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EURUSD

  • #971,381
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:14pm Mar 19, 2015 3:14pm
Pick up ur choice
What ur view for next "big pic"?
1- It will b sinking much more
2- time to get up and back to 1.3000
3- don't care about big pic
  • #971,382
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:15pm Mar 19, 2015 3:15pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Yup ... still looking for decent material on your style of trading, I am mostly underway intraday now, but it is a bit stressful although results are getting better now.
Only take a few positions, very small sizes, wait for positive swaps to favour a LONG hold. Trade indexes and equities, look for classic consolidation patterns. Don't be hasty to enter price often returns to test levels.... Respect your stops. Then hold and hold and hold your profits.

I'm surprised at how so many can hold a loss for months but a profit for only a few days. Game theory etc.... Please to hear you are improving, time is a great teacher
  • #971,383
  • Edited 8:16pm Mar 19, 2015 3:15pm | Edited 8:16pm
Something of note here....

Same levels I shorted from last week, are now bouncing for longs this week (support turned resistance)....

In and of itself not too significant...however; the same thing happened (bear move turned mid term bullish) from these (exact) levels before. Only difference being we went down to 100% instead of just 80.9

Should we see a short to medium term bullish reversal...1440 & 1537 will be numbers to watch for extensions

I'm not bullish
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  • #971,384
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:17pm Mar 19, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} but for short time window, I expect the wick of the weekly candle to be filled next couple weeks if the current week turns out green
watching the line 1.0606 for short time response

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #971,385
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:18pm Mar 19, 2015 3:18pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Only take a few positions, very small sizes, wait for positive swaps to favour a LONG hold. Trade indexes and equities, look for classic consolidation patterns. Don't be hasty to enter price often returns to test levels.... Respect your stops. Then hold and hold and hold your profits. I'm surprised at how so many can hold a loss for months but a profit for only a few days. Game theory etc.... Please to hear you are improving, time is a great teacher
Yes, I understand what you mean. This limits me mostly by funds - equities and indexes need some account size, otherwise I think it is gambling. FX can be traded with very small leverages nowadays. Intraday trading has the merit of working on your precision game, yet looking at the bigger picture seems more rewarding to me in the long run. Yeah, it is really funny how people can hold on to losers forever but cut their profits very quick ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #971,386
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:26pm Mar 19, 2015 3:26pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Only take a few positions, very small sizes, wait for positive swaps to favour a LONG hold. Trade indexes and equities, look for classic consolidation patterns. Don't be hasty to enter price often returns to test levels.... Respect your stops. Then hold and hold and hold your profits. I'm surprised at how so many can hold a loss for months but a profit for only a few days. Game theory etc.... Please to hear you are improving, time is a great teacher
that is a very important point. people can hold positions deep underwater for months, but once they turns profit they are closed for a small profit. That way risk is always higher than gain; it will not survive in the long run.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #971,387
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:27pm Mar 19, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting ws121

  1. Interest Rates (and interest rates differentials)
  2. Inflation
  3. Macroeconomic numbers (employment, GDP etc)
  4. Risk (short term factors not structural ones)
  5. Correlated markets (equities, commodities etc)
  6. Internal variables of a currency (e.g milk production/dem for NZD, Oil for CAD, etc)
  7. Macro players positioning (CB holding reserves, sovereign funds, etc)
  8. Main options position for international trade related flows.
  9. Major speculators
  10. Dealing desks (just for the micro moves)"


- How can one determine point...

For 4 follow the news and markets everyday. for 7,8,9 and 10 you must get a top news live provider and add a few thousand hours under your belt.

You can't follow all of them !!!!. You need to choose what are you timeframe for trading. You CANT trade all of the moves in the market.

Look at most of the posters in this thread some they are holding for of couple minutes in micro trades of a few ticks(pips) do you really reckon that you need to know the inside out of macro players positioning? sure they get burnt more often than not especially because they don't have the tools or the experience to trade such a shark infested playing field but the point is that you need to choose your FRAME and look for the tools accordingly.

...or look at the opposite side, of the traders that are for the swings. Do you really think we care about a micro dealer run of stops in the middle of nowhere? ...its is not even visual in my charts? ...again point is the same. Choose your poison but CHOOSE and MASTER the RIGHT tools that match your timeframe and risk profile ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #971,388
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:30pm Mar 19, 2015 3:30pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} We are still to roll ...but in my books that leg is a +300 tick up leg. Choppy/ slow and whatever but that is the leg in play if it pans out....lets see the roll first ... sisse
Agreed, like to think USD-Bears can't handle much more right now, well 30-pips playing room....
USDOLLAR D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #971,389
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:32pm Mar 19, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting sisse
match your timeframe and risk profile .... sisse
For example I am nuts.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #971,390
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:34pm Mar 19, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Gotta m15 move confirm on EU and AU. GU trying to join but poor old GBP edit: UJ tries to join the party, but is on heavy support edit: Actually bought few AUs, just for intraday bounce. Is bouncing off monthly support. SL 0,7606 - so far . TP 0,7664 edit: Is a monthly level, which resulted in cluster with fibos etc. Strong S/R. {image}
GU trying more hard, but still below mumbo jumbo indian marker.
In the meanwhile AU hits first intraday R - 7644
I have also bought few Geppys. Keeping it tight, am afraid of GBP
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #971,391
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:35pm Mar 19, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} that is a very important point. people can hold positions deep underwater for months, but once they turns profit they are closed for a small profit. That way risk is always higher than gain; it will not survive in the long run.
it is like running risk and profit at different time frames: Risk at large time frame and profit at small time frame. How to survive this way?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #971,392
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:47pm Mar 19, 2015 3:47pm
Quoting LizardGizzard
{quote} Is it supposed to bounce to 1.0720? I'd like to know exactly when that will happen, too.
Seems possible soon
  • #971,393
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:47pm Mar 19, 2015 3:47pm
The EUR/USD fell to the 1.06-1.07 level today and soon we are going to see more down to the pair as the bearish trend still strong.
  • #971,394
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:52pm Mar 19, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} For 4 follow the news and markets everyday. for 7,8,9 and 10 you must get a top news live provider and add a few thousand hours under your belt. You can't follow all of them !!!!. You need to choose what are you timeframe for trading. You CANT trade all of the moves in the market. Look at most of the posters in this thread some they are holding for of couple minutes in micro trades of a few ticks(pips) do you really reckon that you need to know the inside out of macro players positioning? sure they get burnt more often than not especially...
Thanks, I appreciate it. I suppose there is no specific courses or systems as to how to choose the right tools for a specific time frame!!! It's something one develops over experience, right? I only wish there are such courses.
Anyway, thanks for your help. I'm trying to collect all of your posts that are related to general thinking and analysis of the market (it's taking me forever), hoping it will somehow help me in my way.
  • #971,395
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:56pm Mar 19, 2015 3:56pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yeap ...nothing to do until 1.068x is taken back up. The main issue right now in play its 1.063x holding the roll (especially the weekly roll) as it will first set the low of the month and second it will kill all volatility (it has been a wild 2 days as expected with the FED) for a few weeks. In simple words, the only way to keep the pair kicking in terms of short term volatility it's a very quick break down to the 1.050x handle ... Lets see how it plays ... sisse
not yet going to get the close. but it has 400 pips.. st pa had me looking for 0688 before 0543...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #971,396
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:01pm Mar 19, 2015 4:01pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Try using stops that will avoid random entry based on feel/hope
Really don't like using stops when along w/ strong trends, however, I will have to start using them to know exactly how much I'm risking on each trade to ensure I don't wipe out accounts.
  • #971,397
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:13pm Mar 19, 2015 4:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} not yet going to get the close. but it has 400 pips.. st pa had me looking for 0688 before 0543...
...and we rolled ... a slightly bullish close but there is nothing else to the upside with 1.068x holding... nothing to see in the euro...same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #971,398
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:22pm Mar 19, 2015 4:22pm
Sisse, could you give some insight about point 8 - Main options position for international trade related flows?
what exactly is this
  • #971,399
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:24pm Mar 19, 2015 4:24pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and we rolled ... a slightly bullish close but there is nothing else to the upside with 1.068x holding... nothing to see in the euro...same levels, same trades, same all.... sisse
since close was above London... just as strictly pa norm 0826 0774 0764... not s/r's just some possible norm.. along with 0688... s/r posted and add 0707...and 0471 and = distance between .. u can add that distance to 0707 1 or 2x... or subtract the same from 0471..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #971,400
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:29pm Mar 19, 2015 4:29pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and we rolled ... a slightly bullish close but there is nothing else to the upside with 1.068x holding... nothing to see in the euro...same levels, same trades, same all.... sisse
200/15m ema was in the 0680 area today.. 0675 ish atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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