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Spider's Den

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  • Post #21,041
  • Quote
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:42am Mar 11, 2015 7:42am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting PariCovek
Disliked
{quote} Hi T, I'm curious what value do you think the AUD/USD pair would be assuming the Fed normalise their central bank rate to 3.75% (as per the MarketWatch article say by 2017), whilst the RBA kept its current rate of 2.25% on hold. Let's assume commodities prices stay the same, and unemployment is roughly the same in both countries. Do you think it would it go below 6500? Its a hard one to call, but I'm trying to understand various realistic scenario's for a bottom on this pair. I think we will likely see rate rises by the RBA if the AUD/USD...
Ignored
A long way till 6500.

Weekly chart
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H4 chart with weekly camarilla levels
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Clear downtrend but I expect reaction at 78.6 weekly fib. Look at the history. The pair definitely found buyers there. Also by looking at h4/weekly we can see that L5 stands in alignment with RBA target.
 
 
  • Post #21,042
  • Quote
  • Mar 11, 2015 8:18am Mar 11, 2015 8:18am
  •  xetrader
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Apr 2013 | 214 Posts
Hi T, great analysis on AU, i am sure it will go to 78.xx level, btw what about usdjpy? whats the direction of this pair?
 
 
  • Post #21,043
  • Quote
  • Mar 11, 2015 8:53am Mar 11, 2015 8:53am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting [email protected]
Disliked
GBPUSD has entered a new bearish momentum and we can see that M 1 2 3 reversal pattern is forming on H1 time frame. Until break of 1.5025 confirms the M GBPUSD may be trapped between 1.5035 and 1.5095. Fresh sellers can be expected at 1.5080-1.5100 zone while the jump above 5110 could accelerate the pair towards 5150. Pound has been resilient against recent USD strength compared to other pairs but today manufacturing and industrial production data can weight on the pair. In the case of 1.5025 break 1.4995 and 1.4950 are targets. {image}
Ignored
+40 now!
 
 
  • Post #21,044
  • Quote
  • Mar 11, 2015 9:18am Mar 11, 2015 9:18am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
5010 has been reached. GBPUSD is following the techs perfectly.
 
 
  • Post #21,045
  • Quote
  • Mar 11, 2015 9:19am Mar 11, 2015 9:19am
  •  onoff
  • | Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Member | 41 Posts
Quoting [email protected]
Disliked
{quote} +40 now!
Ignored
Great call [email protected] , in this instance , was your stop loss placed near 1.50710 ?
PS: I sent you an email at tarantulafx @ yahoo dot com , is that the right address ?
 
 
  • Post #21,046
  • Quote
  • Mar 11, 2015 9:52am Mar 11, 2015 9:52am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting onoff
Disliked
{quote} Great call [email protected] , in this instance , was your stop loss placed near 1.50710 ? PS: I sent you an email at tarantulafx @ yahoo dot com , is that the right address ?
Ignored
Actually my stop was placed at 5110. 5055 and 5070 were my entries. Actually it is [email protected]
 
 
  • Post #21,047
  • Quote
  • Mar 11, 2015 12:05pm Mar 11, 2015 12:05pm
  •  margin_stop
  • | Joined May 2013 | Status: Member | 71 Posts
Quoting [email protected]
Disliked
5010 has been reached. GBPUSD is following the techs perfectly.
Ignored
Hi T, excellent job and amazing analysis! Thanks!
 
 
  • Post #21,048
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 5:07am Mar 12, 2015 5:07am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
USDJPY is in retracement but as we can see on H1 chart, the pair made a lower high at H3 level. That implies possible continuation of short selling towards 120.70-120.50.

The pair is rejecting L4 support and it is retracing towards POC. POC ( DPP, L3 38.2-50.0 fib, inner trendline ) stands at 121.30-121.45 zone and the pair might reject from the zone towards 120.70-50. We can also see that MACD is showing fresh momentum which implies that now moment sellers could be waiting at POC zone.

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  • Post #21,049
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 5:20am Mar 12, 2015 5:20am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting margin_stop
Disliked
{quote} Hi T, excellent job and amazing analysis! Thanks!
Ignored
Thanks!! Hope u made money
 
 
  • Post #21,050
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 7:06am Mar 12, 2015 7:06am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting [email protected]
Disliked
USDJPY is in retracement but as we can see on H1 chart, the pair made a lower high at H3 level. That implies possible continuation of short selling towards 120.70-120.50. The pair is rejecting L4 support and it is retracing towards POC. POC ( DPP, L3 38.2-50.0 fib, inner trendline ) stands at 121.30-121.45 zone and the pair might reject from the zone towards 120.70-50. We can also see that MACD is showing fresh momentum which implies that now moment sellers could be waiting at POC zone. {image}
Ignored
Going down as planned
 
 
  • Post #21,051
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 8:40am Mar 12, 2015 8:40am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
USDJPY target has been hit after POC rejection!
 
 
  • Post #21,052
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 11:32am Mar 12, 2015 11:32am
  •  margin_stop
  • | Joined May 2013 | Status: Member | 71 Posts
nice JPY analysis, although I slightly missed entry point at 121.30 where i put my sell limit
 
 
  • Post #21,053
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 11:43am Mar 12, 2015 11:43am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting margin_stop
Disliked
nice JPY analysis, although I slightly missed entry point at 121.30 where i put my sell limit
Ignored
Aw...u missed it by 3 points ...
 
 
  • Post #21,054
  • Quote
  • Mar 13, 2015 6:51am Mar 13, 2015 6:51am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
NZDUSD has reversed the trend after RBNZ decided to keep the rates unchanged. From technical standpoint NZDUSD is standing at first POC (L3, 38.2) at 0.7330 currently and it could bounce off this level towards 0.7430. If H1 candle closes above the level that could be a signal ofr the possible bounce.
However if there is a deeper intraday correction the pair is expected to drop towards 0.7290 region where it should bounce again towards 0.7330 and 0.7430 subsequently. POC2 ( historical buyers, L4, 61.8%, inner trend line ) shows even more confluence then POC1.

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  • Post #21,055
  • Quote
  • Mar 13, 2015 9:17am Mar 13, 2015 9:17am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
First rejection good, 7350 needs to break for further upside
 
 
  • Post #21,056
  • Quote
  • Mar 13, 2015 9:41am Mar 13, 2015 9:41am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Also, pay attention to EURUSD 1.0555. If that breaks we might test 1.0520.
 
 
  • Post #21,057
  • Quote
  • Mar 13, 2015 9:57am Mar 13, 2015 9:57am
  •  [email protected]
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Quoting [email protected]
Disliked
Also, pay attention to EURUSD 1.0555. If that breaks we might test 1.0520.
Ignored
it is happening now

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  • Post #21,058
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:50am Mar 13, 2015 10:04am | Edited 10:50am
  •  JohnyFX
  • | Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Member | 10 Posts
Closed at 5170, 55 pips +.... Thank you for advice [email protected] :-)
 
 
  • Post #21,059
  • Quote
  • Mar 13, 2015 10:13am Mar 13, 2015 10:13am
  •  kalyan
  • | Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Member | 243 Posts
Done for the week.....
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  • Post #21,060
  • Quote
  • Mar 13, 2015 10:23am Mar 13, 2015 10:23am
  •  margin_stop
  • | Joined May 2013 | Status: Member | 71 Posts
Quoting [email protected]
Disliked
First rejection good, 7350 needs to break for further upside
Ignored
is this setup still valid?
 
 
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