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EURUSD

  • #969,401
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:47am Mar 16, 2015 4:47am
Quoting honeill
Since the beginning of this year EURUSD has fallen more than 13.20% and is in a strong bearish phase. The pair fell during Fridays session printing a new low at 1.0462 and closed near the low of the day and no hard support in sight. Stochastic is showing an oversold market setting higher lows and price is making lower lows, signs that the downside may begin to get exhausted and ready for pullback.
correction maybe overdue, but do not bet on it....
the thing can continue to fall despite wtever indicators suggesting oversold conditions.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #969,402
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:52am Mar 16, 2015 4:52am
Quoting honeill
Since the beginning of this year EURUSD has fallen more than 13.20% and is in a strong bearish phase. The pair fell during Fridays session printing a new low at 1.0462 and closed near the low of the day and no hard support in sight. Stochastic is showing an oversold market setting higher lows and price is making lower lows, signs that the downside may begin to get exhausted and ready for pullback.
Support stands around 1.038XX.
If we look at the big picture, in this case the monthly bar, we should not expect any significant retrace.
The pair printed a monthly average drop of 7780 pips so far. This is well in range of 10000 pips typical for a month with a very strong sentiment and trend (bullish or bearish). So, we should expect further drop this month. If there's any chance of retracement, before parity, only in April, and still, I see that as limited, because the macro economics, QE, rate hike, surely will push the EU down to parity and below. Some analysts are forecasting the Euro to depreciate to 0.82. Still, early stages... My self I go with the trend, either daily or weekly, and so far, I don't see any signs of reversal or corrections.
Wanting to be someone else is a waste of who you are. - KC.
  • #969,403
  • Mar 16, 2015 4:56am Mar 16, 2015 4:56am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} correction maybe overdue, but do not bet on it.... the thing can continue to fall despite wtever indicators suggesting oversold conditions.
Yep, right. In such strong trends... indicators are useless, specially stochs, macds, rsi, etc. Even if they show overbought/sold conditions, a quick 500 pip pullback to lower the level, will quickly reverse to go another 3000 pip in the direction of the trend.
Wanting to be someone else is a waste of who you are. - KC.
  • #969,404
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:00am Mar 16, 2015 5:00am
The bull trap is strong on this one. Price LOOKS bullish but FEELS bearish.
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  • #969,405
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:03am Mar 16, 2015 5:03am
Guys... its Monday... stop trying to overanalyse the markets....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #969,406
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:08am Mar 16, 2015 5:08am
Entered long on EU from 1.0543.
Let's see...
Wanting to be someone else is a waste of who you are. - KC.
  • #969,407
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:10am Mar 16, 2015 5:10am
Just entered short 1.0544 , SL 1.056, TP 1.05.
Monday is hard, but its worth shorting it, especially on EU.
  • #969,408
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:11am Mar 16, 2015 5:11am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Brent Good bounce that stopped at .447 H4 negative MACD divergence, in theory this move could go to 54.00. Pa currently at .618 H1, important barrier, the lows of yesterday should be taken out too.
BRENT
Price hit target and bounce started, ideally I would be looking at another compounded retracement to 56.23 WPP + .5 Ret H4 , at the opening price breached .5 Ret, we can only get confirmation for continuation after rejection at 55.61 or ultimately at 56.23.
I don't want to see market forming Bullish engulfing on D1 ofc, cause that would indicate possibility for ABCD D1 targeting higher high on same tf.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BRENT H4 VIEW.png Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: BRENT D1.png Size: 49 KB
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  • #969,409
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:13am Mar 16, 2015 5:13am
1.054x right now, eu should technically sell off again soon...
  • #969,410
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:19am Mar 16, 2015 5:19am
i am short bias on this eur usd but need to enter on a retracement level...1.0627
Enter Signature
  • #969,411
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:21am Mar 16, 2015 5:21am
I will repeat myself, but I think we are on corrective wave to 1,08x at least
  • #969,412
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:23am Mar 16, 2015 5:23am
good god already the noise begin where people are predicting shit....
when it means f**k all during monday market...
people calm down pls....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #969,413
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:25am Mar 16, 2015 5:25am
Could be a fakey. But also m15 pin on UJ breaking weekly (Fridays weekly to be precise 121,422 marker still holds).

Europe corrects. Both GBP and Eur getting bought. Asia down - Yen and Aussie. Selling both against king.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
4 USD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DelhLppPSxY
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #969,414
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:27am Mar 16, 2015 5:27am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i think this and i think that, but overall it could end up both this and that... so make sure you do this when that happens but dont do this when that happens. in the end this and that might happen or it might not happen, if this happen, make sure that is what you will do. that is the end, and this is it.... what the f**king f**k??
I'd put money on it you end up trying to charge people for "helping" them sooner or later. That I'm certain of.
  • #969,415
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:28am Mar 16, 2015 5:28am
Quoting fx_rookie
I will repeat myself, but I think we are on corrective wave to 1,08x at least
Was thinking same end of last week, it certainly may happen, and I hope it does
  • #969,416
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:29am Mar 16, 2015 5:29am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I'd put money on it you end up trying to charge people for "helping" them sooner or later. That I'm certain of.
we'll see.
so far im managing fine without charging anyone because i manage a family fund. dont need to charge anything.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #969,417
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:33am Mar 16, 2015 5:33am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} we'll see. so far im managing fine without charging anyone because i manage a family fund. dont need to charge anything.
You may think you are helping them, and I think you do it with good intentions, but really it does more harm than good.

Trading is all about cultivating independent thought. Unless you explain the rationale for each trade very clearly, giving levels and trade signals with SL and TP will be detrimental to traders' development in the long run.

just my 2 cents.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #969,418
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:38am Mar 16, 2015 5:38am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} we'll see. so far im managing fine without charging anyone because i manage a family fund. dont need to charge anything.
Tyrant, for how long have you been managing the fund, if u don't mind me asking?
And is it a 6 digit kind of fund?
Wanting to be someone else is a waste of who you are. - KC.
  • #969,419
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:41am Mar 16, 2015 5:41am
EURUSD
Unlike other pairs, this one doesn't form retracement on H4 (only bounces to .236) or D1 and so I keep looking at Monthly chart for targets and levels that can trigger bounces and potentially reversal. Price is bouncing off 1.0461, 1.27 Extension of Bfly Monthly chart, next level to consider is .786 all time retracement at 0.9916. It was actually Scott who spotted the Bfly and for that thank him.
On the upside I am looking at:

1.0550

1.0677

1.0812

This week we have FOMC and market awaits change in the wording regarding rate hikes, if we get more postponing for that it might trigger significant corrections across the board.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD MONTHLY.png Size: 79 KB
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  • #969,420
  • Mar 16, 2015 5:42am Mar 16, 2015 5:42am
Right now positioned short looking for -1.05 ....... reasoning - h1 chart overbought momentum/bearish volume.
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