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Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job

  • #5,081
  • Mar 15, 2015 12:21pm Mar 15, 2015 12:21pm
GbpAud - Decision time
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,082
  • Mar 15, 2015 12:41pm Mar 15, 2015 12:41pm
Not a pair I trade and although it looks bearish I do see some support, albeit a little shaky:
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  • #5,083
  • Mar 15, 2015 1:06pm Mar 15, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting SunTrader
Not a pair I trade and although it looks bearish I do see some support, albeit a little shaky: {image}

You have a point there ST. I was considering those candle lowe as possible support levels. It just says if there is going to be some downside action then there is a lot of work to be done to clear those zones and the fib zones as well. Your RSI is at the low end as well - not as low as the previous bottom but still low. It is one to watch. I just think the gbp punishing might not be done yet. Great chart ST. More please...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,084
  • Mar 15, 2015 1:36pm Mar 15, 2015 1:36pm
AudJpy - my EW perspective
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,085
  • Mar 15, 2015 2:08pm Mar 15, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} You have a point there ST. I was considering those candle lowe as possible support levels. It just says if there is going to be some downside action then there is a lot of work to be done to clear those zones and the fib zones as well. Your RSI is at the low end as well - not as low as the previous bottom but still low. It is one to watch. I just think the gbp punishing might not be done yet. Great chart ST. More please... Olu
I use RSI mainly for trend. Notice I use 60/40 levels not the traditional 70/30.

And for lengths I use 10 for daily (2 weeks), 13 for weekly (1/4 year), and 12 for monthly (or 1 year).

In an uptrend it is bullish if it stays above 40, in a downtrend bearish if it stays below 60, in between 40 and 60 is neutral.

So as you can see RSI dropped the last couple of weeks back below 60 into neutral territory, then attempted to move back above last Tues and failed. Now it is below 40 slightly. So ... probabilities say further down more likely than up.

I'll see what I can do to become more active on your excellent topic.
  • #5,086
  • Mar 15, 2015 2:26pm Mar 15, 2015 2:26pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} I use RSI mainly for trend. Notice I use 60/40 levels not the traditional 70/30. And for lengths I use 10 for daily (2 weeks), 13 for weekly (1/4 year), and 12 for monthly (or 1 year). In an uptrend it is bullish if it stays above 40, in a downtrend bearish if it stays below 60, in between 40 and 60 is neutral. So as you can see RSI dropped the last couple of weeks back below 60 into neutral territory, then attempted to move back above last Tues and failed. Now it is below 40 slightly. So ... probabilities say further down more likely than...
Thanks for your input. Your use of the RSI levels is similar to how I use them in retracements. For example if the RSI(14) on a daily does not go above 60 and then turns over downwards I say the true trend down is re-asserting and I look for selling opportunities. The opposite applies for long trades only the lower RSI(14) level of 40 is used. I will have to look into using different rsi values on different timeframes as you do whether it would improve my trading. I have only ever used RSI(14). There is always room to learn in this business
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,087
  • Mar 15, 2015 2:42pm Mar 15, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Thanks for your input. Your use of the RSI levels is similar to how I use them in retracements. For example if the RSI(14) on a daily does not go above 60 and then turns over downwards I say the true trend down is re-asserting and I look for selling opportunities. The opposite applies for long trades only the lower RSI(14) level of 40 is used. I will have to look into using different rsi values on different timeframes as you do whether it would improve my trading. I have only ever used RSI(14). There is always room to learn in this business...
10, 13 and 12 are only slight variations obviously but they just seem more intuitive for each of the time frames.

Same with using 12 for a 5min chart = 1 hour and 12 again for 1hour chart = 1/2 day and 6 for a 240min chart = 1 day.
  • #5,088
  • Mar 15, 2015 3:35pm Mar 15, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} 10, 13 and 12 are only slight variations obviously but they just seem more intuitive for each of the time frames. Same with using 12 for a 5min chart = 1 hour and 12 again for 1hour chart = 1/2 day and 6 for a 240min chart = 1 day.
Thanks for the pointers ST

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,089
  • Edited Mar 16, 2015 4:38am Mar 15, 2015 5:48pm | Edited Mar 16, 2015 4:38am
Further to GBPAUD a little something I've been messing with trying to project highs and lows:

Possible highs
1.95515
1.94417
1.93720

Possible lows
1.92331
1.91638
1.90947

The current high 1.93756 is just above the 1st projected 1.93720 so if it holds I would expect price to at least get to the 1st projected low 1.92331

Time will tell.
  • #5,090
  • Mar 16, 2015 3:03pm Mar 16, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting SunTrader
Time will tell...
Hi ST

Price rose today proving that that support are was not willing to break yet.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,091
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:20pm Mar 16, 2015 4:20pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi ST Price rose today proving that that support are was not willing to break yet.
Yea I didn't have the time to post it but the weekly is still in an uptrend so I think it will take a lot to break that first support.

Got FOMC statement Wednesday so there might be a lot of movement up/down by then - or not.

The separate daily levels I posted did not offer much in the form of reversal points but the other way I am trying to put them to use is in projected a daily range. And on that note taking the 1st high 1.93720 and 1st low 1.92331 an expected range for today was 0.01389 - the actual range was 0.01432

If projected range was added to the low of the day at 10am NY it projected a high of 1.94156 and actual high was 1.94199 or 0.00043 away.
  • #5,092
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:28pm Mar 16, 2015 4:28pm
GBPAUD
Daily levels for Tuesday

Highs
1.96218
1.95518
1.94819

Lows
1.93426
1.92731
1.92038
  • #5,093
  • Mar 16, 2015 6:28pm Mar 16, 2015 6:28pm
Quoting SunTrader
GBPAUD Daily levels for Tuesday Highs 1.96218 1.95518 1.94819 Lows 1.93426 1.92731 1.92038
how do you get the levels? Pivot points? Couldnt you have used something like ATR(10) for the range as well?
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,094
  • Mar 17, 2015 4:26am Mar 17, 2015 4:26am
Quoting Olu
{quote} how do you get the levels? Pivot points? Couldnt you have used something like ATR(10) for the range as well?
SqRt of previous close.
  • #5,095
  • Mar 17, 2015 7:19am Mar 17, 2015 7:19am
Quoting Olu
{quote} More downside action beginning to show up... {image}
Even more downside...This commodity is being slammed
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,096
  • Mar 17, 2015 7:36am Mar 17, 2015 7:36am
Natural Gas. Something is smelling...
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,097
  • Mar 17, 2015 7:52am Mar 17, 2015 7:52am
Comex Copper
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,098
  • Mar 17, 2015 11:04am Mar 17, 2015 11:04am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Even more downside...This commodity is being slammed {image}
Cocoa:

Just read an article talking about fundamentals. They're looking to sell calls on a rally (bearish trade).
Seasonal pattern(July Cocoa) is in your favor for a move lower.
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  • #5,099
  • Mar 17, 2015 12:54pm Mar 17, 2015 12:54pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Cocoa: Just read an article talking about fundamentals. They're looking to sell calls on a rally (bearish trade). Seasonal pattern(July Cocoa) is in your favor for a move lower. {image}
Thanks for your post Srt. Today price put in a hammer on the daily chart and I was stopped out for a tidy profit. I am looking to get in either higher or as price slides through where I got out. Technically speaking I think there is still more downside to this commodity. Can you provide a link to the fundys you read about cocoa. I am a tech trader bit if the fundys favor a trade nothing but more confidence will result

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,100
  • Mar 17, 2015 12:58pm Mar 17, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} SqRt of previous close.
Square root of previous close? please excuse my ignorance you will have to expand on this

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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