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  • #967,661
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:34am Mar 11, 2015 10:34am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Nope. Only in purely speculative moves it wont but in real supply and demand plays It will DEFINITIVELY carry dollar short term when macro levels are in play... lets leave it there as this is not the place or time for such a discussion. sisse
Some would say it's the other way around, that USD weakness/strength would drive Oil, not the other way around, anyways, I covered a bunch of my oil shorts and will look to add them back higher Does look like a bounce will come , probably back to 50, hopefully not wrong about this.
  • #967,662
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:38am Mar 11, 2015 10:38am
Quoting cedrich2005
{quote} 1.0560
well that would class as selling the bottom... is that wrong, not necessarily so depending on the context.
right now you have the context of an extended rally to the downside, end of day approaching in europe and the risk of selling the bottom and finding yourself in a bounce is significantly higher.
  • #967,663
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:38am Mar 11, 2015 10:38am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Nope. Only in purely speculative moves it wont but in real supply and demand plays It will DEFINITIVELY carry dollar short term when macro levels are in play... lets leave it there as this is not the place or time for such a discussion. sisse
You seeing this US mkt correction? Looks like it will go back to new highs to me... but not sure the selling is finished yet, waiting to scale in..
  • #967,664
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:46am Mar 11, 2015 10:46am
With everyone and there dog short euro or more precisely long dollar.... And I'm one... Will the forex gods allow us a easy set up all the way to parity? Would be nice but I dont think so... I wont be taking any longs unless I see some serious momentum to change my positions...
  • #967,665
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:47am Mar 11, 2015 10:47am
Downward momentum is losing steam. Close shop now.
Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler.
  • #967,666
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:48am Mar 11, 2015 10:48am
SaP retesting mentioned mid from below, while Oil tracking same trajectory with retesting 48.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Oil.JPG Size: 106 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: SaP.JPG Size: 76 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,667
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:49am Mar 11, 2015 10:49am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} well that would class as selling the bottom... is that wrong, not necessarily so depending on the context. right now you have the context of an extended rally to the downside, end of day approaching in europe and the risk of selling the bottom and finding yourself in a bounce is significantly higher.
yes you right we are already in range between 1.0615 and 1.0560.
Maybe because of my risk levarage i don t fill confortable selling in top.
anyway i will try to experiment it on an demo account to see.
in God i trust
  • #967,668
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:49am Mar 11, 2015 10:49am
anyone trading au atm? daily support broke, could be further fall? im long at 7573
  • #967,669
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:49am Mar 11, 2015 10:49am
Have opened some shorts in USD/TRY and USD/NOK.... Should probably do USD CAD as well.. opened up a small gold long.... we'll see how all this turns out. Really looking forward to buying us mkt for a bounce
  • #967,670
  • Edited 11:04am Mar 11, 2015 10:51am | Edited 11:04am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Are you a bit surprised how weak cable turned out to be? It's breezed through 4 key levels (according to my charting) in no time and without any fuss- although the jury is still out on this 499 current breach.
Am like very surprised by cable. But cant fight USD king, shit happens. USD king + GBP drop as colaterral of Eur drop = cable drop. I have deleveraged all trades on 1,526 break, then reloaded @ 1,5055 monthly, and since breakdown I have deleveraged again and now am just waiting for PA to run out of steam and consolidate. Would like to buy some GBPs.

But see, there is also risk event here. Guys gotta elections and markets aint like uncertainity. Think after elections GBP megabuy.

Btw, I got next GU monthly right here at 1,491. Also Geppy in resist. But aint buying it. UJ wanna thrust, EU as well.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,671
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:55am Mar 11, 2015 10:55am
Quoting sisse
Oil held the break for the open range so nothing to see in the euro. Setting the low of week in Euro in play until London goes home... sisse
What is the floor of the range at oil for you??
  • #967,672
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:57am Mar 11, 2015 10:57am
Quoting cedrich2005
{quote} yes you right we are already in range between 1.0615 and 1.0560. Maybe because of my risk levarage i don t fill confortable selling in top. anyway i will try to experiment it on an demo account to see.
by selling the bottom or buying the top you are in effect taking a breakout trade, these are best done after consolidation once a range has built up, and are more effective when it does not mean it has to enter into untested territory to make a return, ie: it is covering fairly recent ground

but whatever you decide gl
  • #967,673
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:57am Mar 11, 2015 10:57am
Quoting mkvy
has a currency ever gone -ve before like -.0100, maybe its possible.. So if you go to buy a coffee in a French cafe they would pay you to buy a coffee...? inflation would be so high the price would double from the point of order to the point of sale
Exchange rate never goes negative cuz its a comparison of 2 currencies...
But if a currency goes to Shitter
Then add more decimal places to the exchange rate
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #967,674
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:57am Mar 11, 2015 10:57am
Short....short.....short....waiting...and short again hahahah 1.0 is comming... very fast!!!
  • #967,675
  • Mar 11, 2015 10:59am Mar 11, 2015 10:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Nope. Only in purely speculative moves it wont but in real supply and demand plays It will DEFINITIVELY carry dollar short term when macro levels are in play... lets leave it there as this is not the place or time for such a discussion. sisse
Hi Sissi, to what extend can the Mexican plan influence the dollar rally? I understood that given the size of the FX market, central banks rarely had any success influencing it.

Mexico to Sell Dollars to Support Peso
https://www.tradingfloor.com/img/pub...go_news_dj.png
"MEXICO CITY--The Bank of Mexico will sell additional dollars to support the peso, which fell this week to its weakest level to date against the U.S. dollar, the foreign exchange commission said on Wednesday.
For the next three months, the central bank will offer $52 million a day at auctions, in addition to the $200 million it sells on days when the peso weakens 1.5% from the previous session's fixing. "

Thank you!
  • #967,676
  • Mar 11, 2015 11:05am Mar 11, 2015 11:05am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} by selling the bottom or buying the top you are in effect taking a breakout trade, these are best done after consolidation once a range has built up, and are more effective when it does not mean it has to enter into untested territory to make a return, ie: it is covering fairly recent ground but whatever you decide gl
Nice post. For quick relevant reference for the OP: the U/CA daily chart after yesterdays close, setting up todays test of (already charted) resistance for those kind of plays.
  • #967,677
  • Mar 11, 2015 11:06am Mar 11, 2015 11:06am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} If the 4 hour manages to close under .0575 the above could be good entries, would like a LL to go with it No close above 0602 as of yet, the 50% spike had me fooled for 0676 bbl
Got both, watching.
  • #967,678
  • Mar 11, 2015 11:09am Mar 11, 2015 11:09am
I am relaxing. No trade yet for the day. Waiting for LON to kiss 0548.
  • #967,679
  • Mar 11, 2015 11:13am Mar 11, 2015 11:13am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} by selling the bottom or buying the top you are in effect taking a breakout trade, these are best done after consolidation once a range has built up, and are more effective when it does not mean it has to enter into untested territory to make a return, ie: it is covering fairly recent ground but whatever you decide gl
you are right maxdoom, i will experiment it on demo to be more confident.
And really thanks i ve learn a lot from you and still learning.
you are just impressive.
in God i trust
  • #967,680
  • Mar 11, 2015 11:15am Mar 11, 2015 11:15am
That's one pretty descending wedge on M15
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
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