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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #7,521
  • Mar 23, 2015 9:01am Mar 23, 2015 9:01am
Quoting deltaone
last one for today (if this one failes): long 11.884,7 sl -10 tp +30
sl hit. -10 -> risk budget catched, so i´m done for the day.

good luck + bis morgen.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,522
  • Mar 23, 2015 9:01am Mar 23, 2015 9:01am
Quoting adr201
In my opinion for every pattern that has worked out in the past there are at least 3 other very similar patterns that have failed but you can't see them if you look back at the charts.
I'll tell you more - for every pattern that worked in the past, there's exactly one, that didn't. Otherwise, one could come up with an approach of trading against a popular pattern to make money in a long run. Why, then, most of us are not making money, which is so simle?
  • #7,523
  • Mar 23, 2015 9:03am Mar 23, 2015 9:03am
Quoting smogser
{quote} )) Ok, ok. What then MA syntax has to do with human beings, since MA itself is just a mathematical processing of price? Patterns are formed because humans form them. no doubt. But do you realy believe, that this a privilegde of very few sufficiently intellectual taders to recognize those patterns? I am sure you don't. And as soon as this is the case, there have to be no losers from the part of those who carefuly watch the market and identify those patterns. But if there is no loser, there is no winner, as this is a zero sum game.
Without being disrespectful, as I put myself on an equal par with any other trader here, neither below or above, I feel you are misunderstanding the nature of trading. I do believe that it is the privilege of a relatively small number of people to understand and earn a living from trading, but I do not believe that this is because they are somehow intellectually superior. They are the ones that have stuck at it longest, have gained the most experience, and have learnt from theor own mistakes. The patterns are there to be recognized, but it is not easy and it takes many years, at least in my case. There will always be more losers than winners in trading, and therefore money in the pot for the winners, because trading is something anyone can get into with a few quid and an internet connection. It promises huge financial rewards and an easy lifestyle working from home. This allure is just too attractive, and the majority of new traders, totally unrealistic with their own expectations, put their money on the line without knowing what they are really doing, and for every trader that drops out, there are another 5 to take his or her place, and so it goes on. This is no zero sum game, because the losers will always outnumber the winners, and the winners are those who recognise this and stay the course.
  • #7,524
  • Mar 23, 2015 9:05am Mar 23, 2015 9:05am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} sl hit. -10 -> risk budget catched, so im done for the day. good luck + bis morgen.
Always tomorrow D1
  • #7,525
  • Mar 23, 2015 9:08am Mar 23, 2015 9:08am
Quoting twellve
{quote} But what if they are pointing in diff directions - whats takes priority? I see the 1M dropping for fun past 200ma and likely to bounce (IMHO) around 855 however 1h looks like its about to turn to the upside.....4h looks down and so does 30m for me Whats everyone elses view?

Hi twellve
Shorter Term Trading
I trade M1/M5 (witn EMA7 & 21) and at bigger price movements (ascending volatility) the M15 also with regard to H1, H2, H4, H8, Daily & Weekly (for a more general overview).
In a ranging moment (e.g. ADX) I like to focus on H1 overlapping candles and trade these hip-hops at M1/M5 by minimizing the losses at sudden abrupt price movements in the contrary direction with a Stop Loss. I use also some of my scalping concepts which I have published at FF here.
The monthly candle seems actual long shaped so that market disturbances (ups and downs) could be actually expected. The last 6 daily candles are forming a range at the moment, so it could be that this market consolidation could develop the next bigger upside movement (13'500 or so). 11'750 is my SL in longer term daily trading.
11'884 seems a good price for going long longer term IMO. If the monthly march candle will shaping out a shooting star (which I didn't expected) then chances (probabilities) should be greater for a downside movement.
FXcube
  • #7,526
  • Mar 23, 2015 9:11am Mar 23, 2015 9:11am
Quoting cat
{quote} because the losers will always outnumber the winners, and the winners are those who recognise this and stay the course.
Nice one Cat! could not say it better...
"No patterns "
Carpe Vinum.
  • #7,527
  • Edited 9:26am Mar 23, 2015 9:13am | Edited 9:26am
Quoting twellve
{quote} But what if they are pointing in diff directions - whats takes priority? I see the 1M dropping for fun past 200ma and likely to bounce (IMHO) around 855 however 1h looks like its about to turn to the upside.....4h looks down and so does 30m for me Whats everyone elses view?
quick reply here twelve. If you are trading a 1 min TF and you are worried about what the H1 is doing, then you'll never enter a trade at all. If you are scalping 20 to 60 pip[s or whatever on small TFs, then you want to be concentrating on chart around the smaller time frames - so 10 sec for your entry point, 1 min which gives you the trade set up, 3 or 5 min which show you that you are likely to be trading with momentum in your favour etc. Sometimes the only signal you'll get will be on the 10 sec chart, but because you are expecting the price say to be turning around this level, it's worth taking it with a small SL.

I know this doesn't really answer you question clearly, sometimes it's difficult to explain something in words that is of purely visual complexity. The trick is to keep it all as simple as possible. Study what the market does over and over again, determine direction, find out where it is likely to do this, look for signals, and dive in. That's really all there is to it. In fact I'd go as far as saying, that the more stupid you are as a person, the better trader you will become
  • #7,528
  • Mar 23, 2015 9:19am Mar 23, 2015 9:19am
Quoting twellve
{quote} But what if they are pointing in diff directions - whats takes priority? I see the 1M dropping for fun past 200ma and likely to bounce (IMHO) around 855 however 1h looks like its about to turn to the upside.....4h looks down and so does 30m for me Whats everyone elses view?
Tick charts, i.e. so many ticks per candle, instead of time based charts.
  • #7,529
  • Edited 10:01am Mar 23, 2015 9:35am | Edited 10:01am
Quoting cat
{quote} Without being disrespectful, as I put myself on an equal par with any other trader here, neither below or above, I feel you are misunderstanding the nature of trading. I do believe that it is the privilege of a relatively small number of people to understand and earn a living from trading, but I do not believe that this is because they are somehow intellectually superior. They are the ones that have stuck at it longest, have gained the most experience, and have learnt from theor own mistakes. The patterns are there to be recognized, but...
)) I guess, that after so many years in trading I am one of the lucky ones who not only understands the nature of trading but also preaches it. But let put this aside and talk a bit about zero sum game concept.
I must dissappoint you that for every trader that drops out there are no another 5 ones that drop in. This business has become extremely competitive.
And first of all, it is big money, which compete for hundreds of thousands of small deposits, trying to rip them off. Not only they compete for this capital, but they make ernomous efforts to recruit this capital, experiencing lately rather big problems doing so.
But that's not the main point. We are talking here about zero-sum game with regard to patterns recognition, not in a sense that an overall result is neutral - of course a majority of tradesr leave the battle field without a penny (in fact, around 90 %).
Patterns - are one of the first things, which are tought to new traders as they start visiting their broker's courses. And I am sure that in two weeks of training they become experts in patterns recognition. But this never helps. When the majority of new traders together with experienced ones identify a pattern - be it a traditional one or some "secret" one - they open positions in the pattern's direction, but every purchase has to coinside with selling, meaning that there has to be exactly the same amount of capital on the other side. Why this other side opens a contrary position, if they see the pattern too? There are few reasons for that, but I'll tell you the main one - big money is hunting for liquidity, as I said this is an extremely competitive venture.
And to make a long story short, A pattern will work only then when there is no interest on the part of big players to absorb a demand/supply, arrising out of this pattern. But since you never know what Big Money plans are, you'll never going to know when the pattern is going to work.
  • #7,530
  • Mar 23, 2015 10:12am Mar 23, 2015 10:12am
hi, longs again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The only constant is change
  • #7,531
  • Mar 23, 2015 10:23am Mar 23, 2015 10:23am
Quoting littspaniard
hi, longs again {image}
Still waiting for my buy limit at 11848 to be hit. Now is not a good timiing for long, IMO. There's clearly a consolidation 11881- 11951 with no way to say where it is going to breake out.
  • #7,532
  • Mar 23, 2015 10:31am Mar 23, 2015 10:31am
Quoting smogser
{quote} )) I guess, that after so many years in trading I am one of the lucky ones who not only understands the nature of trading but also preaches it. But let put this aside and talk a bit about zero sum game concept. I must dissappoint you that for every trader that drops out there are no another 5 ones that drop in. This business has become extremely competitive. And first of all, it is big money, which compete for hundreds of thousands of small deposits, trying to rip them off. Not only they compete for this capital, but they make ernomous efforts...
  • #7,533
  • Mar 23, 2015 10:35am Mar 23, 2015 10:35am
Thanks Forexcube and Cat - really helpful ...think I need to keep scalping to small tf and long term objectives to H1 and above

I dont have 10s tf - is this on Mt4 ??
  • #7,534
  • Edited 10:49am Mar 23, 2015 10:37am | Edited 10:49am
Again and again and again. Load/cut/load/cut. Wonder if this chop ever finishes. Ah I wish I were scalper again.

Edit: Yy, bearish day finished with chop, me megabull = totally facked up account. Just lol. Ok, am back at 5% target . Told ya that 50 was luckz.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,535
  • Mar 23, 2015 10:49am Mar 23, 2015 10:49am
Quoting smogser
{quote} Still waiting for my buy limit at 11848 to be hit. Now is not a good timiing for long, IMO. There's clearly a consolidation 11881- 11951 with no way to say where it is going to breake out.
hi, yes maybe no googd timing overall because is lunch time in US and nobody there to pilot the ship.

sl 20 (x3) hit

regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The only constant is change
  • #7,536
  • Mar 23, 2015 10:52am Mar 23, 2015 10:52am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Again and again and again. Load/cut/load/cut. Wonder if this chop ever finishes. Ah I wish I were scalper again.

Keep it up, my friend!
Better time will come!
Best wishes from Switzerland!
FXcube
  • #7,537
  • Mar 23, 2015 10:53am Mar 23, 2015 10:53am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Again and again and again. Load/cut/load/cut. Wonder if this chop ever finishes. Ah I wish I were scalper again. Edit: Yy, bearish day finished with chop, me megabull = totally facked up account. Just lol. Ok, am back at 5% target . Told ya that 50 was luckz.
Ha! And final breakdown cut and am actually in loss, out of +50% in last week. Am pro.

Ok, gonna go lick my wounds. Bb later.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,538
  • Mar 23, 2015 10:54am Mar 23, 2015 10:54am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} Keep it up, my friend! Better time will come! Best wishes from Switzerland! FXcube
Thank you very much for such kind words. It actually really helps me in my pain. Am pretty sad now.

Thanks. Tom
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,539
  • Mar 23, 2015 11:12am Mar 23, 2015 11:12am
Quoting twellve
...think I need to keep scalping to small tf and long term objectives to H1 and above I dont have 10s tf - is this on Mt4 ??

No there isn't!..but at Oanda...or Dukascopy (seconds ticks).
FXcube
  • #7,540
  • Mar 23, 2015 11:40am Mar 23, 2015 11:40am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Again and again and again. Load/cut/load/cut. Wonder if this chop ever finishes. Ah I wish I were scalper again. Edit: Yy, bearish day finished with chop, me megabull = totally facked up account. Just lol. Ok, am back at 5% target . Told ya that 50 was luckz.
Dont worry, sh!t happens... You're doing great
RevarK
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