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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #321
  • Mar 20, 2015 8:30am Mar 20, 2015 8:30am
Return loss must be fast.
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #322
  • Mar 20, 2015 11:36am Mar 20, 2015 11:36am
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  • #323
  • Mar 20, 2015 11:45am Mar 20, 2015 11:45am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Three unexpected events of the week that are worth noting.

We continue to splash in the waves of the monetary changes of central banks, at the beginning of the year, we went into the "one" water, but a little further from the shore of its state changes, and any changes for us - it is positive in terms of the volatility in the markets of course. After all, we surf on the stock, and the season is open, and its onset is moving rapidly enough. Talk, as planned and not planned surprises outgoing week: the Fed, the Bank of England, the Riksbank, NOK ...

The Bank of England published the minutes of the meeting
Against the background of the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, remained completely unnoticed by the results of the Bank of England, which published its minutes this week.

According to the protocol the central bank is still concerned about the level of inflation is below the benchmark, and it is almost the main reason that interest rates are 9 and 9 members of the Monetary Committee left unchanged at 0.5%.

Imbalance between the economic prospects of the UK and the EU can also trigger the growth of sterling that in the fight against falling inflation is unacceptable. It seems that in the inflationary issues high rate of GBP really excited Mark Carney, as previously such statements from him have been received.

The Bank also noted, and the factor that in order to achieve the inflation target, a more rapid growth of wages at the same time, the amount of spare capacity in the labor market - a moot point. Parallel fresh labor market statistics tells us to reduce the amount of wages from 2.1% the previous period to 1.8% of the current.

FOMC Fed refuses to raise rates without a corresponding inflation.

Fed revised the size of the average rates at the end of 2015 with 1.125% to 0.625%. 5 of 17 executives forecast first Fed rate hike in 2015, two - in 2016. The proposal with the phrase "be patient" was replaced with "sufficient certainty" that with the analysis of the full context of the Protocol may be considered, if not softer, so just "no more the same." Held a press conference Janet Yellen adds no less water on the fire of expectations, which erupted from the fire gradually turn into smoke.

The Fed acknowledged that in addition to the growth of the labor market for a rate hike is mandatory condition of normalization of inflation that now, as you already know, the "global" enough "not soon" process.
Dollar particularly carefully continue to monitor the indication of the labor market and the consumer price index.

Scandinavians played an unexpected combination
Swedes, "following the example of Switzerland," all of a sudden, without planning schedule, reduced the interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%. This was unexpected on the one hand, but taken after the start of the European QE, granted.
The same step was expected and from Norway, the Central Bank meeting which took place one day later. But here we had a surprise: Norges Bank refused (contrary to predictions) to reduce the interest rate, and left it at 1.25%.
"There are prospects for reducing the discount rate" - said the head of the Bank of Norway Olsen, mainly to support the economy of Norway to the decrease in oil prices.

Australia ready for the next step of monetary easing.
In March, the Reserve Bank of Australia considered it expedient to leave interest rates unchanged ... but that's just "yet".
According to published this Tuesday protocols RBA recognizes that there may be arguments in favor of further rate cuts. And in spite of 0.76 in AUDUSD, a lower Australian dollar will help to achieve balanced economic growth, its rate is still too high central bank believes.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #324
  • Mar 21, 2015 10:15am Mar 21, 2015 10:15am
Tuesday
3:45
03/24/15
CN manufacturing PMI index
(CN HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI), China, AUDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Tuesday
10:30
03/24/15
EU manufacturing PMI index Germany
(EU German Flash Manufacturing PMI), the EU, EURUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Tuesday
11:30
03/24/15
GB Consumer Price Index GOOD
(GB CPI), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Tuesday
14:30
03/24/15
The core US consumer price index
(US Core CPI), the United States, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #325
  • Mar 21, 2015 10:17am Mar 21, 2015 10:17am
Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #326
  • Mar 23, 2015 1:27am Mar 23, 2015 1:27am
Good morning vvFish,

I have been studied your charts and I tried to understand how to trade with CC indicator and how it works. Could you explain how do you use it? I want to know when do you take the decision to buy or sell at news time because sometimes the CC chart moves in the opposite site seconds before the news... Do you check the CC indicator 1 minute before the news? 30 seconds? 5 seconds?

Thank you in advance and good luck!
  • #327
  • Mar 23, 2015 6:07am Mar 23, 2015 6:07am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #328
  • Edited 7:53pm Mar 23, 2015 7:43pm | Edited 7:53pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

CN manufacturing PMI index
CN HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI


On the one hand, prior to the sale, we clearly weakened the dollar, on the other - the RBA is considering options, opportunities and the need to reduce interest rates - some analysts believe that such a decline could happen as early as April.
China is now under scrutiny pessimists, and mark it "slowing down" of the current period even got into some protocols "advanced" countries. We are very mindful that the export-oriented Australia depends on the performance of the Chinese "big client" that the impurity with lower prices for iron ore makes the script to break through the lower trigger more pleasing to the eye ... if only the dollar did not sneeze.
Good indicator maneuvers near the limit value in the "50" that psychologically add volatility from bidders,
but beware, here you can experience all the "charms ocean" releases.


EU manufacturing PMI index Germany
EU German Flash Manufacturing PMI

On Monday, quite optimistic made Mario Draghi, who believes that the euro zone economic growth is gaining momentum. In this regulator expects low (or even negative) rate of inflation in the coming months, but with its subsequent recovery by the end of 2015. Crutch, of course, stands program QE, which started on March 9.
According to the rhetoric, the ECB will continue to buy assets until at least September 2016 (which is already known to the market).
Not without the "Greek problem": Draghi dismissed charges of blackmail Greece "ECB - Institute based on the rules we do not create rules for Greece." Recall that last month the ECB refused to pledge government bonds of Greece.
A feature of this publication is the data packet: DE PMI Manufacturing and DE PMI Services, both must be taken to attention, both can affect the quotes.

GB Consumer Price Index
GB SPI

Most British CPI starts to disturb the markets closer to the level of 2%, which the Bank of England considers it appropriate to do so without the interest rate will not be increased and market expectations in this respect will be cold.
Forecast of 0.1% for annual CPI looks quite extraordinary, as have a chance at all to see deflation in the UK. Deflation - this is the process that will cut the ground from under the feet of Mark Carney and cause the Bank to move. Rumor has it that in the event of deflation, the Bank of England (quite seriously) can reduce the interest rate ...
Mark Carney said earlier that the period of low inflation will prevail this year, the zero level is quite possible, and the Bank of England predicts a return to the targeted level in the next two years.
Expectations, as we see, quite transparent, most likely markets may be ready for such an eventuality, when the fact of the annual value arrive at 0% -0.1% and -0.2% scenario deviations, perhaps the most sweet heart.


The core US consumer price index
US Core SPI

Before you raise the interest rate the Fed should make sure that inflation is on the way to the 2% limit: this phrase and dumped the dollar in the first second after the publication of the FOMC minutes last Wednesday.
And judging by the dynamics of inflationary pressures - the growth rate might not be soon, at least not in this June, as previously thought. The consequences of such "soft" protocol and "soft" press conference Janet Yellen and put pressure on the dollar earlier this week.
On the publication of one of the pivot players Fed (in addition to the labor market) - the consumer price index to decline further postpone the dates on interest rate expectations, but that's just the trouble is that despite the increase in attention to his person, the light is projected perfectly, and the deviation +/- 0.1, which often flashed before my eyes - enough to become familiar.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #329
  • Mar 24, 2015 3:05am Mar 24, 2015 3:05am
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  • #330
  • Mar 24, 2015 3:39am Mar 24, 2015 3:39am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #331
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:50am Mar 24, 2015 4:50am
Return loss is required.
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  • #332
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:54am Mar 24, 2015 4:54am
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  • #333
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:51pm Mar 24, 2015 4:51pm
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  • #334
  • Mar 24, 2015 5:03pm Mar 24, 2015 5:03pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Analysts have 14% chance of a Fed rate hike this summer.

Tuesday met expectations fundamental saturation in our hands a package of important data for the US, EU and Australia / China. USD remained under pressure, but in the afternoon decided to change the course of events.
China posted weak data manufacturing PMI: 49,2 against the forecast of 50.5 and 50.7 the previous value. It seems - not expect the resumption of discussions on the need for additional stimulation of the Australian economy.
Mario Draghi yesterday assured us that the growth rate of the euro zone economy grows, markets today attempted to assess the key indicators of the EU PMI:
French Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.2 vs. 48.9 and 47.6 the previous
French Flash Services PMI 52.8 53.1 53.4
German Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.4 51.5 51.1
German Flash Services PMI 55.3 55.0 54.7
Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.9 51.6 51.0
Flash Services PMI 54.3 53.9 53.7

Cloth these data certainly called a "sign" that the eurozone will go to recovery, but it's just words and opinions. Nothing interesting, let QE little work and will actually "lift", because a trodden path: the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve have passed this way.
Greece will provide a package of reforms next Monday -priyatnaya news, but we'll see after the fact.
Britain on the brink of deflation, according to data released on Tuesday, the annual consumer price index exactly 0%, one more step and hi -0.1% deflation, the right has an annual base index "save" 1.2% into the (inflation index excluding perpetrators global inflation in the form of fuel prices, as well as tobacco, food and alcohol).
Dollar after the release of inflation data, still could not define their reaction, but in spite of the weak signals of statistics, nevertheless strengthened against most of its opponents. CPI 0,2% (vs. 0.2%), Core CPI 0,2% against 0.1%. But we would not be considered in the context of this publication Tuesday, excluding performance Bullard, who poured out another batch of opinions on the markets. Bullard ... still had the right data on the laying of new homes.
Zero rates are no longer suitable for the US economy. Bullard wants to raise interest rates in June.
It should be noted that Bullard is ready to hawk sayings sow feed bulls, do not take it to heart, at the same time the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis sometimes sends secret desire Fed. Deletion of the word "patience" - a great step gives the Fed more options, he said.
Establishment of new US homes 539K vs. 466K forecast and 500K previous final, practically does not show up on the instantaneous volatility, but the overall picture joined wonderful and helped further than greenbacks on Tuesday.

Also, let's not lose sight of the Fed's Williams with his phrase in the middle of the year it's time to discuss the rate increase. So, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco reiterated that the Fed should consider raising interest rates this summer. "The US economy gained good momentum ... despite the rather strong rise in the dollar," - said Williams.

But after Janet dollar will continue to fool us a head until the publication of "Farm" next week.

In the meantime, economists have 14% chance the Fed rate hike this year.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #335
  • Mar 24, 2015 5:09pm Mar 24, 2015 5:09pm
Thursday
11:30
26/03/15
GB Retail Sales HOT!
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
40% probability trades.

Thursday
16:30
26/03/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #336
  • Mar 24, 2015 8:15pm Mar 24, 2015 8:15pm
hi vvfish,Thanks for keeping this thread updated with your inspiring trade history.I have read the important posts as mentioned on the first page of 'high impact news system'by vigovski and loaded the indicators attached to my mt4 trade platform to test past newstime breakouts on major pairs and I have to admit the results are truly impressive. writing this thread to get your advise on the reliability of cc4 indicator vs Nihalist csm. and the use of myRSIOMA indi as seen on most of your screenshots but not used by vigovski in any of his examples. I have attached screenshot of today's nzd newstime. As we can see,Nihalist's csm showed NZD gained strength above 80 few minutes before the newstime while aud showed slight decline in strength which should be a sign for SHORT order.but candle went bullish upon breakout whereas cc4 showed the reverse and accurate signal.thanks in advance.
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  • #337
  • Mar 25, 2015 1:39am Mar 25, 2015 1:39am
Quoting raj_2488
hi vvfish,Thanks for keeping this thread updated with your inspiring trade history.I have read the important posts as mentioned on the first page of 'high impact news system'by vigovski and loaded the indicators attached to my mt4 trade platform to test past newstime breakouts on major pairs and I have to admit the results are truly impressive. writing this thread to get your advise on the reliability of cc4 indicator vs Nihalist csm. and the use of myRSIOMA indi as seen on most of your screenshots but not used by vigovski in any of his examples....
In one of the posts Vigovskoi gives a clue to help the СС set bollenger 24. Before the news it helps with the entrance into the market - but not always.
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  • #338
  • Mar 25, 2015 3:32am Mar 25, 2015 3:32am
Quoting vvFish
Thursday 11:30 26/03/15 GB Retail Sales HOT! (GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release. 40% probability trades. Thursday 16:30 26/03/15 US natural gas reserves GOOD (US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release. 35% probability trades. Good luck everybody!

Do you advice to enter before or after news release? How do you cope with slippage (especially on exits)?
  • #339
  • Mar 25, 2015 4:07am Mar 25, 2015 4:07am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #340
  • Mar 25, 2015 4:35am Mar 25, 2015 4:35am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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vvFish