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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #281
  • Mar 11, 2015 12:46pm Mar 11, 2015 12:46pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

AU Number of employed
AU Employment Change

On poor head Aussie now fallen more: Dollar presses, presses a New Zealander, RBA presses, presses inflation - we see the AUDUSD to six-year low, which, however, on the one hand, can not but rejoice export-oriented country, the other side - the reason for this decline ...
In addition, the index of business confidence, according to the National Australia Bank, fell to zero. In this case, markets expect this year two more interest rate cuts.
Recall that in February 2015, the RBA cut interest rates to a new historic low of 2.25%. Decrease occurred with the rhetoric that makes markets expect re decline in the coming months.
The labor market in Australia poor. Unemployment rose to 13 year high, which in principle reflects all attempts to "support" from the RBA. On the face, the benefits in the worst case scenario at the time of publication AU Employment Change and AU Unemployment Rate. Both indicators can cause conflict in the time of release.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #282
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:08pm Mar 11, 2015 3:08pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #283
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:16pm Mar 11, 2015 3:16pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #284
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:35pm Mar 11, 2015 3:35pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #285
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:36pm Mar 11, 2015 7:36pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #286
  • Mar 12, 2015 12:08am Mar 12, 2015 12:08am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Why NZD rose in the evening on March 11.


The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged at 3.5%, as expected, since only 2 of 16 analysts Bloomberg relied on its decline. At the same protocols remained virtually unchanged, in that case made NZD rising 100 points in 5 minutes?
All the matter in the press conference, which gave the manager Wheeler: The situation in New Zealand is different from that of other countries, which reduces interest rates.
"I am satisfied with the current level of NZDUSD», - said Wheeler.
It would seem so simple, but these two sentences were the first provocateurs pair rises after a small jump in the protocols.
But it is necessary to be quite careful in the future, among other things, significantly revised the RBNZ inflation expectations: CPI forecast for the end of 2015 was reduced from 1.5% to 0.4% per annum, which is essential, and the overall fundamental picture is further questions . It would be nice to see more on the quarterly GDP, and then a couple gainer and all looks awkward (to the extent of its power).
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #287
  • Mar 12, 2015 12:23am Mar 12, 2015 12:23am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

The EUR has lost 10% since January, after a hint of QE Central Bank.


You already know that markets expect the Fed to destroy the word "patience" in the minutes of the next week, and you already know that the ECB QE launched on March 9 and you can already see the course EURUSD 1,05. We will live with you in the era of 1 $ = 1 €? It's almost live, and if "patience" fly away, and it is not surprising at all.

Market expectations of interest rate hikes in the US now stand on "mid-2015" and even Christine Lagarde (IMF) today announced that "the Fed is expected to return to a more traditional monetary policy." A German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that such a low rate that was established is now helping improve the competitiveness of the euro area in the world market.

Martin Weale (Bank of England) is traditionally hawkish in the nest: I would have preferred an earlier interest rate increase, there is a risk reduction of sterling, which could trigger additional push inflation.
UK industrial production in negative territory: Manufacturing Production -0.5% vs. 0.2%; Industrial Production -0.1% vs. 0.2%
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #288
  • Mar 12, 2015 11:54am Mar 12, 2015 11:54am
Friday
14:30
13/03/15
2 comments1 new comments
CA Number of employed GOOD
(CA Employment Change), Canada, USDCAD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
40% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #289
  • Mar 12, 2015 12:13pm Mar 12, 2015 12:13pm
In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to varying degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
CA Number of employed
Almost always left behind the indicator Non-Farm Employment Change from the US, thoroughly evaluate its statistics very hard.
Date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her prognosis (Employment Change)
Deviation from the fact that the news of her prognosis (Unemployment Rate)
Reaction trading pairs in paragraphs
Comments
01/09/2015 0 48 -19.3 spike and sharp pullback EURCAD opposite reaction but then rolled back toward release.
12/05/2014 -10.7 0 Top 15 and 32 down EURCAD
07/11/2014 48 -0.3 43-50 EURCAD - pair falling
10/10/2014 54.1 -0.2 50 EURCAD pair falling
09.05.2014 -21 0 36 EURCAD the pair
08/08/2014 -19.8 0 48 Height couples
07/11/2014 -29.4 0.1 25 Height couples
09.05.2014 -42 0.1 45-63 Full growth of 60 n. 45 n roll back to.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #290
  • Edited 10:53am Mar 13, 2015 10:26am | Edited 10:53am
We have investigated your orders.
Order 28457073 MT4 account 2096570742 was a Buy Stop order at 95,406
Order 28456898 MT4 account 2096579228 was a Buy Stop order at 95,406

Buy Stop order as all Buy orders are executed by Ask price. Inside the platform you can see only Bid price, to get the Ask price you need to take Bid price and add the spread.

Your orders were executed during market news release. On the screenshot you can see actual prices that were effective at thouse seconds when your Buy Stop orders were triggered and filled with negative slippage at 95,411 - that was the actual Ask price and Buy orders are always executed by Ask price.
https://mail.naver.com/read/image/or...jgfc.png&org=1
Best regards,

slippage 10pips causes Whipsaw and lost money & Freeze
so they had a flag to me. lost all money.
  • #291
  • Mar 13, 2015 11:58am Mar 13, 2015 11:58am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Passion week: fracture of expectations from the Fed and RBNZ.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's heritage on volumetric graph New Zealander, Australia clearly demonstrates three reasons for which can be reduced interest rate markets in anticipation of the Fed meeting on March 18 and the ECB finally give birth incentive program, called QE.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand turned market expectations for a while
You already know that the New Zealand interest rate remained at 3.5%, the Central Bank gave managing parallel markets such comments that have made sufficient changes in market expectations. Thus, the emphasis on "expected interest rate cut" was moved from the "immediate prospects" for almost "never". To be precise, it will formulate as follows: "If the interest rate not lower at the end of this year, it definitely will increase in 2016". Absurdity, a play on words? It is, in fact here, and violent reaction NZD, which we would call somewhat inadequate, as the words of the control RBNZ Wheeler were taken very tough, but by and large he had a "hard" said.

Passions around the upcoming Fed meeting is heating up to the limit
After the publication of positive data peyrolsov American markets certainly have gone mad, which is not surprising, because next week, March 18, will be held on the publication of the interest rate.

But more specifically, the markets now are not interested in the rate and protocol text Fed. Remember that Janet Yellen warned: "Talk about raising the interest rate can be after when we remove from the minutes of the word" patience. "
Fed Chairman knowingly made such a hint. Any changes in the monetary policy of central banks are accompanied by either panic or excessive euphoria, resulting in excessive volatility, which can bring a part of the system of market institutions that "not good" (and we already know these stories *). The Fed needs to prepare the way for turning monetary policy otherwise many have passed through the maneuver and will "eat earth in a ditch."
This week we have heard a number of statements: Fisher (I am sure that the head of the Fed Yellen will not wait too long before you raise rates), Bullard (necessary to raise rates "now or soon"), Lagarde (Fed is expected to return to a more traditional monetary policy), Mester (Fed is likely to raise rates in the first half). All of them can be a call to action, and are aimed at smoothing the reaction of markets - data impregnated prices now rather than at the time of the event.
We are waiting for the Fed's FOMC meeting next week
ECB QE program materialized
Incentive program from the ECB, as we promised, was launched this week, March 9. Planned infusion of additional 1 trillion euros into the economy. End of program, pre-September 2016, when inflation reaches 2% level - the program will continue. At the moment, the annual inflation rate is 0.3%.


Traditionally, Mario Draghi sings the praises of the program, and the Bundesbank continues to broadcast the skeptic in her attitude. Our business with you observe and monitor, and suddenly the ECB will need to expand the program, or roll it ahead of time?
Markets do not exclude the Australian interest rate reduction this year
In early February, the RBA has cut interest rates, but analysts do not rule out additional monetary easing. The reason for the intensification of such expectations becomes China, which is losing ground faster than expected, and there is talk of the need for additional stimulus and the Chinese economy.
Citigroup has previously published information that may RBA underestimates prospects slowdown in China, and, accordingly, does not fully take into account the implications for commodity prices.
What is interesting, the Australian already fell against the dollar, and the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to warn that the Australian dollar is overvalued. We have identified three main factors that can trigger a further decline in interest rates: slowing growth, higher unemployment and falling commodity prices.
Fresh unemployment publication this Thursday declined by 0.1% to 6.3%
Commodity prices are worrying.
The fourth quarter of 2014 for Australia brought only 0.5% growth according to the quarterly GDP estimates, but it is a lagging indicator.
Aussie remains sensitive to the statistics.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #292
  • Mar 14, 2015 12:19am Mar 14, 2015 12:19am
Tuesday
12:00
17/03/15
EU German ZEW
(EU German ZEW Economic Sentiment), EU, EURUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #293
  • Mar 14, 2015 12:37am Mar 14, 2015 12:37am
Quoting vvFish
Tuesday 12:00 17/03/15 EU German ZEW (EU German ZEW Economic Sentiment), EU, EURUSD Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release. 10% probability trades.
Dear VVFISH
Could you help in setting up the trade during this and other news? Like what pending order to be placed with what SL and TP?
Looking forward to hear from you.
  • #294
  • Mar 14, 2015 12:45am Mar 14, 2015 12:45am
Quoting anuj20jain
{quote} Dear VVFISH Could you help in setting up the trade during this and other news? Like what pending order to be placed with what SL and TP? Looking forward to hear from you.
I'm sorry, my friend, but I do not use now in trade stop.
I enter the market with a market order stop short of 10 points or not use it at all (when confident transaction is 100%).
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #295
  • Mar 14, 2015 12:53am Mar 14, 2015 12:53am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} I'm sorry, my friend, but I do not use now in trade stop. I enter the market with a market order stop short of 10 points or not use it at all (when confident transaction is 100%).
Ok Thanks. Would look forward to hear about your trade if any.
  • #296
  • Mar 14, 2015 1:15am Mar 14, 2015 1:15am
Quoting anuj20jain
{quote} Ok Thanks. Would look forward to hear about your trade if any.
All the news of the transaction they are good or bad, I publish to you here.
Lately, I've improved its performance in trade by almost 80%.
You can compare the deals that were made earlier and published back in the old branch, where I used to enter the market news adviser or stop.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...493948&page=31
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #297
  • Mar 14, 2015 1:41am Mar 14, 2015 1:41am
Would like to learn from you.
  • #298
  • Mar 16, 2015 10:33am Mar 16, 2015 10:33am
VVFish, which news calender do you use? I am using the one on forex factory and it leaves out the smaller economies, like Norway
  • #299
  • Mar 16, 2015 11:48am Mar 16, 2015 11:48am
Quoting johNal
VVFish, which news calender do you use? I am using the one on forex factory and it leaves out the smaller economies, like Norway
Stay with us and you'll learn about all the economic news.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #300
  • Mar 17, 2015 5:05am Mar 17, 2015 5:05am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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