EURUSD

already viewer with Fed will not change anything, so if it's not a false lead, the EUR USD more UP 1.0770

Remember this "Scared money don't make no money"

Whats your SL if i may ask on that short?

waiting on .0670 for a short. Almost got it a few minutes ago.

Just shorted AU,NU,GU,EU, real small, if they move against me, not taking loss and will add to positions (Yes, I'm that bad) out of all of them I think EU is most likely to go higher.... should be more patient but it's okay...... it will be profitable in a couple of weeks worst case

Fed funds target rate,what happens if it goes up? Will dollars depreciate?

Both will have a high impact

its all worthless right now. its all pending on wording on whether we go up or slip closer to 1.0 area. 0670 is the 3/4 mark to 0687

i m bullish and think it can touch 730 within half hour of fomc

Scratch that. 20 pips is nothing, stop run imminent imo. Expecting it, looking for weakness. Gonna manual the TE on weakness at/under 0680 or pedro's numbers. In for a few shorts on main acct, 1% risk as usual

putting it out there before hand

are u ready for the party ???

sitting on hands. But really want to try and catch the falling knife.

PUMP AND DUMB come come come

Ready to test black hole!!!

Don't know about the FOMC exact outcome, but EUR will go lower after today. Nothing changed, Grexit is back, Draghi is still printing a lot of money, Russia is also making new headlines, Yellen will keep the patient or not.

Are you ready for Short EUR??? go go go!!!!

Looks like US mkt may tank.... although there are bullish indications...... sitting on hands

TO BE [patience] OR NOT TO BE, that is the question.

Clear day in terms of possible scenarios for the FED today.

1. On the fundamental side:

1. The most important factor to watch is the simple word "patience" in the statement. Taken out patience will serve as a confirmation that HIKES are coming this year despite of what some extreme dovish voices say period. if patience stay and FED plays mouse and cat we will almost guarantee also the hikes wouldn't not come until AT least September leaving Q1 2016 still open for the first hikes.
2. The second important factor to track is "INFLATION" and the impact of the last weaker US numbers in the forecast. If FED start strongly linking the hikes with inflation instead of with employment will get a confirmation that HIKES will be very gradual and not in shock waves meaning the pace of the hikes will be start to be defined for the mid term.

1. On the technical side:

1. We are playing timing not direction for this FOMC. A hawkish FED hike confirmation for June [no patience] with no mentioning on anchor inflation targets will trigger the direct leg to parity and bit below. It will make equities, oil and gold sell off and, more importantly for the euro, it will make the dollar rally above +/-100 (DX).
2. A very dovish FED with patience and with anchor with both inflation and latest macro numbers in the US will open one more leg to all time highs in equities and will short circuit oil and gold to complete the dead cat bounce and a final retrace respectively. Dollar will retrace to last break out point for sure making euro a small rally that can last as long as late April without seeing any leg to the downside
3. Finally and the most probable scenario is a more neutral FED. Not taking out "patience" from the statement but strongly hinting to gradual small hikes to come. That will trigger a knee jerk reaction in equities, gold, and oil (they will be caught in the wrong side) and make dollar have a limited pullback and therefore euro rally as high as the 1.08xx handle before starting the leg to parity later.

1. for the actual news flow:

​As widely expected since NFP and the W roll especially, 1.066x became the flip area for the FOMC. 2 Clear scenarios for the flow:

1. A v. hawkish FED with open a direct leg to parity with a straight line target to 1.049x first and if daily close gets taken there is absolutely anything in between unit the 1.00xx handle in a few sessions.
2. However the more probable scenario is a mildly hawkish or slightly dovish FED. This one is aligned intraday with main markets (as mentioned in yesterday post on the close) and it will pay in a two legged swing for the euro. Patience in the statement will open 1.082x with strong intermediate targets at 1.069x and 1.078x making the leg a bit choppy. But the meat comes after when the details of the FOMC gets digested and gradual hikes expectations will get in play to fade 1.082x / 1.078x area for the leg to parity but in a more measurable and technical way than a pure knee jerk reaction.

For those positioned before the FOMC, intraday targets already hit at 1.066x so management is pretty easy as its a fill or kill and reverse on the remaining positions if FED doesn't play as expected ...

GL all

sisse

Anyone remember how was your first FOMC like?

EMA 50 on H4 hit