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  • #967,881
  • Mar 11, 2015 5:56pm Mar 11, 2015 5:56pm
Haven't been able to get crap filled on intraday bounces to the .764 Fib line for the previous day's high/low since this week's opening ... . May get a shot at a EUR/GBP short on the back of Cable weakness, but that's nothing to cheer about ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #967,882
  • Mar 11, 2015 6:10pm Mar 11, 2015 6:10pm
You guys gonna sell me some euros at 1.05?
  • #967,883
  • Mar 11, 2015 6:27pm Mar 11, 2015 6:27pm
want to buy? looking for another pair with bullish trend
simple
  • #967,884
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:05pm Mar 11, 2015 7:05pm
Standard procedure. I go away and market waits. Tokyo opens, UJ rocks.

Nikkei has a lot of work to reach highs. Aud data inc 30 mins.

Am UJ overload.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,885
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:08pm Mar 11, 2015 7:08pm
UJ perhaps trying to get back up to 121.8 to retest that resistance?
  • #967,886
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:11pm Mar 11, 2015 7:11pm
if this is the magical bottom, 1.05 theres not a very convincing reaction, i.e 200 - 200 pip bounce yet... you know, big institutional investors blah blah blah
  • #967,887
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:12pm Mar 11, 2015 7:12pm
Quoting takari
UJ perhaps trying to get back up to 121.8 to retest that resistance?
Aud data could spoil fun in 20 mins, but otherwise looking good.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,888
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:14pm Mar 11, 2015 7:14pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Aud data could spoil fun in 20 mins, but otherwise looking good.
What would be the effect of the AUD on the JPY. I assume the two generally positively correlate... am I correct?
  • #967,889
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:14pm Mar 11, 2015 7:14pm
there is a big fundamental cycle shift going on...if the U.S. does indeed hike rates it's going to be years before the euro catches a decent bid eg like the 1.30+ days
Time waits for no one
  • #967,890
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:16pm Mar 11, 2015 7:16pm
Quoting pipsonayacht
there is a big fundamental cycle shift going on...if the U.S. does indeed hike rates it's going to be years before the euro catches a decent bid eg like the 1.30+ days
The fed can raise rates by .000001 if they wanted to to meet this criteria.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #967,891
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:16pm Mar 11, 2015 7:16pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} The fed can raise rates by .000001 if they wanted to to meet this criteria.
I don't know if a trip that small counts as a hike. Probably not even a walk. More like a hop.
  • #967,892
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:20pm Mar 11, 2015 7:20pm
Quoting takari
{quote} I don't know if a trip that small counts as a hike. Probably not even a walk. More like a hop.
In the context of this USD rally...please quantify the verbage.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #967,893
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:21pm Mar 11, 2015 7:21pm
Quoting takari
{quote} What would be the effect of the AUD on the JPY. I assume the two generally positively correlate... am I correct?
Well yeah, there is positive correlation, but is hard to catch flows. I have burned myself on Aussie data like 2 times during February, but all were Aussie trades, not JPY. No matter data, always resulted in Aud buy :/. So could pull USD to correct, and trigger UJ correction. Thats one flow. But there are two other flows: Main is USD king rocks all over the place. Very hard to stop it. Second is Japan stocks. Should data be bad, stocks correct and is yet again correction on UJ.

All that beeing said, think main flows for UJ now - USD strength and Nikeei. Hard to stop USD, so I will be watching Nikkei reaction to data release. Am hoping data will meet expectations, so natural flows will remain in place and I dont need to newstrade. I dont like that. Should data be good, I just hold my longs.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,894
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:23pm Mar 11, 2015 7:23pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Well yeah, there is positive correlation, but is hard to catch flows. I have burned myself on Aussie data like 2 times during February, but all were Aussie trades, not JPY. No matter data, always resulted in Aud buy :/. So could pull USD to correct, and trigger UJ correction. Thats one flow. But there are two other flows: Main is USD king rocks all over the place. Very hard to stop it. Second is Japan stocks. Should data be bad, stocks correct and is yet again correction on UJ. All that beeing said, think main flows for UJ now - USD strength...
So what you're saying is, we want the data that comes out to be good, hopefully. And that I maybe should open a AUD long to hedge the risk that there is a pullback in UJ as people rush to get into the long AUD trade.
  • #967,895
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:23pm Mar 11, 2015 7:23pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Well yeah, there is positive correlation, but is hard to catch flows. I have burned myself on Aussie data like 2 times during February, but all were Aussie trades, not JPY. No matter data, always resulted in Aud buy :/. So could pull USD to correct, and trigger UJ correction. Thats one flow. But there are two other flows: Main is USD king rocks all over the place. Very hard to stop it. Second is Japan stocks. Should data be bad, stocks correct and is yet again correction on UJ. All that beeing said, think main flows for UJ now - USD strength...
Every uptick on USD at this point is 1 tick easier to stopping the rally. Anyone who actually "knew" this shit would pop should be salivating at the prospect of taking profits here it feels like.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #967,896
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:25pm Mar 11, 2015 7:25pm
Quoting takari
{quote} So what you're saying is, we want the data that comes out to be good, hopefully. And that I maybe should open a AUD long to hedge the risk that there is a pullback in UJ as people rush to get into the long AUD trade.
No, what I am saying is such a hard mix of flows is incredibly hard to catch it. In order to do so, I will be watching Nikkei. Am long term trader, I hold positions in still same direction, just should market screw me over, I jump out fast.

Data in 5, gotta watch
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,897
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:27pm Mar 11, 2015 7:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} daily pp is now 0591 ... some possible R 0573 ish... along with 0592 norm..
Thanks Gator. Got into long in NY today and hopefully will be able to clear those. You were badly missed today. ( at least by me )
Intraday only.
  • #967,898
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:32pm Mar 11, 2015 7:32pm
Lol yeh classics. Good data - buy Aussie. See, there is no strong stock market in Australia, so investment cash flow outweights stocks cash flow and is Aud buy, triggers USD stops... Maybe.

2nd cash flow is Nikkei buy, but was not so strong data...So Nikkis stuck :/..but not for long.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,899
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:36pm Mar 11, 2015 7:36pm
EUR was stronger against AUD than USD... that's weird.
  • #967,900
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:38pm Mar 11, 2015 7:38pm
Quoting takari
EUR was stronger against AUD than USD... that's weird.
Market is very weird generally. Better stop trying to figue out why, or you may go nuts.

In the meanwhile... watch that Nikkei.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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