's more important, our bets are not time-based, as is the case with binaries. You can never tell at what particular...
May I politely point out that you are wrong. Have you read Taleb's "Dynamic Hedging"?
  • #7,748
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:32am Mar 25, 2015 5:32am
Quoting smogser
{quote} Binary options are not actually options, it is just a misnomer of gambling with a very bad RR ratio (much worse than in a casino). And ofc they have nothing to do with vega, theta and delta, which would be used to describe regular options. In fact here we are not bying or selling anything, but rather making bets on where the price is likely to find itself. But in our case we have a full control over our losses vs gains, and what's more important, our bets are not time-based, as is the case with binaries. You can never tell at what particular...
Some seem to do well with them... if you have a specific set up that gives you a win rate of more than 60% , and are selective in the contracts you choose (not much juice) .. then it can be very profitable.
  • #7,749
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:33am Mar 25, 2015 5:33am
Quoting smogser
{quote} Binary options are not actually options, it is just a misnomer of gambling with a very bad RR ratio (much worse than in a casino). And ofc they have nothing to do with vega, theta and delta, which would be used to describe regular options. In fact here we are not bying or selling anything, but rather making bets on where the price is likely to find itself. But in our case we have a full control over our losses vs gains, and what's more important, our bets are not time-based, as is the case with binaries. You can never tell at what particular...
show me a casino where i can bet on red or black with getting 3, riskiing 1. i will be there, gambling all day long
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,750
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:34am Mar 25, 2015 5:34am
Mandatory TA reload @ daily Doji again + Stoch combo + sap Wave combo - forming CupNHandle below S. Daxie gonna test 82. Keeping it megatight with 69 stops. gonna BE soon.

Yy, screw intrahour TA.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,751
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:36am Mar 25, 2015 5:36am
Quoting medici
{quote} May I politely point out that you are wrong. Have you read Taleb's "Dynamic Hedging"?
I read Taleb's two other great books. I know he's doing options, but what I'm telling here is that there are binary "options" and there are ptions.
  • #7,752
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:37am Mar 25, 2015 5:37am
Will see what H4 bring....
RevarK
  • #7,753
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:41am Mar 25, 2015 5:41am
This is gonna be megahit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mega.JPG Size: 135 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,754
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:42am Mar 25, 2015 5:42am
something is wrong with me .. i go long market goes down .. i go short market goes up
  • #7,755
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:43am Mar 25, 2015 5:43am
Quoting smogser
{quote} I read Taleb's two other great books. I know he's doing options, but what I'm telling here is that there are binary "options" and there are ptions.
"Dynamic Hedging" is, among other things, about the institutional perspective on hedging binary options. Also, he opines that trading binaries is excellent training for a developing trader, and I would agree.

His popular books I didn't appreciate at all, for more than one reason.
  • #7,756
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:43am Mar 25, 2015 5:43am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} show me a casino where i can bet on red or black with getting 3, riskiing 1. i will be there, gambling all day long
Usually, the most you can get from BO is 85% (figures differ from broker to broker) on you investment (and that's when you trade "long term" BO). A casino's advantage is around 3%, which is way better. Some BO operators would give you a ratio of 2:1 or even 3:1 (as in your case) for a very very unprobable outcome.
  • #7,757
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:44am Mar 25, 2015 5:44am
long @11.957,5 sl -10 tp +30
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,758
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:45am Mar 25, 2015 5:45am
Quoting deltaone
long @11.957,5 sl -10 tp +30
57 nice!
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,759
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:46am Mar 25, 2015 5:46am
Quoting smogser
{quote} Usually, the most you can get from BO is 85% (figers differ from broker to broker) on you investment (and that's when you trade "long term" BO). A casino's advantage is around 3%, which is way better. Some BO operators would give you a ratio of 2:1 or even 3:1 (as in your case) for a very very unprobable outcome.
How about getting 30% with a win rate close to 100%? That's how I used to do it, but then you need to know your thetas and vegas.
  • #7,760
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:47am Mar 25, 2015 5:47am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
This is gonna be megahit {image}
looks tempting, but why not wait for a bit of confirmation and us-correlation?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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