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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #7,421
  • Mar 20, 2015 10:36am Mar 20, 2015 10:36am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} done with dax for today, one last dow long is running here. {image}
closed manually. +50

nice weekend everyone!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,422
  • Mar 20, 2015 10:40am Mar 20, 2015 10:40am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} closed manually. +50 nice weekend everyone!
And me TPd most. Nice weekend to you too mate!
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,423
  • Mar 21, 2015 5:24am Mar 21, 2015 5:24am
Quoting ruiflavius
{quote} Thank you, later vote and here I leave my monthly chart, but really is a prediction. Since the sky is the limit for these things, is never high or more low too.
Here is my vote, and I believe rather that go to 13200-13250, during 2015, as shown in chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ger30-mn1-thinkforex-com.png Size: 40 KB
  • #7,424
  • Edited 5:01am Mar 22, 2015 3:02am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting ruiflavius
{quote} Here is my vote, and I believe rather that go to 13200-13250, during 2015, as shown in chart. {image}
Initial calculations of a Forecast Avg PE for DAX of 17.5 equated to 13,418pts a couple of months back.

Current Avg PE ratio for the DAX is 16.6 @ 12,028pts.

16 of the 30 Dax companies have an Avg PE ratio below my 17.5 target (and Lufthansa is carrying -PE), on fundamentals this adds to the scope to upside.

My latest target calculations for Avg PE ratio of 17.5 is now @ 12,653 pts. Until then, I'll stay Long and try to Buy on dips, particularly any repeating 400 point retracements south.

Risk factors to Forward Earnings of DAX entities - starting to see rising commodities prices (base metals, although Oil will continue to underperform) and modest EUR strengthening against USD.
  • #7,425
  • Mar 22, 2015 3:11am Mar 22, 2015 3:11am
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/it-...-30-2015-03-20

An interesting read.
  • #7,426
  • Mar 22, 2015 3:34am Mar 22, 2015 3:34am
Quoting Amahesh
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/it-...-30-2015-03-20 An interesting read.
Soc Gen have bearish predictions of the SP, indicating a correction is on the cards for the 2nd half of 2015. SP is in its 7th calendar year of positive returns, and Soc Gen indicate that the SP has never done that before, which is their argument for the SP correction later this year. If the SP corrects, it will drag most equities markets down with it is my opinion, and I believe that would be one of their underlying arguments for the forecast pullback on the DAX later this year.

The fact that the DAX is up 23% since start of this year as per that article doesn't mean much in isolation, because the DAX has had years where it returned over 50% per year (EG 1997 and 2003)! (http://www.forecast-chart.com/histor...x-germany.html)

Cheap credit, ECB bond buying, weakening commodities prices, and weakening EUR provides for excellent fundamentals for DAX to rise, but I suspect commodities prices and EUR will fluctuate (positively and negatively for the DAX).

Based on current earnings (and fundamentals), I still think the DAX has 600pts to the upside this year. After this target, I may shift to a neutral conviction on the DAX.
  • #7,427
  • Mar 22, 2015 8:53am Mar 22, 2015 8:53am
Quoting Amahesh
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/it-...-30-2015-03-20 An interesting read.
Could be a good idea to invest in EU equities that are lagging behind $DAX, but i definitely wouldn't sell $DAX.
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #7,428
  • Edited 1:43pm Mar 22, 2015 9:48am | Edited 1:43pm
I'm looking at the hourly chart, and it looks as if we are entering a bearish phase which should see the price drop down to around the 11,900 - 850 level, when it should become clear whether we turn around or drop further. However, I think Monday morning could well see a push back up towards 12,085 to form another top, maybe a double, which may well be a good place to sell.

these are only tentative thoughts based on what I see taking shape, and tomorrow morning it should be clearer.As for Draghi tomorrow afternoon, we'll see at 2pm.
  • #7,429
  • Mar 22, 2015 1:06pm Mar 22, 2015 1:06pm
Hi mate, hope you had a nice weekend. Where you wanna start to load?

I would prefere 11945 for start load. But PA may hold at 12000s. Area getting pretty stuffed with S/R - becomes nice cluser for future reference. Dragass speaking today, markets could cover pre speech and give an opportunity.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,430
  • Mar 22, 2015 6:32pm Mar 22, 2015 6:32pm
Maybe we could see an elastic dax band today.
If I would be inclined to execute some longs after bigger downside movements et vice versa I will monitor the M1/M5/M15 charts predominantly today.
10'080/20 - 15'000? all seems possible.
Let's see.
FXcube
  • #7,431
  • Mar 22, 2015 9:45pm Mar 22, 2015 9:45pm
Quoting cat
I'm looking at the hourly chart, and it looks as if we are entering a bearish phase which should see the price drop down to around the 11,900 - 850 level, when it should become clear whether we turn around or drop further. However, I think Monday morning could well see a push back up towards 12,085 to form another top, maybe a double, which may well be a good place to sell. these are only tentative thoughts based on what I see taking shape, and tomorrow morning it should be clearer.As for Draghi tomorrow afternoon, we'll see at 2pm.
Hey Cat - What was your explanation for the initial pullback we often experience on the DAX at London open ?
Cheers
  • #7,432
  • Mar 23, 2015 2:10am Mar 23, 2015 2:10am
12229+ Is a heavy stop node - potential target for me.
On the downside i would target the 11950s (Friday low).

Everything else depends on the price action and the tape.
It's all psychology...
  • #7,433
  • Mar 23, 2015 2:13am Mar 23, 2015 2:13am
Quoting LamerTrader
12229+ Is a heavy stop node - potential target for me. On the downside i would target the 11950s (Friday low). Everything else depends on the price action and the tape.
What do you mean by heavy stop node?
  • #7,434
  • Mar 23, 2015 2:19am Mar 23, 2015 2:19am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Hey Cat - What was your explanation for the initial pullback we often experience on the DAX at London open ? Cheers
My explanation is that if the price is going to fall, or has already fallen prior to the open, then the big boys want to bring it back to a level, usually a moving average/fib level on a small TF which can be a small as 10 seconds, where the risk for entry is minimised. The tendency recently has been for a long move at the open, even if the main move of the morning is down. It's tricky to catch though, and has to be done on small time frames, 1m or less.
  • #7,435
  • Mar 23, 2015 2:28am Mar 23, 2015 2:28am
good morning,

r3 12.295,5
r2 12.190,7
r1 12.107,0
p 12.002,2
s1 11.918,5
s2 11.813,7
s3 11.730,0

xetra-close: 12.039,37

good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,436
  • Mar 23, 2015 2:34am Mar 23, 2015 2:34am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi mate, hope you had a nice weekend. Where you wanna start to load? I would prefere 11945 for start load. But PA may hold at 12000s. Area getting pretty stuffed with S/R - becomes nice cluser for future reference. Dragass speaking today, markets could cover pre speech and give an opportunity. {image}
hi tom,

yes, it was nice. donīt know exactly, think i will try gap-close first if xetra-gap is big enough.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,437
  • Mar 23, 2015 2:41am Mar 23, 2015 2:41am
Quoting Amahesh
{quote} What do you mean by heavy stop node?
Confluence of daily highs + swings highs. Locations where people put their stop loss orders = location for bigger players to target and cover.

Edit:
+ Round Numbers!
It's all psychology...
  • #7,438
  • Edited 3:01am Mar 23, 2015 2:47am | Edited 3:01am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} hi tom, yes, it was nice. dont know exactly, think i will try gap-close first if xetra-gap is big enough.
Well I have already bought CFD Air. Hope Xetra wont screw me over

Edit: Yeh, Xetra not very friendly to CFD noobs.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,439
  • Mar 23, 2015 3:02am Mar 23, 2015 3:02am
and there we have the classical "after triple witching dip" on xetra base.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #7,440
  • Mar 23, 2015 3:07am Mar 23, 2015 3:07am
Sellers certainly didn't want to mess around this morning.
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