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  • #969,661
  • Mar 16, 2015 3:36pm Mar 16, 2015 3:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}..... i know fomc can give a knee jerk. but after all the dust clears. the rest are still easing, while the usd is at least pat. it may bounce and slow decline. i don't think it will stop the fall after all settles...
It wont.

Parity was unlocked (for an actual realistic tradable swing range) on Friday roll for the swing leg just need the confirmation from the FED for timing thats all.

Either we get the low of the month on Wednesday and the leg to parity for April max May or we get the confirmation on Wednesday and we go for the leg straight away aiming to unlock sub parity levels for the actual hike in June/July...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #969,662
  • Mar 16, 2015 3:43pm Mar 16, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} It wont. Parity was unlocked (for an actual realistic tradable swing range) on Friday roll for the swing leg just need the confirmation from the FED for timing thats all. Either we get the low of the month on Wednesday and the leg to parity for April max May or we get the confirmation on Wednesday and we go for the leg straight away aiming to unlock sub parity levels for the actual hike in June/July... sisse
same here.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #969,663
  • Mar 16, 2015 3:43pm Mar 16, 2015 3:43pm
The EUR/USD climbed to 1.0619 after opening from 1.0484 today and i hope that uptrend continue to the 1.1000 soon.
  • #969,664
  • Edited 3:59pm Mar 16, 2015 3:44pm | Edited 3:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} and what does that have to do with the price of a car being cheaper to build in one place over another because of energy? i dont like the subject so i misdirect it?
if it is only the price of the inputfactor energy, american automotive stocks would have performed. thats not the case. falscification by instance. q.e.d.

https://www.maxblue.de/de/mdata/char...nd=0&hist=frei
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #969,665
  • Mar 16, 2015 3:44pm Mar 16, 2015 3:44pm
Quoting Abdul2012
The EUR/USD climbed to 1.0619 after opening from 1.0484 today and i hope that uptrend continue to the 1.1000 soon.
One can always hope
  • #969,666
  • Mar 16, 2015 3:46pm Mar 16, 2015 3:46pm
Quoting Abdul2012
The EUR/USD climbed to 1.0619 after opening from 1.0484 today and i hope that uptrend continue to the 1.1000 soon.
Keep hoping :-)
  • #969,667
  • Mar 16, 2015 3:48pm Mar 16, 2015 3:48pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} It wont. Parity was unlocked (for an actual realistic tradable swing range) on Friday roll for the swing leg just need the confirmation from the FED for timing thats all. Either we get the low of the month on Wednesday and the leg to parity for April max May or we get the confirmation on Wednesday and we go for the leg straight away aiming to unlock sub parity levels for the actual hike in June/July... sisse
Have you considered that FED won't give a damn about rate hikes until the end of this or even beginning of next year?
It would result in at least one or two months corr move on EU, downward on DAX etc.

Otherwise, yes, parity but it still feels uncertain recently...
  • #969,668
  • Mar 16, 2015 3:52pm Mar 16, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} One word ... Unions.
yep... many heroes..
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #969,669
  • Mar 16, 2015 3:59pm Mar 16, 2015 3:59pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} if it is only the price of the inputfactor energy, american automotive stocks would have performed. thats not the case. falscification by instance. q.e.d.
whatever makes u feel good to fit in your box. this place is paved with many with the same view. if u dont bend, the market dont care
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #969,670
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:03pm Mar 16, 2015 4:03pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} It wont. Parity was unlocked (for an actual realistic tradable swing range) on Friday roll for the swing leg just need the confirmation from the FED for timing thats all. Either we get the low of the month on Wednesday and the leg to parity for April max May or we get the confirmation on Wednesday and we go for the leg straight away aiming to unlock sub parity levels for the actual hike in June/July... sisse
if 0990/91 hold the bounce now. we got a shot.. a catalyst aud and yen tonight/soon may put it in motion
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #969,671
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:04pm Mar 16, 2015 4:04pm
Just for the record, the E/U is NOW in a very supportive area, that was hit in 1991, 1997, 1998 and 2003.
Trade, don't bet.
  • #969,672
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:09pm Mar 16, 2015 4:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} whatever makes u feel good to fit in your box. this place is paved with many with the same view. if u dont bend, the market dont care
relatively weak response. but not surprising: talking about stocks to a fx trader... i donīt care how many have the same view, i just care about performance. good luck...
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #969,673
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:09pm Mar 16, 2015 4:09pm
Quoting KzX
{quote} Have you considered that FED won't give a damn about rate hikes until the end of this or even beginning of next year? It would result in at least one or two months corr move on EU, downward on DAX etc. Otherwise, yes, parity but it still feels uncertain recently...
Thats its exactly what I said in my previous post: (April/May mean a couple of months retrace until the leg to parity...)

Quoting sisse
{quote} Either we get the low of the month on Wednesday and the leg to parity for April max May or we get the confirmation on Wednesday and we go for the leg straight away aiming to unlock sub parity levels for the actual hike in June/July... sisse
...and we rolled. 1.053x naked for the Asian session but the key pre FOMC mover will be triggered in the european session with German numbers so nothing to see till then ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #969,674
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:11pm Mar 16, 2015 4:11pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} It wont. Parity was unlocked (for an actual realistic tradable swing range) on Friday roll for the swing leg just need the confirmation from the FED for timing thats all. Either we get the low of the month on Wednesday and the leg to parity for April max May or we get the confirmation on Wednesday and we go for the leg straight away aiming to unlock sub parity levels for the actual hike in June/July... sisse
In either case Wednesday will set straightforward parity and bellow levels for next several months, as long as speech/minutes deliver what it is asked from them. In such scenario shorts will be served fresh on table, but it might be hard to find solid pullbacks for higher tf traders especially with all pre positioning for June expectation. Could go hard down especially if NFP data is being backed by good results.
  • #969,675
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:13pm Mar 16, 2015 4:13pm
Quoting janpec1000
Pending sell sitting on 632. Small market short here, target 25 pips.
Closed +17. Pending was not triggered though.
  • #969,676
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:21pm Mar 16, 2015 4:21pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} relatively weak response. but not surprising: talking about stocks to a fx trader... i dont care how many have the same view, i just care about performance. good luck...
i hear that..3500 pips down is nothing to a performance trader. i am just a silly ass Forex trader. talking about silly ass forex, on a silly ass forex sight.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #969,677
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:23pm Mar 16, 2015 4:23pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} In either case Wednesday will set straightforward parity and bellow levels for next several months, as long as speech/minutes deliver what it is asked from them. In such scenario shorts will be served fresh on table, but it might be hard to find solid pullbacks for higher tf traders especially with all pre positioning for June expectation. Could go hard down especially if NFP data is being backed by good results.
I have been too long in this business to just underestimate and dismiss the FED (any CB). Moreover underestimating before an actual confirmation the power of bastards to reload higher (i.e squeeze the hell out of smaller traders and investors) especially when every single trader/investor in the whole world already "knows" the final outcome of the pair its just amateurish in my books.

I learnt a long time ago not get caught with the pants down just because everything looks "perfectly, pre defined & aligned" before the actual confirmations...

In the euro, the next major swing legs are not about DIRECTION but about TIMING ...and thats when markets sieve the good from the bad traders....

We'll see how it pans out ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #969,678
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:36pm Mar 16, 2015 4:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i hear that..3500 pips down is nothing to a performance trader. i am just a silly ass Forex trader. talking about silly ass forex, on a silly ass forex sight.
your words, not mine. no need to react this way.
did i say anything about your competence in fx trading? no.
if so, congratulations. but this does not mean that you are automatically right with every argument in any asset class.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #969,679
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:41pm Mar 16, 2015 4:41pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} In the euro, the next major swing legs are not about DIRECTION but about TIMING ...and thats when markets sieve the good from the bad traders.... We'll see how it pans out ... sisse
So true, the difficulty is to make the timming right!!
  • #969,680
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:14pm Mar 16, 2015 5:14pm
My hands are itching To short ...... then i say ok... f this im willing to sacrifice 100 pip drop to be Sure the "patience " is removed.... if dosnt happen it will be a
a hell with a massive sell off USD ... maybe a better place to short with this extreme conditions is hard to any1 to predict the possible resistance lvls.

My trade to day will be: no trades.. until FOMC
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