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  • #969,181
  • Mar 14, 2015 7:38am Mar 14, 2015 7:38am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} Hi Scott, that same Bfly, extension 1.618 would line up almost perfectly with .786 all time retracement at 0.9916, what do you think? Anyway that 1.27 already provided some reaction at 1.0461. I see the same, nothing at parity, only 0.99, 0.95 and 0.89. Will post update soon. Have a good weekend.
Hi Pedro,

Thank you for the response.
1.046 goes with 89. I have parity. Obvious RBRN, 1/2, can look left. The 78.6 aligns with one below. Just don't like structure.

It was there. Goes with this one.

Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Over thinking, over analyzing, separates the body from the mind. Withering my intuition, leaving opportunities behind. Feed my will to feel this moment, urging me to cross the line. Reaching out to embrace the random. Reaching out to embrace whatever may come. And following our will and whim, we may just go where no one's been. We'll ride the spiral to the end and may just go where no one's been. {image}
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} And thinking some more. So, let's say LC is right and has some more to run. How much more? That first retracement was 88.6. Could it be? I prefer fibs of last swing but tl's are in play. {image}
Look forward to your post.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #969,182
  • Mar 14, 2015 8:09am Mar 14, 2015 8:09am
Quoting fx_rookie
{quote} I disagree. There are a lot of examples when a squeeze come out of the blue. I have a different view and approach in trading than what is teaching us in the books. Historically speaking we are making a precedent with this so long one way move, without a correction in EURUSD. As a matter of fact even in JPY pairs we have not seen such market behaviour. If we see one more strong push to the downside it shoud be considered as a buying opportunity.
you can think what you want to think...
honestly ive learned enough not to bet against the market and right now market is selling the EURUSD...
if it were any other market like US equities for example then yes i agree you can easily buy any dips... but only because US equities market has been in a uptrend since forever....
but forex market is a different ballgame, i been in the business long enough to learn about it and make sure i dont do the mistake of betting against the market, sticking my hands out trying to catch the falling knife....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #969,183
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:44am Mar 14, 2015 9:44am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} you can think what you want to think... honestly ive learned enough not to bet against the market and right now market is selling the EURUSD... if it were any other market like US equities for example then yes i agree you can easily buy any dips... but only because US equities market has been in a uptrend since forever.... but forex market is a different ballgame, i been in the business long enough to learn about it and make sure i dont do the mistake of betting against the market, sticking my hands out trying to catch the falling knife....
i sent u pm yesterday to ask something. im following your eu short at 1.0630 and doing quite well
anw, heres the question: how are you determine the 1.0630? i heard u are using the daily candle as the main judgement for open position.
fundamental side, we agree eu is really really in bear trend so yes, you are selling dips. psych level more looks like 1.04, 1.05, 1.055, 1.06 etc
but, how are u measure the technical and come to 1.0630? why not 1.0650? or 1.0670? (aside from freedom of price level chosen) lol

edit: same question to the NZDUSD, which you sold at 0.7404, why not 0.74 sharp? or 0.7408? ----> (aside from freedom of price level chosen)
  • #969,184
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:54am Mar 14, 2015 9:54am
AUDUSD & EURAUD
Possibility for ABCD + Bfly Sell H4, in this case extension 1.618 is in agreement with .707 Ret D1 at 0.7804
If you have a Bear view of this market that's the best R:R to short it, if you scalp against it, the .786 Ret H4 is the lower limit, breaking down here would probably mean move to 0.7450.
On D1 price bounced from 1.27 Ext last swing and shows positive MACD Divergence which doesn't show on H4 and it is something I like to see along with reversal candles.
On NZDUSD H4 there is a reversal swing and test of 0.7287 could pretty much determine direction for next move.

If the AUDUSD setup works it is probable that EURAUD will land at 1.3400, that is 1.618 Ext D1 and that is good location for bounce before next leg down to 1.2700 mark (as long we don't get any reversal swing) , price currently at 1.27 Extension D1 and so far only long candles with no wicks.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 Bfly Sell.png Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD D1 ABCD.png Size: 42 KB
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #969,185
  • Mar 14, 2015 10:22am Mar 14, 2015 10:22am
GOOD GOD!
I normally trade commodities on FX but I just had to catch so of this EURUSD action!
I absoultely cant believe how many scalpers there are! I consider anyone who targets 200 pips or less a scalper.
Most suprised by how many people there are who actually try and go bull on this market! It has been continuously crashing since MAY LAST YEAR!
...hey...
if you can buy this market and make money, my hat goes off to you and your crystal ball!
  • #969,186
  • Mar 14, 2015 10:43am Mar 14, 2015 10:43am
Quoting pedro319
AUDUSD & EURAUD Possibility for ABCD + Bfly Sell H4, in this case extension 1.618 is in agreement with .707 Ret D1 at 0.7804 If you have a Bear view of this market that's the best R:R to short it, if you scalp against it, the .786 Ret H4 is the lower limit, breaking down here would probably mean move to 0.7450. On D1 price bounced from 1.27 Ext last swing and shows positive MACD Divergence which doesn't show on H4 and it is something I like to see along with reversal candles. On NZDUSD H4 there is a reversal swing and test of 0.7287 could pretty...
watch USDCAD recently, Pedro?
H4 and D1 bear butterfly pattern almost formed maximum price at 1.2840 for the short one + DR2
another sell butterfly at 1.2931 near the DR3. am i doing it right? thank you
  • #969,187
  • Mar 14, 2015 11:05am Mar 14, 2015 11:05am
EUR/USD hasnt reached his bottom. I see a down trend towards 1.0330 coming in the next week.
Alhamdulillah
  • #969,188
  • Mar 14, 2015 11:38am Mar 14, 2015 11:38am
Quoting Sants
{quote} watch USDCAD recently, Pedro? H4 and D1 bear butterfly pattern almost formed maximum price at 1.2840 for the short one + DR2 another sell butterfly at 1.2931 near the DR3. am i doing it right? thank you
I don't like the structure and daily candles at the top, price is breaking daily resistance. The pattern is there but I like to see the candle that hits extension become reversal candle, you can see that yearly R3 at 1.3079 is strong natural resistance on monthly. Also would like to see confluence with Weekly Fibonacci level for example, in this case 1.3079 would be 3.618 Extension from retracement last year, there is potential for mega Bfly on Monthly with those 2 bottoms if you zoom out. I guess much of that setup will depend on Oil. Hope I explained myself clear.
Check next on Brent update.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #969,189
  • Mar 14, 2015 11:51am Mar 14, 2015 11:51am
Hi,

I am

Long EU @ 1.0480 (Friday); SL @ 1.0450; TP @ 1.0585

RR 1:3

I speculate on a Monday Inside Bar (Daily TF) with a high on the Thursday Candle MID.

Have a nice weekend!
Muni loves you all!
  • #969,190
  • Mar 14, 2015 12:49pm Mar 14, 2015 12:49pm
does anyone know what caused the reversal of the upward trend in July 2012?
Enter Signature
  • #969,191
  • Mar 14, 2015 1:18pm Mar 14, 2015 1:18pm
Hi everyone,

I want to ask if anybody that trades with FXDD had a problem with the CHF situation that happened in January.

Thanks in advance,
Thirsty
KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON SHORTING
  • #969,192
  • Mar 14, 2015 3:39pm Mar 14, 2015 3:39pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bez tytułu.jpg Size: 121 KB


time to lower low against an increase in
Enter Signature
  • #969,193
  • Mar 14, 2015 5:41pm Mar 14, 2015 5:41pm
Quoting Thirsty
Hi everyone, I want to ask if anybody that trades with FXDD had a problem with the CHF situation that happened in January. Thanks in advance, Thirsty
Hi,

I did not have any problem with CHF trades but I had issues with another pair with a Broker from Australia. The amount of of loss was around 400 $. Broker delayed proper response to me and after 50 days they said they filled right price at the market conditions and so they will not compensate the loss of 400 $.

Though I had other options to take up the matter to next level, I decided not to do. But I informed them I am closing a/c with them due to these reasons and close my a/c.

There are street Brokers in this market and if we trade with them we have to bear the losses.

I decided to move on with another broker and now with other two brokers.

If your loss is big, pl. check with other fellow traders and they may help you. I just wanted to share my experience. I had traded with FXDD three years ago and stopped with them long back.

Take care.
Intraday only.
  • #969,194
  • Mar 14, 2015 9:12pm Mar 14, 2015 9:12pm
how about usd stronger every day?
how long dollar weak?
maybe have critical in usa?
  • #969,195
  • Mar 14, 2015 11:52pm Mar 14, 2015 11:52pm
Hi. I was just wondering if anyone else's systems have improved over the past two weeks?

While the EU was stuck in that terrible 4hr/daily range during February my system struggled a little. I made a slight change and these last two weeks have being pretty good. I suspected and posted my thoughts at the time that while the EU was stuck in the range it was causing stagnation to the whole market regardless of what pair. Now the pair has had the BO, trends (st or lt) seem to be more reliable with more consistent Order Flow.

Now I am left with a little dilemma in that I'm unsure if it was the slight change of my system that I made or the changing market that brought it back into being profitable. Any comments welcomed.

Now looking forward to the Grexit soap opera to begin again...
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #969,196
  • Edited 12:47am Mar 15, 2015 12:11am | Edited 12:47am
Quoting navk
{quote} I never did such gambling but yes, this time I am also with you I also placed a short at that level. Anyways, Monday will be bearish, may be NY / London may retrace. Wish you the best, wish me too.
Sup navk ~ for me the strategy is due to the gap closing itself out: 85% of the time it retraces to minimum 50% of the gap. So looking at a 1 day chart over last month I see the trend, place trade in trend right before market closes Fri. Sunday 5 pm Est, if it gapped against the trend, I put in another trade same size, because it will likely reclose the gap atleast 50%, break even. What you think?
  • #969,197
  • Mar 15, 2015 1:06am Mar 15, 2015 1:06am
though 1 leg below 1.0563 towards 1.400 or low very likely if to stop this very strong bear ( as of higher TF ) for any reversal attempt ,still just watching for it at this low ( in lower tf -the heart for all) .
fontu
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post8137076
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.png Size: 37 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #969,198
  • Mar 15, 2015 1:33am Mar 15, 2015 1:33am
Haha someone spat the dummy?


http://www.forexfactory.com/ashff
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dummy spit.JPG Size: 177 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #969,199
  • Mar 15, 2015 1:54am Mar 15, 2015 1:54am
Quoting Sants
{quote} i sent u pm yesterday to ask something. im following your eu short at 1.0630 and doing quite well anw, heres the question: how are you determine the 1.0630? i heard u are using the daily candle as the main judgement for open position. fundamental side, we agree eu is really really in bear trend so yes, you are selling dips. psych level more looks like 1.04, 1.05, 1.055, 1.06 etc but, how are u measure the technical and come to 1.0630? why not 1.0650? or 1.0670? (aside from freedom of price level chosen) lol edit: same question to the NZDUSD,...
the reason why i placed order at 1.0630 is because i believe eurusd would test 1.06, but when psych leveled round numbers like 1.06 gets tested, there tends to be an over flow.... thats why i placec orders 10-30 pips above a specifically important level like 1.06...
now why not 1.0650?? because 1.0650 is a half psych.....
1.0670, well if i think 1.0650 was the strong psych resistance. then my expectation of an overflow adds 10-20 pips above t makes it 1.0670 pending short...
but nah 1.06 was the important psych resistance i was eyeing for....

anyways..... as for NZDUSD. NZDUSD is not a familiar pair of mine, so i wouldnt take the risk of missing the trade opportunity to place it right on the spot at 0.74....
problem with why it got triggered at 0.7404 and not 0.7400 sharp... was because im not sure if you're aware... sometimes i trade on my mobile and i placed the order at 74.....
74 is not possible on the NZDUSD, i meant to place at 0.74, thankfully some traders alerted me of my mistake, and i immediately placed a market order to trade as soon as possible when 0.74 was hit.... this time it worked to my advantage as i got 4 more pips then originally planned...

i hope that explains everything....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #969,200
  • Mar 15, 2015 2:06am Mar 15, 2015 2:06am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} the reason why i placed order at 1.0630 is because i believe eurusd would test 1.06, but when psych leveled round numbers like 1.06 gets tested, there tends to be an over flow.... thats why i placec orders 10-30 pips above a specifically important level like 1.06... now why not 1.0650?? because 1.0650 is a half psych..... 1.0670, well if i think 1.0650 was the strong psych resistance. then my expectation of an overflow adds 10-20 pips above t makes it 1.0670 pending short... but nah 1.06 was the important psych resistance i was eyeing for....
Does this mean You would consider shorting again at say 1.0520 since the downtrend is technically and fundamentally intact? Or would You let this pass since the risk:reward is not so good?
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