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  • #967,441
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:48am Mar 11, 2015 3:48am
Quoting Vermillion
Get ready for a potential spike up for the eur/usd within the next week or so. The eur/usd is getting sold massively as of late, and while it's inevitable, the rate at which it's falling makes me VERY cautious about shorting right now. You don't simply freefall in a currency; there's always bounces worth hundreds of pips. I'm hoping the spike comes up to around 1.085/1.09 at least. That's my optimal place to short right now.
Actually....
can i ask you something?? when USDJPY devalued from say 70 to 120, did you see it fall much from 120??? say even a 23.8% retracement?? well im sorry to say when something gets devalued or whne a currency pair has a direction, it has a direction, and very often there is REAL money flow behind a large trending movement, my advise is simply NOT to bet against it... because theres no guarantee of a bounce or some bullshit like that.... just look at USDJPY as an example...
How many dumb retail traders who thought oh look USDJPY went from 70 to 100, thats a 3000 pip rally, surely theres gona be a pullback/retracement.... Never happened...........

Do not live by the rule that What goes up must come down in forex.... im warning you... dont... because this is a huge mistake for every amateur trader here... when something has fallen... what it COULD do is find a new norm say at 0.88 for EURUSD, and grind out at a level down there for years before the EURO fundamentals pick up enough to make the USD look bad enough to go long Euro against the USD.....

dont think that if something drops hard that there MUST be a retracement.... because thats a huge mistake in every noob trader mindset.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #967,442
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:50am Mar 11, 2015 3:50am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} dont think that if something drops hard that there MUST be a retracement.... because thats a huge mistake in every noob trader mindset.....
Thanks for the pointer.
  • #967,443
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:53am Mar 11, 2015 3:53am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Actually.... can i ask you something?? when USDJPY devalued from say 70 to 120, did you see it fall much from 120??? say even a 23.8% retracement?? well im sorry to say when something gets devalued or whne a currency pair has a direction, it has a direction, and very often there is REAL money flow behind a large trending movement, my advise is simply NOT to bet against it... because theres no guarantee of a bounce or some bullshit like that.... just look at USDJPY as an example... How many dumb retail traders who thought oh look USDJPY went...

So true!! I dont have much exp in forex and actually, when euro drop that much this week, I feel fear that it may rebounce until i recognize that there is no actual, i mean fundamental, reason for that
  • #967,444
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:57am Mar 11, 2015 3:57am
Quoting deltaone
short @1.07013 tsl -20 tp +60 lets see if i can make money while being asleep again. good night!
some get payed for sleeping: tp hit. +60 again
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #967,445
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:58am Mar 11, 2015 3:58am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Actually.... can i ask you something?? when USDJPY devalued from say 70 to 120, did you see it fall much from 120??? say even a 23.8% retracement?? well im sorry to say when something gets devalued or whne a currency pair has a direction, it has a direction, and very often there is REAL money flow behind a large trending movement, my advise is simply NOT to bet against it... because theres no guarantee of a bounce or some bullshit like that.... just look at USDJPY as an example... How many dumb retail traders who thought oh look USDJPY went...
Totally agree with the retracements never to come. Or at least a long while. I used to try to catch reversals all the time when I started trading, and the trend can go forever..
  • #967,446
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:58am Mar 11, 2015 3:58am
please by dear god please get out of the amateur trading mind set...

phrase like these are only there limit your successes.

"what cant go up must come down"
"what goes up must come down"
"Barrier Option will hold"
"Will take utmost action to defend PEG" - SNB....
"will act at timely matter"

Honestly. Question and reflect upon what you hear or read...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #967,447
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:00am Mar 11, 2015 4:00am
Quoting 2012mysterio
{quote} Totally agree with the retracements never to come. Or at least a long while. I used to try to catch reversals all the time when I started trading, and the trend can go forever..
it became ever so clear to me when Divergence even in the daily chart was only a 50/50 chance that a divergence retracement would come into fruition....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #967,448
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:03am Mar 11, 2015 4:03am
don't think we are there yet, but with the stimulus of USD, Oil and 0% interest rates Europe might recover a lot faster then currently expected

USDOLLAR D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #967,449
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:08am Mar 11, 2015 4:08am
its funny if ecb count so much oil prices
  • #967,450
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:09am Mar 11, 2015 4:09am
Quoting USD-Bear
don't think we are there yet, but with the stimulus of USD, Oil and 0% interest rates Europe might recover a lot faster then currently expected USDOLLAR D1: {image}
well atleast Europe didnt wait 30 years like Japan did to recover....
my guess is with stimulation its probaly closer to the timeframe of say 3-5 years.... took USD QE 3 (which was infinite easing until recovery), 4 years to get US equities to create historical highs.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #967,451
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:12am Mar 11, 2015 4:12am
TP3 hmm next TP 4 or elongated wave 5
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  • #967,452
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:14am Mar 11, 2015 4:14am
1h
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  • #967,453
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:23am Mar 11, 2015 4:23am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} GU is interesting. Has been at the 4hr 78.6 fib during this consolidation and now has potential to break the wedge topside, but as I said before I don't trust Franky. As I type he is pulling back the 5m BO.
Unlikely though if you follow Carney statement yesterday that inflation is going near zero


Quoting Matts Micro
Was wondering about the China data too. I'm not great with Fundies but figured it had something to do with lack of imports (for AU) to have huge consequences. like I said though
It was expected to perform less so no surprise there

Dollar is still the king of the hill until next FOMC

Weird times to open new swing trades

Probably will see tweet from BOJ sooner or later
  • #967,454
  • Edited 5:12am Mar 11, 2015 4:26am | Edited 5:12am
I'll try a long from 1.0622

edit: and out.....most likely going down to 1.0427
  • #967,455
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:27am Mar 11, 2015 4:27am
EU moves are so pathetic, it does not even make it to my sell limits LOL
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #967,456
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:34am Mar 11, 2015 4:34am
Quoting sisse
{quote} In any case, v. interesting Europe opening range with equities in the mood for a rally. Euro ready for the first test 1.066x for a play 1.082x until the FED meeting. 1.072x only level to track for the session. To the other side nothing to see for my taste. sisse
Euro couldn't even test 1.066x in the opening range and now testing the bottom of the major fundamental support at the 1.05xx handle.

Well done all that are still holding shorts. Nothing to do here unless we get back to 1.066x for NY.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #967,457
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:35am Mar 11, 2015 4:35am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Unlikely though if you follow Carney statement yesterday that inflation is going near zero {quote} It was expected to perform less so no surprise there Dollar is still the king of the hill until next FOMC Weird times to open new swing trades Probably will see tweet from BOJ sooner or later
He's obviously full of shit, how can inflation be near 0 when their currency just tanked over 10% in past year. That's a lot of extra costs.
  • #967,458
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:37am Mar 11, 2015 4:37am
Quoting sisse
{quote} we'll trying to blindly catch a falling knife at the dead hours of the day is never a good idea .... In any case, v. interesting Europe opening range with equities in the mood for a rally. Euro ready for the first test 1.066x for a play 1.082x until the FED meeting. 1.072x only level to track for the session. To the other side nothing to see for my taste. sisse
590's is the next one to try... Major bear target getting closer (340's) so if a correction to happen before - thats the place..
69
  • #967,459
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:39am Mar 11, 2015 4:39am
Quoting cspip
I'll try a long from 1.0622
Good luck. Seriously good luck.
Time waits for no one
  • #967,460
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:45am Mar 11, 2015 4:45am
Thread is quiet after it made new lows.
Intraday only.
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