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  • #971,361
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:30pm Mar 19, 2015 2:30pm
Quoting Malchi
{quote} My account will be the same like before FOMC in few days + I have great experience ... ))
Priceless . What doesnt kill you makes you stronger huh?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #971,362
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:31pm Mar 19, 2015 2:31pm
Quoting deylon
is the last candlestick a reversal sign ? this is on the weekly chart {image}
does it look like this?

Attached Image
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #971,363
  • Edited 2:45pm Mar 19, 2015 2:34pm | Edited 2:45pm
Quoting ws121
{quote} What about the oil price? if you don't mind me asking "hope my question makes sense.... does the price of oil affect the EURUSD? I know it does, generally speaking, but in this market condition, isn't the EURUSD price mostly influenced by the ECB and their QE program? "
If you are asking about right now the last couple of days? ... no not at all. We are just playing rates from the FED. 99.99% of the latest moves were related to that.

If you are asking about in general? If a have to make quick simplify top 10 "cheatsheet" for currencies in order of importance:

0. [lol ...forgot to add the most important one]. CB monetary policies (QE, bands, interventions, etc).

  1. Interest Rates (and interest rates differentials)
  2. Inflation
  3. Macroeconomic numbers (employment, GDP etc)
  4. Risk (short term factors not structural ones)
  5. Correlated markets (equities, commodities etc)
  6. Internal variables of a currency (e.g milk production/dem for NZD, Oil for CAD, etc)
  7. Macro players positioning (CB holding reserves, sovereign funds, etc)
  8. Main options position for international trade related flows.
  9. Major speculators
  10. Dealing desks (just for the micro moves)

Thats is quick bastardise cheatsheet ...i hope it helps.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #971,364
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:44pm Mar 19, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} does it look like this? {image}
it will be in the grave yard for a while -- 3 or 4 months.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro_514.png Size: 434 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #971,365
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:46pm Mar 19, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} does it look like this? {image}
Hello ffleo,

Inverted Hammer Important Results

Theoretical performance: Bullish reversal
Tested performance: Bearish continuation 65% of the time
Frequency rank: 61
Overall performance rank: 6
Best percentage meeting price target: 68% (bull market, up breakout)
Best average move in 10 days: 7.74% (bear market, up breakout)
Best 10-day performance rank: 9 (bear market, up breakout)
All ranks are out of 103 candlestick patterns with the top performer ranking 1. "Best" means the highest rated of the four combinations of bull/bear market, up/down breakouts.
The above numbers are based on hundreds of perfect trades. See the glossary for definitions.

Ref:http://thepatternsite.com/HammerInv.html

  • #971,366
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:50pm Mar 19, 2015 2:50pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Hello ffleo, Inverted Hammer Important Results Theoretical performance: Bullish reversal Tested performance: Bearish continuation 65% of the time Frequency rank: 61 Overall performance rank: 6 Best percentage meeting price target: 68% (bull market, up breakout) Best average move in 10 days: 7.74% (bear market, up breakout) Best 10-day performance rank: 9 (bear market, up breakout) All ranks are out of 103 candlestick patterns with the top performer ranking 1. "Best" means the highest rated of the four combinations of bull/bear market, up/down...
Hi turtle man, how have you been? Still holding from 1.39?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #971,367
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:51pm Mar 19, 2015 2:51pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Hello ffleo, Inverted Hammer Important Results Theoretical performance: Bullish reversal Tested performance: Bearish continuation 65% of the time Frequency rank: 61 Overall performance rank: 6 Best percentage meeting price target: 68% (bull market, up breakout) Best average move in 10 days: 7.74% (bear market, up breakout) Best 10-day performance rank: 9 (bear market, up breakout) All ranks are out of 103 candlestick patterns with the top performer ranking 1. "Best" means the highest rated of the four combinations of bull/bear market, up/down...
Hey Jimmy, long time no see. I have always enjoyed seeing your charts.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #971,368
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:53pm Mar 19, 2015 2:53pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} I cant really complain, I made a good amount yesterday on the squeeze and got out near the top, Im just annoyed I didnt get into this move today and actually lost about 15% of what I made yesterday. FOMC seems to be in a tough spot as the market completely ignored their comments on the Dollar. The only true change at this point is that the USD may be more sensitive to upcoming data, I will be waiting to see Monday's CPI. Maybe my school will upset win this March Madness game and make things all right in the world lol.


Wow my god that was the most amazing ending ive ever seen... GSU won
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #971,369
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:55pm Mar 19, 2015 2:55pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Hello ffleo, Inverted Hammer Important Results Theoretical performance: Bullish reversal Tested performance: Bearish continuation 65% of the time Frequency rank: 61 Overall performance rank: 6 Best percentage meeting price target: 68% (bull market, up breakout) Best average move in 10 days: 7.74% (bear market, up breakout) Best 10-day performance rank: 9 (bear market, up breakout) All ranks are out of 103 candlestick patterns with the top performer ranking 1. "Best" means the highest rated of the four combinations of bull/bear market, up/down...
as to euro, I expect it to dip to 1.025 area to touch the 1.272 fib projection, which is also the deep grave area of the market profile. It is not there yet. It needs to go there before a trace
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #971,370
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:57pm Mar 19, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} Hey Jimmy, long time no see. I have always enjoyed seeing your charts.
Been staying away from the factory for a bit of a break... Yep charts, love them, trading not so much...
  • #971,371
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:57pm Mar 19, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} chanced some longs there USDOLLAR M15: {image}
stops @ BE (1,0620) now
The "retrace" has been very lackluster for now, so not willing to risk more
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #971,372
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:59pm Mar 19, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hi turtle man, how have you been? Still holding from 1.39?
Nope, I did have a go at entering again and shorting it with the AU,and GU very reliable shorts, just wait for the rally and short and hold for a month or two, you guys all good? I see some power hitters are back around to help Gator teach (Sissie )
  • #971,373
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:02pm Mar 19, 2015 3:02pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} as to euro, I expect it to dip to 1.025 area to touch the 1.272 fib projection, which is also the deep grave area of the market profile. It is not there yet. It needs to go there before a trace
but for short time window, I expect the wick of the weekly candle to be filled next couple weeks if the current week turns out green
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #971,374
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:02pm Mar 19, 2015 3:02pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} as to euro, I expect it to dip to 1.025 area to touch the 1.272 fib projection, which is also the deep grave area of the market profile. It is not there yet. It needs to go there before a trace
I'm in from higher and holding so far, so with you there 4 sure
  • #971,375
  • Edited 3:13pm Mar 19, 2015 3:02pm | Edited 3:13pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} chanced some longs there USDOLLAR M15: {image}
Gotta m15 move confirm on EU and AU. GU trying to join but poor old GBP

edit: UJ tries to join the party, but is on heavy support
edit: Actually bought few AUs, just for intraday bounce. Is bouncing off monthly support. SL 0,7606 - so far . TP 0,7664
edit: Is a monthly level, which resulted in cluster with fibos etc. Strong S/R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cluster.JPG Size: 101 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #971,376
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:03pm Mar 19, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Nope, I did have a go at entering again and shorting it with the AU,and GU very reliable shorts, just wait for the rally and short and hold for a month or two, you guys all good? I see some power hitters are back around to help Gator teach (Sissie )
Yup ... still looking for decent material on your style of trading, I am mostly underway intraday now, but it is a bit stressful although results are getting better now.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #971,377
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:09pm Mar 19, 2015 3:09pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} If you are asking about right now the last couple of days? ... no not at all. We are just playing rates from the FED. 99.99% of the latest moves were related to that. If you are asking about in general? If a have to make quick simplify top 10 "cheatsheet" for currencies in order of importance: 0. [lol ...forgot to add the most important one]. CB monetary policies (QE, bands, interventions, etc). Interest Rates (and interest rates differentials) Inflation Macroeconomic numbers (employment, GDP etc) Risk (short term factors not structural...
It does, thanks. But it brings more questions, if you don't mind answering or referring me to a source.
"

  1. Interest Rates (and interest rates differentials)
  2. Inflation
  3. Macroeconomic numbers (employment, GDP etc)
  4. Risk (short term factors not structural ones)
  5. Correlated markets (equities, commodities etc)
  6. Internal variables of a currency (e.g milk production/dem for NZD, Oil for CAD, etc)
  7. Macro players positioning (CB holding reserves, sovereign funds, etc)
  8. Main options position for international trade related flows.
  9. Major speculators
  10. Dealing desks (just for the micro moves)"

- How can one determine point 4, 7, 8, 9, and 10?
- Is there any source that guides traders how to analyze the effect of points 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6? I read in one of your posts that you actually analyze them on your chart, especially the interest rates and their differentials. Is this an invention that you developed or is it a common analysis used amongst traders?
Sorry to bother you with my questions

  • #971,378
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:11pm Mar 19, 2015 3:11pm
Quoting ws121
{quote} It does, thanks. But it brings more questions, if you don't mind answering or referring me to a source. " Interest Rates (and interest rates differentials) Inflation Macroeconomic numbers (employment, GDP etc) Risk (short term factors not structural ones) Correlated markets (equities, commodities etc) Internal variables of a currency (e.g milk production/dem for NZD, Oil for CAD, etc) Macro players positioning (CB holding reserves, sovereign funds, etc) Main options position for international trade related flows. Major speculators Dealing...
http://www.tradingeconomics.com
  • #971,379
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:12pm Mar 19, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} stops @ BE (1,0620) now The "retrace" has been very lackluster for now, so not willing to risk more
We are still to roll ...but in my books that leg is a +300 tick up leg. Choppy/ slow and whatever but that is the leg in play if it pans out....lets see the roll first ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #971,380
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:13pm Mar 19, 2015 3:13pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Priceless . What doesnt kill you makes you stronger huh?
exactly !
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
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