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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #7,501
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:11am Mar 23, 2015 8:11am
Quoting cat
{quote} what do you mean by near future?
This week.... I seem to have completely lost the plot with my analysis. I felt bullish this morning and didn't see the downside.
  • #7,502
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:14am Mar 23, 2015 8:14am
Quoting Amahesh
{quote} This week.... I seem to have completely lost the plot with my analysis. I felt bullish this morning and didn't see the downside.
check my posts, I predicted it yesterday. Don't worry, we all have days where we lose the plot. This week, who knows... maybe today if Draghi struts his funky stuff, but technically, it's not on at all.
  • #7,503
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:19am Mar 23, 2015 8:19am
Quoting Amahesh
{quote} This week.... I seem to have completely lost the plot with my analysis. I felt bullish this morning and didn't see the downside.
trend has not changed, so chances are good. holding dax etf to 12.225
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,504
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:21am Mar 23, 2015 8:21am
Quoting cat
{quote} check my posts, I predicted it yesterday. Don't worry, we all have days where we lose the plot. This week, who knows... maybe today if Draghi struts his funky stuff, but technically, it's not on at all.
Cat, if you don't mind me asking- what do you see on the technical front that indicates this?
  • #7,505
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:27am Mar 23, 2015 8:27am
H4 chart at the moment resembles the H4 at around the 6th Feb. That time the price fell to find support on the rising 100sma. Will this repeat itself?
  • #7,506
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:32am Mar 23, 2015 8:32am
Quoting Amahesh
{quote} Cat, if you don't mind me asking- what do you see on the technical front that indicates this?
I wouldn't really be able to share this properly without giving away my whole strategy with is based on what I call MA syntax, which is the way certain moving averages relate to each other on any given time frame. I'll have a look and a think and see if there is anything else that indicated that we were rolling over and pm you if I can come up with something.
  • #7,507
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:32am Mar 23, 2015 8:32am
Quoting cat
H4 chart at the moment resembles the H4 at around the 6th Feb. That time the price fell to find support on the rising 100sma. Will this repeat itself?
The history never reapeats itself to the effect, that it can yield any statistical advantage, otherwise trading would've been a very easy stuff.
  • #7,508
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:34am Mar 23, 2015 8:34am
Hi Cat

Whats the best tf to look at to see the likely direction 1m or 1day ??
  • #7,509
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:38am Mar 23, 2015 8:38am
Quoting smogser
{quote} The history never reapeats itself to the effect, that it can yield any statistical advantage, otherwise trading would've been a very easy stuff.
You are very wrong! trading is all about identifying patterns on the charts that repeat themselves over and over again. No one said this is easy, but that is the challenge for all of us. The human mind drives the markets, not some unfathomable robot, and because the human instincts of greed and fear are always at play, patterns are formed and from these we make money.
  • #7,510
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:40am Mar 23, 2015 8:40am
long @11.906,2 sl -10 tp +30
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,511
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:41am Mar 23, 2015 8:41am
Trading with enough deposits seems the first rule of all.
...and the ability to wait (time management) the second one.
FXcube
  • #7,512
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:43am Mar 23, 2015 8:43am
long @11.908 sl -10

Sl hit
  • #7,513
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:43am Mar 23, 2015 8:43am
At 11'915 it's longer term absolutely irrelevant if you go up or down. You'll make your money in all these two ways - longer term.
FXcube
  • #7,514
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:44am Mar 23, 2015 8:44am
Quoting twellve
Hi Cat Whats the best tf to look at to see the likely direction 1m or 1day ??
To trade a 1m chart, obviously you need a 1m chart. Yuo also need something smaller, 10 or 20 second, and 1 bigger, say 3 or 5 min.
To get the main direction for the day, or at least the morning, you need an hourly, a 10 or 20 minute, and perhaps a 4 hourly chart which may help with S&R.
  • #7,515
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:47am Mar 23, 2015 8:47am
Quoting deltaone
long @11.906,2 sl -10 tp +30
sl hit. -10
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,516
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:49am Mar 23, 2015 8:49am
Quoting cat
{quote} You are very wrong! trading is all about identifying patterns on the charts that repeat themselves over and over again. No one said this is easy, but that is the challenge for all of us. The human mind drives the markets, not some unfathomable robot, and because the human instincts of greed and fear are always at play, patterns are formed and from these we make money.
)) Ok, ok. What then MA syntax has to do with human beings, since MA itself is just a mathematical processing of price? Patterns are formed because humans form them. no doubt. But do you realy believe, that this is a privilegde of very few sufficiently intellectual taders to recognize those patterns? I am sure you don't. And as soon as this is the case, there have to be no losers from the part of those who carefuly watch the market and identify those patterns. But if there is no loser, there is no winner, as this is a zero sum game.
  • #7,517
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:50am Mar 23, 2015 8:50am
Quoting cat
{quote} To trade a 1m chart, obviously you need a 1m chart. Yuo also need something smaller, 10 or 20 second, and 1 bigger, say 3 or 5 min. To get the main direction for the day, or at least the morning, you need an hourly, a 10 or 20 minute, and perhaps a 4 hourly chart which may help with S&R.

But what if they are pointing in diff directions - whats takes priority? I see the 1M dropping for fun past 200ma and likely to bounce (IMHO) around 855
however 1h looks like its about to turn to the upside.....4h looks down and so does 30m for me

Whats everyone elses view?
  • #7,518
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:52am Mar 23, 2015 8:52am
last one for today (if this one failes): long 11.884,7 sl -10 tp +30
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,519
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:53am Mar 23, 2015 8:53am
In my opinion for every pattern that has worked out in the past there are at least 3 other very similar patterns that have failed but you can't see them if you look back at the charts.
  • #7,520
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:54am Mar 23, 2015 8:54am
Quoting cat
{quote} The human mind drives the markets, not some unfathomable robot, and because the human instincts of greed and fear are always at play, patterns are formed and from these we make money.
Besides, you might be very much surprised to learn, that it is robots, that can be held accountable for most of significant market moves. I'm sure you heard about such thing as "liquidity crash".
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