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  • #969,021
  • Mar 13, 2015 11:50am Mar 13, 2015 11:50am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Interesting scenario possibly developing - a HH in to 720's than reversal right in to rate hike hint, than knee-jerk towards 0150's and bull reversal afterwards. If HH is not on the table - 350's (and a bit bellow) will get visited after which some major hesitation/rejection will fallow. For a buying after the fact movement they need a risk limit ( a meaningful high) against which longs will play and roundabouts of 1.07 seems ideal.
Latest US reports were relatively poor but the big ones including NFP were superb. Bastards are betting on a done deal confirmation with the hikes for this FED meeting so yes I see that 1.070x handle as and option for a pump pre news.

However, we can go a lot higher (the 1.07xx handle is empty on the TA side) on the knee jerk reaction if FED decide to play cat and mouse for another month. Everybody is pretty much v.well positioned for the opposite move and a surprise "no hike yet hint" will trigger lots of the tight stops of profit taking knowing that they can reload a lot higher ....to the other side, well its obvious for even the most sluggish trader, that the leg is the one to parity ...

We'll see but for now the roll first to get the earliest hint on what to expect next week for the FOMC.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #969,022
  • Mar 13, 2015 11:52am Mar 13, 2015 11:52am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Latest US reports were relatively poor but the big ones including NFP were superb. Bastards are betting on a done deal confirmation with the hikes for this FED meeting so yes I see that 1.070x handle as and option for a pump pre news. However, we can go a lot higher (the 1.07xx handle is empty on the TA side) on the knee jerk reaction if FED decide to play cat and mouse for another month. Everybody is pretty much v.well positioned for the opposite move and a surprise "no hike yet hint" will trigger lots of the tight stops of profit taking...
By "this" Fed meeting you mean March?
  • #969,023
  • Mar 13, 2015 11:55am Mar 13, 2015 11:55am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Latest US reports were relatively poor but the big ones including NFP were superb. Bastards are betting on a done deal confirmation with the hikes for this FED meeting so yes I see that 1.070x handle as and option for a pump pre news. However, we can go a lot higher (the 1.07xx handle is empty on the TA side) on the knee jerk reaction if FED decide to play cat and mouse for another month. Everybody is pretty much v.well positioned for the opposite move and a surprise "no hike yet hint" will trigger lots of the tight stops of profit taking...
Superb analysis fundamentally sissee. Taken it.
Intraday only.
  • #969,024
  • Mar 13, 2015 11:56am Mar 13, 2015 11:56am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} By "this" Fed meeting you mean March?
Next week Wednesday.
Intraday only.
  • #969,025
  • Mar 13, 2015 11:56am Mar 13, 2015 11:56am
u chf just hit its 1.0041 norm +... it could be headed to 0113 HH
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #969,026
  • Mar 13, 2015 11:59am Mar 13, 2015 11:59am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} By "this" Fed meeting you mean March?
yes...not the hike but the confirmation of hikes for june/july... in hikes we always trade expectations first and then the actual hikes... parity is lock until then...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #969,027
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:00pm Mar 13, 2015 12:00pm
Quoting fxtyrant
PS. AUDUSD 0.5?? food for thought...
Short at .7683
  • #969,028
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:06pm Mar 13, 2015 12:06pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Latest US reports were relatively poor but the big ones including NFP were superb. Bastards are betting on a done deal confirmation with the hikes for this FED meeting so yes I see that 1.070x handle as and option for a pump pre news. However, we can go a lot higher (the 1.07xx handle is empty on the TA side) e
It will become very meaningful as pre-FOMC highs
I have there a mindpoint in between 0.82 and 1.3220's
69
  • #969,029
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:07pm Mar 13, 2015 12:07pm
EURUSD
Move to 1.0450 still possible.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #969,030
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:07pm Mar 13, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} yes...not the hike but the confirmation of hikes for june/july... in hikes we always trade expectations first and then the actual hikes... parity is lock until then... sisse
4h left..last one could not hold 0525
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #969,031
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:08pm Mar 13, 2015 12:08pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Latest US reports were relatively poor but the big ones including NFP were superb. Bastards are betting on a done deal confirmation with the hikes for this FED meeting so yes I see that 1.070x handle as and option for a pump pre news. However, we can go a lot higher (the 1.07xx handle is empty on the TA side) on the knee jerk reaction if FED decide to play cat and mouse for another month. Everybody is pretty much v.well positioned for the opposite move and a surprise "no hike yet hint" will trigger lots of the tight stops of profit taking...

People are very divided in how good the NFP report was although it looked good. Part time worker are counted as full time workers and houerly earnings plunged most as i 8 years. In addition to that bad figures are coming every day from the US


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-least-8-years

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...orld-recession

In adition to that the loans in US will make problems for all new growing countries who has their debt in USD.

It will not be an rate hike
  • #969,032
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:11pm Mar 13, 2015 12:11pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} yes...not the hike but the confirmation of hikes for june/july... in hikes we always trade expectations first and then the actual hikes... parity is lock until then... sisse
Looking forward to listen to Peter Schiff show for him to decompile and find counter-reasons of FED explanations for hike then. Lately he is doing superb job at being wrong at everything i am sure he will find reason why FED will not hike rates even if next "confirmation" comes. Wierldy though i still listen to his shows becouse even though many or lately even most of things he says are wrong, its worth listening for some good points in it heh.
  • #969,033
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:13pm Mar 13, 2015 12:13pm
Quoting sclipp
So I wouldn't call it "worship", just "appreciation", and I wouldn't call myself an "idiot" as I have a degree in Science.
Dear mother. It was not meant as an offence to you, as I am generally just speaking rude. Is nothing personal.

However, please consider this: You have a degree in Science, so you have prolly studied it about 7 years or so? So you are a pro scientist, you know your stuff. Would you recommend someone to mix dangerous chemicals you have been studying for so long, although you know that guy has no experience? You know how to mix it. Those idiots dont. Thats all.

Either way, is Friday and I am actually a) young b) rich.

Wee, am off for party.

Good luck all, Tom
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #969,034
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:13pm Mar 13, 2015 12:13pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} People are very divided in how good the NFP report was although it looked good. Part time worker are counted as full time workers and houerly earnings plunged most as i 8 years. In addition to that bad figures are coming every day from the US http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-least-8-years http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...orld-recession In adition to that the loans in US will make problems for...
Marianne NFP numbers smell full of shit, anyone doing deep research into them knows that. But for trader that is not what matters. If FED wants you to see good numbers you have to believe in them, becouse their policy will come from it. There are things when your rationality is counter-productive. By that obviously its always good to know the proper true situation, but just pointing out that fake numbers wont change monetary courses at least not in short term.
  • #969,035
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:13pm Mar 13, 2015 12:13pm
Wow, I'm amazed what I've been reading.
Before London open I read these to statements which I will paraphrase:

  1. My TP is 1.05 (posted by two traders). That TP was hit.
  2. Watch out for the London rally. I don't know how you learn about that sort of thing beyond experience, but sure enough, there was a rally for the next two hours after the open

I hope one day I get to the point where I can make calls like these. Right now I have no idea where these ideas came from, I only know they were right! Many pips to you all!

Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #969,036
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:14pm Mar 13, 2015 12:14pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} People are very divided in how good the NFP report was although it looked good. Part time worker are counted as full time workers and houerly earnings plunged most as i 8 years. In addition to that bad figures are coming every day from the US http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-least-8-years http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...orld-recession In adition to that the loans in US will make problems for...
what does that matter? see the eu? it made a LL a few hours ago.. we trade reaction, not what we think should happen. especially after price tells us we are wrong.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #969,037
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:14pm Mar 13, 2015 12:14pm
Fed, Yellen speech last Feb 24, 2015 :

In sum, there has been important progress toward the FOMC's objective of maximum employment. However, despite this improvement, too many Americans remain unemployed or underemployed, wage growth is still sluggish, and inflation remains well below our longer-run objective. As always, the Federal Reserve remains committed to employing its tools to best promote the attainment of its objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
Intraday only.
  • #969,038
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:16pm Mar 13, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Marianne NFP numbers smell full of shit, anyone doing deep research into them knows that. But for trader that is not what matters. If FED wants you to see good numbers you have to believe in them, becouse their policy will come from it. There are things when your rationality is counter-productive. By that obviously its always good to know the proper true situation, but just pointing out that fake numbers wont change monetary courses at least not in short term.
Agree wih you but the fudamentals will winn in the end.
  • #969,039
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:18pm Mar 13, 2015 12:18pm
I am not optimistic about a rate hike that soon. Maybe the end of the year. I think the FED is beholden to the current political leadership. A rate hike, although long overdue and necessary, will cause temporary pain. That might endanger re-election chances next year.

The average American will not understand that a positive interest rate is good for their savings, because they have no savings, just debt. Money has to stay cheap so the sheep can stay happy.
  • #969,040
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:19pm Mar 13, 2015 12:19pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Agree wih you but the fudamentals will winn in the end.
sure they will win.. maybe they already are. its just u may be choosing the wrong fundamentals
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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