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  • #21,041
  • Mar 11, 2015 6:42am Mar 11, 2015 6:42am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Hi T, I'm curious what value do you think the AUD/USD pair would be assuming the Fed normalise their central bank rate to 3.75% (as per the MarketWatch article say by 2017), whilst the RBA kept its current rate of 2.25% on hold. Let's assume commodities prices stay the same, and unemployment is roughly the same in both countries. Do you think it would it go below 6500? Its a hard one to call, but I'm trying to understand various realistic scenario's for a bottom on this pair. I think we will likely see rate rises by the RBA if the AUD/USD...
A long way till 6500.

Weekly chart
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H4 chart with weekly camarilla levels
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Clear downtrend but I expect reaction at 78.6 weekly fib. Look at the history. The pair definitely found buyers there. Also by looking at h4/weekly we can see that L5 stands in alignment with RBA target.
  • #21,042
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:18am Mar 11, 2015 7:18am
Hi T, great analysis on AU, i am sure it will go to 78.xx level, btw what about usdjpy? whats the direction of this pair?
  • #21,043
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:53am Mar 11, 2015 7:53am
Quoting T@rantula
GBPUSD has entered a new bearish momentum and we can see that M 1 2 3 reversal pattern is forming on H1 time frame. Until break of 1.5025 confirms the M GBPUSD may be trapped between 1.5035 and 1.5095. Fresh sellers can be expected at 1.5080-1.5100 zone while the jump above 5110 could accelerate the pair towards 5150. Pound has been resilient against recent USD strength compared to other pairs but today manufacturing and industrial production data can weight on the pair. In the case of 1.5025 break 1.4995 and 1.4950 are targets. {image}
+40 now!
  • #21,044
  • Mar 11, 2015 8:18am Mar 11, 2015 8:18am
5010 has been reached. GBPUSD is following the techs perfectly.
  • #21,045
  • Mar 11, 2015 8:19am Mar 11, 2015 8:19am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} +40 now!
Great call T@rantula , in this instance , was your stop loss placed near 1.50710 ?
PS: I sent you an email at tarantulafx @ yahoo dot com , is that the right address ?
  • #21,046
  • Mar 11, 2015 8:52am Mar 11, 2015 8:52am
Quoting onoff
{quote} Great call T@rantula , in this instance , was your stop loss placed near 1.50710 ? PS: I sent you an email at tarantulafx @ yahoo dot com , is that the right address ?
Actually my stop was placed at 5110. 5055 and 5070 were my entries. Actually it is [email protected]
  • #21,047
  • Mar 11, 2015 11:05am Mar 11, 2015 11:05am
Quoting T@rantula
5010 has been reached. GBPUSD is following the techs perfectly.
Hi T, excellent job and amazing analysis! Thanks!
  • #21,048
  • Mar 12, 2015 4:07am Mar 12, 2015 4:07am
USDJPY is in retracement but as we can see on H1 chart, the pair made a lower high at H3 level. That implies possible continuation of short selling towards 120.70-120.50.

The pair is rejecting L4 support and it is retracing towards POC. POC ( DPP, L3 38.2-50.0 fib, inner trendline ) stands at 121.30-121.45 zone and the pair might reject from the zone towards 120.70-50. We can also see that MACD is showing fresh momentum which implies that now moment sellers could be waiting at POC zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,049
  • Mar 12, 2015 4:20am Mar 12, 2015 4:20am
Quoting margin_stop
{quote} Hi T, excellent job and amazing analysis! Thanks!
Thanks!! Hope u made money
  • #21,050
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:06am Mar 12, 2015 6:06am
Quoting T@rantula
USDJPY is in retracement but as we can see on H1 chart, the pair made a lower high at H3 level. That implies possible continuation of short selling towards 120.70-120.50. The pair is rejecting L4 support and it is retracing towards POC. POC ( DPP, L3 38.2-50.0 fib, inner trendline ) stands at 121.30-121.45 zone and the pair might reject from the zone towards 120.70-50. We can also see that MACD is showing fresh momentum which implies that now moment sellers could be waiting at POC zone. {image}
Going down as planned
  • #21,051
  • Mar 12, 2015 7:40am Mar 12, 2015 7:40am
USDJPY target has been hit after POC rejection!
  • #21,052
  • Mar 12, 2015 10:32am Mar 12, 2015 10:32am
nice JPY analysis, although I slightly missed entry point at 121.30 where i put my sell limit
  • #21,053
  • Mar 12, 2015 10:43am Mar 12, 2015 10:43am
Quoting margin_stop
nice JPY analysis, although I slightly missed entry point at 121.30 where i put my sell limit
Aw...u missed it by 3 points ...
  • #21,054
  • Mar 13, 2015 5:51am Mar 13, 2015 5:51am
NZDUSD has reversed the trend after RBNZ decided to keep the rates unchanged. From technical standpoint NZDUSD is standing at first POC (L3, 38.2) at 0.7330 currently and it could bounce off this level towards 0.7430. If H1 candle closes above the level that could be a signal ofr the possible bounce.
However if there is a deeper intraday correction the pair is expected to drop towards 0.7290 region where it should bounce again towards 0.7330 and 0.7430 subsequently. POC2 ( historical buyers, L4, 61.8%, inner trend line ) shows even more confluence then POC1.

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  • #21,055
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:17am Mar 13, 2015 8:17am
First rejection good, 7350 needs to break for further upside
  • #21,056
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:41am Mar 13, 2015 8:41am
Also, pay attention to EURUSD 1.0555. If that breaks we might test 1.0520.
  • #21,057
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:57am Mar 13, 2015 8:57am
Quoting T@rantula
Also, pay attention to EURUSD 1.0555. If that breaks we might test 1.0520.
it is happening now

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  • #21,058
  • Edited 9:50am Mar 13, 2015 9:04am | Edited 9:50am
Closed at 5170, 55 pips +.... Thank you for advice T@rantula... :-)
  • #21,059
  • Mar 13, 2015 9:13am Mar 13, 2015 9:13am
Done for the week.....
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  • #21,060
  • Mar 13, 2015 9:23am Mar 13, 2015 9:23am
Quoting T@rantula
First rejection good, 7350 needs to break for further upside
is this setup still valid?
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